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$FSLY $EXPI $ETSY Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Fastly, Inc. ($FSLY) - Reporting earnings on Wednesday (5/4) afternoon
Fastly is very much on my Sell Watchlist. Anyone who has followed growth stocks the past year knows how poorly Fastly has performed. A repeat of the 22% revenue growth in 2021 is not going to cut it.

Here's what I need to see to keep my invested:

  • >35% revenue growth
  • Gross profit margins back above 55%
  • Net income and FCF much closer to breakeven
  • Customer growth and growth of customers generating >$1MM >25%
  • DBNER >125%
  • NRR >110%

The above doesn't have to happen this quarter but they have to be moving in those directions and achieve them by end of 2022. This thesis is almost broken and my trust in management is almost entirely gone.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 7th highest in my portfolio (ugh)
Time since first buy: 1.87 years
Number of purchases since: 5
Annualized return: (55.8%)
Annualized $SPY return: 11.7%
Annualized $QQQ return: 8.1%


eXp World Holdings, Inc. ($EXPI) - Reporting earnings on Wednesday (5/4) morning
This is one I'm very intrigued. They have a CAGR of 134% since 2016, which is wild. Gross profit margins have also dropped from 13.3% then to 7.8% in 2021. They are FCF positive and actually have a P/FCF of just 9. FCF/S is just 6.2% though. Are they going to be able to maintain this when the housing market goes back to normal? Will the housing market ever go back to normal?

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Can revenue growth keep going?
  • Will net profit margins continue increasing?
  • Will gross profit margins keep getting worse?
  • Will agents keep signing up and will transactions and volume keep flowing?

Current position: N/A - This is on my Buy Watchlist


Etsy, Inc. ($ETSY) - Reporting earnings Wednesday (5/4) afternoon
Oooh, Etsy, quite the polarizing company these days. They went from 30-35% revenue growth to 111% in 2020 but then seemed to retain that pull-forward by returning to 35% growth in 2021 (instead of decelerating below pre-pandemic levels). However, most of that 35% was in Q1 2021 over Q1 2020, which was largely unaffected by COVID. If we were looking at just Q2-Q4 2021 over 2020, growth was actually 19%. I genuinely don't know what we'll see in 2022.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • What will revenue growth look like. Will management comment on the seller strike that began in Q2?
  • Sellers is growing much faster than buyers (72% vs 18% in 2021). Having a lot more things for sale is only useful if more people are coming in to buy.
  • Very curious where the Habitual Buyers (TTM) number falls in Q1. 8.2MM would be nice.
  • The three KPIs I find most important are Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS), GMS per Active Buyer, and Take Rate. I don't really have any expectations on where these should land. I'll just be very curiously looking them over to get a sense of where Etsy may be heading.


Current position:
Total cost basis: 17th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.01 years
Number of purchases since: 2
Annualized return: (55.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: (0.7%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (6.8%)

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