Hi Everyone,

To many, especially in the west, the situation seemed to pop up out of the blue. I personally thought Putin was bluffing / simply putting on a show of force with the leadup to the invasion.. If I had known what I know now, I would not have thought this.

From the Russian and Ukrainian perspective this is just a continuation of a war that has been raging since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Putin clearly views NATO as a threat and feels taking Ukraine to be a priority for Russian national security. Here are a few key points on this subject (P.S. I am not condoning what Russia is doing, just trying to get in their head to understand why. Frankly, Go Ukraine! Fuck Russia!)

Geography - Russia sits on the Norther European Plain which is a relatively flat wide open area that is very hard to defend. The Russians have been invaded this way many times in history from Napoleon to the Nazi's. The Russians are acutely aware that if an enemy can break through to the plain, it is easy to cover vast areas all the way to Moscow.

Above is a depiction of how this plain opens up and with this perspective, you can see how Ukraine is essentially a door to Russia, especially considering Belarus is already a de-facto Russian state.

This is what the Nazi's dealt with in the fall before being beaten (mainly by the Russian winter) but the world would have looked much different had their Blitzkrieg been able to take Moscow before the mud set in.

Oil and Gas This is a BIG ONE and in my opinion the biggest factor as to why this is happening. Russia is a Petrostate that is currently the 2nd largest producer of oil in the world... and the west needs that energy.. notice all the sanctions but none are directly on the oil and gas industry. Yes, companies like $BP and $XOM are exiting their partnerships on their own accord but that does not mean no one is buying Russian oil. Quite the contrary, even here in the US we are still buying 7% of our daily consumption from the Russians. Ukraine sits on top of large reserves of both oil and natural gas. Russia took Crimea in 2014 to essentially solidify themselves as the only game in town to supply the rest of Europe with energy effectively cementing their status on the world stage.

Most of the natural gas in Ukraine is locked up in shale, but with Fracking technology, this can now be drilled and if sold to Europe, would threaten the Russians main revenue stream. By taking it, again, in their eyes control the energy and therefore have significant leverage over the rest of Europe.

Water - This should almost be a subset of the above section as it relates specifically to Crimea. As for mentioned, the Russians took it for the oil and gas plus the ports to move it over the black sea and onto the rest of the world. When they did this in 2014, the Ukrainians dammed the North Crimean Canal that fed the Crimean peninsula with precious water (it is naturally a desert basically) and forced the Russians to truck fresh water in causing enormous cost and thwarted their efforts significantly.

I drew the canal in blue on the map to show how the fresh water flows from the Dnieper river to the peninsula. In short, the Russians want the water back on.

While the sanctions have been unprecedented unfortunately, I think the only people that they are hurting are the Russian people. As demonstrated earlier, the Kremlin is concerned with cornering the oil and gas market. The Russian State is funded almost exclusively by this industry so, without sanctions there, I do not see the Russian military running out of money to keep this going. I guess the thought is that if you put the Russian people in enough financial distress they will pressure Putin (the state) to cave. However, I think this is predicated on Putin caring about his people. Judging by the fact he is rounding up anyone who protests, this doesn't seem to be the case in my opinion. This is a war, a real one, wars are won with bullets and soldiers. Sanctions will help, but I fear for the Ukrainians despite their resilience and honestly the most heroic bad ass stance I have seen a people take in my lifetime.

Honestly, no one knows, but I will give you my best answer. I suspect Putin will point to the peace talks today that evidently failed (if they ever had a chance) to show the world, "look I tried". Now that he can point to it, and with Rasputitsa approaching he will look to crush all opposition as quickly as possible. Once he takes Ukraine, I suspect he sits tight and uses his leverage in the energy industry to pressure the west into easing sanctions etc. over time. I hope that Ukraine can hold them off and win this, but I also wish that other nations, including mine (The US) would say fuck NATO we are standing up to you Putin. No Article 5 just we wont stand for this. I do not think this will happen unfortunately as Putin has preempted this move by moving up his Nuclear Status which I believe was more directed at the West than to the Ukraine itself. He wants the resources and people to be part of Russia, nuclear fallout would put that on hold for decades.