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BigCommerce Holdings, Inc. ($BIGC) - Reporting Monday (5/2) afternoon
This company has not treated me well. I first began buying at ~$111, not too far from their all-time high. It has been a slow, steady march downwards. I added at $102, $94, $69, and $58. I'm currently down ~78%. Woof. BigCommerce is currently on my Sell WatchlistI need to see some marked improvement in expenses, FCF, and accelerating growth.
Here's what I'll be looking for:
- Management guided for $277.6MM FY revenue at the midpoint and $63.5MM in Q1. That FY revenue growth isn't good enough for me. It would be a deceleration of growth (60% in 2019, 36% in 2020, 44% un 2021) to 26%. I want to see a hefty Q1 revenue beat. Show me management sandbagged guidance, which I'm ok with.
- Net Profit Margins and FCF went in the wrong direction in 2021. FCF in particular, I'd like to see movement towards being consistently FCF positive.
- ARR and Enterprise ARR growth at >40% and >65%.
- Account growth >20%
- ARPA > 25%
- Would be awesome if management started providing NRR on a quarterly basis instead of just annually.
All in all, I'm concerned. I think the odds of having sold my shares and incurred a substantial loss are much higher than of BIGC bouncing back to a market-beating position.
Current position:
Total cost basis: 4th highest in my portfolio (ugh)
Time since first buy: 1.66 years
Number of purchases since: 4
Annualized return: (62.6%)
Annualized $SPY return: 10.0%
Annualized $QQQ return: 3.9%
Match Group, Inc. ($MTCH) - Reporting Tuesday (5/3) afternoon
I'm hoping for a swipe right earnings report (terrible dad joke).
Here's what I'm looking for this afternoon.
- Keep growing revenue at >20%. I like my companies non-401k companies growing >20% or with that part of their public lives clearly in front of them. Match grew last year by 25%. More of that, please.
- GPM has decreased each of the last 3 years. Turn back towards improving margins.
- Management recently changed some of the KPIs they report. They now provide Payers and Revenue Per Payer (RPP). We only have data from Q2, Q3, and Q4 for 2020 and 2021. I expect we'll get Q1 2021 along with Q1 2022. Regardless, Q2-Q4 in 2021 was only growth of 15% in Payers and 8.1% in RPP. That isn't good enough for me. Those numbers need to show improvement, especially since they are the numbers management is choosing to report now.
I've begun to lose my interest in following Match. If that trend continues for me, it'll either need to become a Core Holding, a company that I don't feel I need to follow closely (not likely) or a sell candidate. Sometimes you don't need a thesis to break to sell a stock. Sometimes, you just lose interest. Time is valuable and can be better spent elsewhere.
Current position:
Total cost basis: 59th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 3.17 years
Number of purchases since: 3
Annualized return: 7.9%
Annualized $SPY return: 11.6%
Annualized $QQQ return: 18.1%
Airbnb, Inc. ($ABNB) - Reporting Tuesday (5/3) afternoon
This is one of my highest conviction positions. It terms of total cost basis, it's 6th highest and I'm actively looking to get it in the top 3. It's also close to becoming Core Holding for me, which basically means I would stop reading the press releases, 10-Qs/Ks, etc. and follow it less closely. I just want to make sure the thesis remains on sound footing for a year or so after the pandemic finally ends.
Here's what I'm looking for this afternoon:
- Exceed Q1 guidance of $1.445B at the midpoint.
- GPM >73%
- Keep minting FCF
- Growth of Nights & Experiences Booked (N&EB) >10%
- Gross Booking Value (GBV) growth >15%
- GBV/N&EB rate >$167
I just want to see Airbnb continue its current trajectory, which means keep firing on all cylinders.
Current position:
Total cost basis: 6th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.32 years
Number of purchases since: 3
Annualized return: 0.5%
Annualized $SPY return: 4.3%
Annualized $QQQ return: (4.5%)
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