ETSY Long Term Forecast - 2031
Conservative projections for 10 years point to an IRR of 20%
Estimated price in 2031 is expected to be $320.00, a cash on cash return of 3.25x.
Points to Note
- Debt to EBITDA is greater than 3 and is growing consistently.
- There are no dividends or share buybacks authorized.
- Revenue is growing, EBITDA is growing.
Key Metrics
✅ Revenue Growth
✅ EBITDA Growth
❌ Low Debt
✅ FCFE Growth
❌ Dividends
✅ Well Priced
✅ Low Market Multiple
✅ Increasing Free Cash Flows to Equity
❌ Share Buybacks
Detailed Forecast can be seen at https://www.harikrishnan.info/Etsy-e16c2135543743d5a1155eb62a3db7fd
I just personally struggle investing in a company I have never used. They’ve never beat Amazon or E Bay when I was trying making a purchase, so I tend to doubt their long term strength as an investment, as ignorant and simple minded as that may be. Most sellers were in India and would only accept PayPal; just not for me, extra layers of difficulty won’t help onboard new users. I’ll take $EBAY at current valuations or $AMZN as the gorilla in the space, or a couple Chinese E-commerce companies. I tend to let my personal opinion of the quality of the product or service carry a lot of weight with an investment. A positive customer experience isn’t always a buy, but at the same time, a negative customer experience is usually a cause to pass for me.