Hedge Vision's avatar
$114.9m follower assets
BlackRock Discloses Massive Position in $BP?
Sometime during May, BlackRock acquired 1.93 billion shares of $BP, cementing their bullish stance on oil and gas. They are now the largest shareholder by a wide margin with a 10.1% stake.

I'm not seeing this publicized anywhere, which makes me think that I'm interpreting it wrong. Any thoughts?

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What to watch for the week of 5/2/22.
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? Here’s a watchlist that I created of some potential catalysts I’ll be keeping an eye on and looking to trade for the week beginning May 2nd. Feel free to save it for reference, share it in your trade groups and repost it on your social media page. Also be sure to follow me. Let me know what you’ll be watching in the comments.

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sam stribling's avatar
$107.9m follower assets
Russia Vs. Ukraine Rundown
Hi Everyone,

The situation in Ukraine has been dominating the headlines but I personally was struggling to get enough information to make my own assessment of what is happening and want to take some time to share my findings with everyone.

To many, especially in the west, the situation seemed to pop up out of the blue. I personally thought Putin was bluffing / simply putting on a show of force with the leadup to the invasion.. If I had known what I know now, I would not have thought this.

From the Russian and Ukrainian perspective this is just a continuation of a war that has been raging since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Putin clearly views NATO as a threat and feels taking Ukraine to be a priority for Russian national security. Here are a few key points on this subject (P.S. I am not condoning what Russia is doing, just trying to get in their head to understand why. Frankly, Go Ukraine! Fuck Russia!)
Geography - Russia sits on the Norther European Plain which is a relatively flat wide open area that is very hard to defend. The Russians have been invaded this way many times in history from Napoleon to the Nazi's. The Russians are acutely aware that if an enemy can break through to the plain, it is easy to cover vast areas all the way to Moscow.

Above is a depiction of how this plain opens up and with this perspective, you can see how Ukraine is essentially a door to Russia, especially considering Belarus is already a de-facto Russian state.
  • Weather This to me explains the "why now" part of the equation. What you need to know is "Rasputitsa" which describes the spring as a "mud season" making the movement of troops to be nearly impossible. This is what caused the Nazi's to fail in their invasion. The Russians are simply moving while the ground is frozen and their tanks / equipment are able to.

This is what the Nazi's dealt with in the fall before being beaten (mainly by the Russian winter) but the world would have looked much different had their Blitzkrieg been able to take Moscow before the mud set in.
Oil and Gas This is a BIG ONE and in my opinion the biggest factor as to why this is happening. Russia is a Petrostate that is currently the 2nd largest producer of oil in the world... and the west needs that energy.. notice all the sanctions but none are directly on the oil and gas industry. Yes, companies like $BP and $XOM are exiting their partnerships on their own accord but that does not mean no one is buying Russian oil. Quite the contrary, even here in the US we are still buying 7% of our daily consumption from the Russians. Ukraine sits on top of large reserves of both oil and natural gas. Russia took Crimea in 2014 to essentially solidify themselves as the only game in town to supply the rest of Europe with energy effectively cementing their status on the world stage.

Most of the natural gas in Ukraine is locked up in shale, but with Fracking technology, this can now be drilled and if sold to Europe, would threaten the Russians main revenue stream. By taking it, again, in their eyes control the energy and therefore have significant leverage over the rest of Europe.

Water - This should almost be a subset of the above section as it relates specifically to Crimea. As for mentioned, the Russians took it for the oil and gas plus the ports to move it over the black sea and onto the rest of the world. When they did this in 2014, the Ukrainians dammed the North Crimean Canal that fed the Crimean peninsula with precious water (it is naturally a desert basically) and forced the Russians to truck fresh water in causing enormous cost and thwarted their efforts significantly.

I drew the canal in blue on the map to show how the fresh water flows from the Dnieper river to the peninsula. In short, the Russians want the water back on.

Now that we have laid out these factors, it is a bit more clear as to why the Russians invaded. From their perspective, they can close access to the Northern European Plain that is a significant security risk to Moscow, monopolize the oil and gas reserves for Europe (and largely the world), and supply their existing oil/gas infrastructure with fresh water in Crimea.

What does Putin Want?
  • Ukraine to never be a part of NATO
  • NATO to withdraw forces to the pre-1997 lines (effectively east of Poland)
  • NATO to freeze its partnership permanently
  • To control and dominate the oil and gas industry

My take on Sanctions / the West's response:
While the sanctions have been unprecedented unfortunately, I think the only people that they are hurting are the Russian people. As demonstrated earlier, the Kremlin is concerned with cornering the oil and gas market. The Russian State is funded almost exclusively by this industry so, without sanctions there, I do not see the Russian military running out of money to keep this going. I guess the thought is that if you put the Russian people in enough financial distress they will pressure Putin (the state) to cave. However, I think this is predicated on Putin caring about his people. Judging by the fact he is rounding up anyone who protests, this doesn't seem to be the case in my opinion. This is a war, a real one, wars are won with bullets and soldiers. Sanctions will help, but I fear for the Ukrainians despite their resilience and honestly the most heroic bad ass stance I have seen a people take in my lifetime.

What Happens Next?
Honestly, no one knows, but I will give you my best answer. I suspect Putin will point to the peace talks today that evidently failed (if they ever had a chance) to show the world, "look I tried". Now that he can point to it, and with Rasputitsa approaching he will look to crush all opposition as quickly as possible. Once he takes Ukraine, I suspect he sits tight and uses his leverage in the energy industry to pressure the west into easing sanctions etc. over time. I hope that Ukraine can hold them off and win this, but I also wish that other nations, including mine (The US) would say fuck NATO we are standing up to you Putin. No Article 5 just we wont stand for this. I do not think this will happen unfortunately as Putin has preempted this move by moving up his Nuclear Status which I believe was more directed at the West than to the Ukraine itself. He wants the resources and people to be part of Russia, nuclear fallout would put that on hold for decades.

My thoughts and prayers are with the people of Ukraine. I hope that they can hold back the Russians and that the international community can find a way to help them in more than just financial ways without setting off another world war.
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Really great overview— thanks for putting this together & providing background. The world is watching closely.
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My investing strategy
My long term investing strategy consists of mostly ETFs. I like to use M1 Finance because I can group multiple ETFs and stocks together into pies essentially creating my own ETF. ETFs are great because they can provide safety and consistency.
Here’s the break down of my pies on M1 Finance:
30% Income ETF: this pie includes ETFs that pay a high dividend yield and 2 that are tax advantaged. This includes $EVT $QYLD $RYLD $XYLD $HDV $DVY $HTD $JEPI $NUSI $UTG
25% Growth ETF: this includes ETFs with growth potential and different objectives and holdings. This includes $ENFR $DGRO $SCHD $VGT $EELV $VNQ
25% MLP: this includes master limited partnerships. These are a different type of investment that can offer high returns and tax advantages. This includes $AB $CEQP $EVA $MPLX $MMP $USAC
20% Dividend growth ETF: this is my own ETF I made of stocks with growth and consistent dividends. This includes $AAPL $ABBV $ABR $APTS $AVGO $BLK $BAC $BCE $BMO $BP $BXMT $CAT $CSCO $CVX $ENB $EQR $ESS $HRZN $HTA $IIPR $JPM $KB $KIM $KO $LYB $MMM $MO $MPW $MSB $MSFT $NEWT $NKE $O $OHI $OKE $PRU $RY $SBLK $SKT $STAG $STWD $TD $TGT $VZ $WPC $XOM
I use my Fidelity account to pick individual growth stocks and my TD Ameritrade account to swing trade.
Strategy: growth and income, mix of high and moderate risk
Dividend yield: 5.95%
Last year return: 12.29%
M1 Finance total holdings: 68 (16 ETFs)
Thanks for sharing about your ETF strategy—

I think I remember hearing a bit about your Master Limited Partnership investing a while ago. I forget, what we’re the tax benefits associated with those?
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Taylor's avatar
$96.8m follower assets
1 of 4
Portfolio Update - February 7th
Figured I would hop on the trend today and share my full portfolio.

This encompasses 3 separate portfolios; my long term retirement IRA, my higher risk/higher reward 1-5 year investments, and my cryptocurrency account.

My biggest surprise on allocation is $BP to be honest, not much of a traditional energy follower, however, am interested in seeing what happens with oil over the next few months as well as their foray into the renewable energy space.

Even at 6% allocation, I may continue to add to $CRWD at these prices. The cybersecurity business is picking up, even amongst companies I work with and the state of Massachusetts.

Not included in here is recent starter positions in $JOBY $CORZ $SOFI and $CHPT

Would love to hear your thoughts // roast my portfolio!
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Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 7th - 11th)
Hey guys!

A key week is ahead of us! Here's what I'm interested in:

  • $APPS - One of my largest holdings. I'd like an update on the progress of single-tap and the tests they were running with Meta $FB. I'm also interested in seeing how their device footprint is expanding after their latest deals.
  • $DIS - They've invested heavily on Marvel and Star Wars series for Disney+, so let's see if this translates to lower churn and higher growth.
  • $NET - Really interesting stock but the valuation seems too high. Let's see if there's a good opportunity to enter post-earnings.

Good luck!

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:

TUE:

WED:

THU:

FRI:
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February earnings
I think upcoming earnings are going to be really important in this volatile market. Companies will likely get punished (further) on even slightly bad results or outlook, and I'm hopeful strong earnings like we saw with $TEAM or $AAPL will buoy the overall market or at least software sector that I'm playing close attention to.

Personally, I have a handful of companies on my buy list including $CRM, $COUP, $ESTC, $SMAR, $POSH, but will only do so once they make it past earnings either scathed (lower price) or unscathed (peace of mind) :)

So we've put together our most anticipated earnings for all of Feb!


Keep an eye out!
2: $FB $ABBV $TMO $NVS
3: $AMZN $LLY $MRK $TNX
21: $UIS
28: $JLL TGNA $LAZR $SAIL
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Upcoming Earnings Calendar! (Nov 1-5)
Hey guys! Here's next week's earnings calendar! Several very interesting companies set to report earnings. Here's the one's I'm most excited about and why:

  • $APPS: any sign of iOS ad dollars shifting to android (Digital Turbine's revenues are mostly from android).
  • $Z: an update on the real estate market and iBuying
  • $LYFT and $UBER: is mobility in the US back to pre-pandemic levels?
  • $COIN metrics on the NFT market.
  • $PENN and $DKNG update on the mobile sports betting market.
  • $ATVI number of Call of Duty Warzone players. The last reported number was 100MM.
  • $CRSR: comments on the supply chain issues they're experiencing.
  • $MELI: update on the Brazilian e-commerce market. Relevant for $SE's expansion.
Comment below which earnings report you are looking forward to the most!
Friendly reminder: you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY


THURSDAY

FRIDAY
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