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An Analytical Approach to Competition?
Whenever I have analyzed new companies or new markets, accurately measuring and predicting competition proves incredibly challenging. Who already dominates the market? How will existing companies respond to new products/features?

In early-stage venture investing, understanding existing competitors is truly an art. For example, I have invested in certain early-stage startups that hope to directly compete with Stripe. Stripe is definitely the 10,000 lb. gorilla/unicorn/etc. in the room. It is extremely difficult to analyze how a startup will take on existing competitors - especially in new and emerging markets.

Building off the fintech example, Square's Cash App competition with Paypal's existing tool, Venmo, would be challenging to initially predict and interpret. In my opinion, the Cash App is currently eating Venmo's lunch. But how would an investor analyze Square as a competitor to Paypal before the competition actually "occurs"?

I wanted to open up my basic question to members of the community - does anyone have a truly analytical, methodical approach to interpreting competition? As in, how does one pick one stock over 2-3 existing competitors? Zoom is a great example of a company in an incredibly competitive market that has emerged as a clear winner (at least for now). Several years prior, however, Zoom's competitors seemed incredibly daunting (Microsoft, Google, etc.).

How do investors in this community approach competition? I have a few general factors below on how to think of existing and future competition, but I would love to hear from the community.

  1. Market Size - What is the current market and what percentage of that market do existing companies own?
  2. Customer NPS - How much do customers LOVE an existing product? Peloton's community is OBSESSED with the bike. It will be difficult for competitors to pry customers from the product.
  3. Focus - Does the competitor really focus on this market/product, or is it ancillary to their core product? AppFolio recently sold their legaltech product suite to really focus on their core property management SaaS tool.
  4. Financial Metrics - Does one company have the cash on hand to compete? Are they drowning in debt? What is their commitment to R&D?
  5. Legacy Industries - How fast can "legacy" competitors respond to competitors? I read an anecdote that some legacy insurance companies launched a horrendous insurance product called "Limeade" to compete with "Lemonade" -- Lemonade has done incredibly well in part because their competitors (legacy insurance companies) cannot rapidly innovate.
  6. Winner Take All Market? - Is there one clear "winner" to this market? Can multiple players compete? Payment processing is a great example of a market with room for multiple "winning" competitors.

Anything that I am missing? Thanks in advance!

Ryan C.'s avatar
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