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Buying the dip blindly can sometimes equate to catching a falling knife - what makes the difference is thoroughly researching the companies that form the largest drops and understanding their fundamentals
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Conor Mac's avatar
$325.7m follower assets
Are Tinder and Bumble Straying too far from Core Value Prop?
A transcript snippet from a former Senior PM at Tinder had the following to say about Tinder and Bumble's $BMBL focus on "building things that aren't actually dating experiences." He argues that this has allowed Hinge, owned by $MTCH, to gain market share for sticking to the core value proposition, of being a dating app.

"I think that actually resonated with a lot of users where they're like, "Oh, I don't care about these weird social experiences, you shoot more in the Tinder and Bumble. I want the best dating app."
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Cannibalizing your own market share sounds better than losing it :)
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Steve Matt's avatar
$10.2m follower assets
Bumble ($BMBL) or Match ($MTCH)
Someone is giving you $1,000 but you can only use it to buy shares of Bumble or Match and you can't sell those shares for 10 years. Have to pick one as a long-term hold. Curious what the sentiment is.

Very brief overview of each:
  • Match is the current industry leader. Profitable and plenty of free cash flow and a track record that shows they should be able to maintain it. Growing the top line at ~19% the past 3 years, but paying user growth is decelerating. Has a huge suite of dating apps in its portfolio but Tinder is the big dog.
  • Bumble has 1/4 the revenue at 1/4 the market cap of Match. Just turned profitable in Q1 although there's no track record they can maintain it. FCF positive every year since 2019 with FCF/S increasing the past 2 years. Gross margins currently better than Match. Badoo is a drag on them but the Bumble app is growing paid users well and recently expanded in Europe with Fruitz acqusition.
Bumble ($BMBL) or Match ($MTCH)?
27%Bumble
72%Match
18 VotesPoll ended on: 05/27/22
U.S. Dollar
A strengthening dollar has been a pain in the neck for global firms -- on top of all of the other pains in the necks they've had to deal with over the last several months.

Companies with hefty non-dollar-denominated businesses were hit by the soaring dollar making exchanges from foreign currency to greenbacks ultimately worth less on an apples to apples basis. For a company like $MTCH specifically, this was set to shave 5% off of their Q2 revenue growth rates while just a few months ago, the impact was neutral. It's a big deal.

The recently weakening dollar would be extremely welcomed news from Match and countless other companies, and it's beginning to (long way to go) fortunately cool off. We'll take all of the macro tailwinds we can get this year.
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Stanley's avatar
$9.2m follower assets
Taco Tuesday - 5/10/22
9 stock positions increased/added.

Additional investments into my Stash Portfolio (6)

$ATVI - $94.22 consensus price target. My wife is holding this in her portfolio, new position for me with $MSFT buyout in the works an arbitrage play.

$CROX - $110.22 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys. Not a 'core' position so will flip for a profit when the market recovers.

$DOUG - $10.00 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys. Not a 'core' position so will flip for a profit when the market recovers.

$EBAY - $60.41 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys. Increasing a 'core' position.

$MTCH - $125.00 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys. Not a 'core' position so will flip for a profit when the market recovers.

$NKE - $164.91 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys. Increasing a 'core' position.

Additional investments into my M1 Finance "Fat Cat Investing" portfolio (3)


The 'Fat Cat Investing' portfolio is down 1.66% overall today and 4.81% since inception - a part of my ongoing "Real Estate Rumble".
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Steve Matt's avatar
$10.2m follower assets
$BIGC $MTCH $ABNB Earnings: What I'm Looking For
BigCommerce Holdings, Inc. ($BIGC) - Reporting Monday (5/2) afternoon
This company has not treated me well. I first began buying at ~$111, not too far from their all-time high. It has been a slow, steady march downwards. I added at $102, $94, $69, and $58. I'm currently down ~78%. Woof. BigCommerce is currently on my Sell WatchlistI need to see some marked improvement in expenses, FCF, and accelerating growth.

Here's what I'll be looking for:

  • Management guided for $277.6MM FY revenue at the midpoint and $63.5MM in Q1. That FY revenue growth isn't good enough for me. It would be a deceleration of growth (60% in 2019, 36% in 2020, 44% un 2021) to 26%. I want to see a hefty Q1 revenue beat. Show me management sandbagged guidance, which I'm ok with.
  • Net Profit Margins and FCF went in the wrong direction in 2021. FCF in particular, I'd like to see movement towards being consistently FCF positive.
  • ARR and Enterprise ARR growth at >40% and >65%.
  • Account growth >20%
  • ARPA > 25%
  • Would be awesome if management started providing NRR on a quarterly basis instead of just annually.

All in all, I'm concerned. I think the odds of having sold my shares and incurred a substantial loss are much higher than of BIGC bouncing back to a market-beating position.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 4th highest in my portfolio (ugh)
Time since first buy: 1.66 years
Number of purchases since: 4
Annualized return: (62.6%)
Annualized $SPY return: 10.0%
Annualized $QQQ return: 3.9%

Match Group, Inc. ($MTCH) - Reporting Tuesday (5/3) afternoon
I'm hoping for a swipe right earnings report (terrible dad joke).

Here's what I'm looking for this afternoon.

  • Keep growing revenue at >20%. I like my companies non-401k companies growing >20% or with that part of their public lives clearly in front of them. Match grew last year by 25%. More of that, please.
  • GPM has decreased each of the last 3 years. Turn back towards improving margins.
  • Management recently changed some of the KPIs they report. They now provide Payers and Revenue Per Payer (RPP). We only have data from Q2, Q3, and Q4 for 2020 and 2021. I expect we'll get Q1 2021 along with Q1 2022. Regardless, Q2-Q4 in 2021 was only growth of 15% in Payers and 8.1% in RPP. That isn't good enough for me. Those numbers need to show improvement, especially since they are the numbers management is choosing to report now.

I've begun to lose my interest in following Match. If that trend continues for me, it'll either need to become a Core Holding, a company that I don't feel I need to follow closely (not likely) or a sell candidate. Sometimes you don't need a thesis to break to sell a stock. Sometimes, you just lose interest. Time is valuable and can be better spent elsewhere.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 59th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 3.17 years
Number of purchases since: 3
Annualized return: 7.9%
Annualized $SPY return: 11.6%
Annualized $QQQ return: 18.1%

Airbnb, Inc. ($ABNB) - Reporting Tuesday (5/3) afternoon
This is one of my highest conviction positions. It terms of total cost basis, it's 6th highest and I'm actively looking to get it in the top 3. It's also close to becoming Core Holding for me, which basically means I would stop reading the press releases, 10-Qs/Ks, etc. and follow it less closely. I just want to make sure the thesis remains on sound footing for a year or so after the pandemic finally ends.

Here's what I'm looking for this afternoon:

  • Exceed Q1 guidance of $1.445B at the midpoint.
  • GPM >73%
  • Keep minting FCF
  • Growth of Nights & Experiences Booked (N&EB) >10%
  • Gross Booking Value (GBV) growth >15%
  • GBV/N&EB rate >$167

I just want to see Airbnb continue its current trajectory, which means keep firing on all cylinders.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 6th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.32 years
Number of purchases since: 3
Annualized return: 0.5%
Annualized $SPY return: 4.3%
Annualized $QQQ return: (4.5%)
BIGC put a whooping on me too. I’ll probably jump in if they surprise to the upside though.
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Steve Matt's avatar
$10.2m follower assets
The Coming Week in Earnings
Woooo boy, this week will be fun for my portfolio.

Monday (5/2)
  • $BIGC^ (On my Sell Watchlist)

Tuesday (5/3)

Wednesday (5/4)

Thursday

Friday

Anything with a ^ indicates I read the 8-K and 10-Q/10-K and track their financials along with KPIs on a spreadsheet I have.

So basically, this will be me next week...
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