The real question is: given our current financial and economic world, what is the optimal portfolio construction for 40+ year buy and hold? If the Dragon isn’t the best please share why and what’s better.

Thanks 🤝

I've been actively managing my portfolio for almost three years. Currently, I'm sitting 100% in cash –– and have been all year.

But I'm considering dipping my toes in with small swing trade experiments.

Here's my latest idea:

I'm considering buying/selling a stock all the way down its supply chain.

For ex:

If I short $APPL in the event of a recession, I will also short the consumer discretionary sector, the distributors, the producers, and the raw materials that make Apple products (probably via ETFs but maybe the individual companies...unsure).

Is this a thing that others already do? Or is this a dumb idea? I'm currently studying the supply chain and this investing idea popped into my head.

Let me know your thoughts. Thx,

A split Congress means nothing will get passed for two years. Nothing getting done means stability for the markets. Anybody else long if Republicans split/take Congress?

PPI measures whole sale inflation, whereas CPI measures inflation of consumer goods and services. So with PPI going down, that means producers are paying less for their goods. In turn, it means the consumer pays less for goods and services, which will make CPI drop. PPI is a leading indicator to CPI.

I know there are a few intricacies of what each index specifically measure. But from a high level, is the above correct or am I missing something? Thx!

I'm currently listening to the All In Podcast, and Chamath Palihapitiya said the following:

"You buy volatility and short stocks when the VIX is below 20. When the VIX is in the 30s, you short volatility and buy stocks."

Let me know if I'm understanding this correctly – during times of low volatility, you should short stocks in preparation for volatility to enter back into the market. Volatility rising is a signal that money is moving around the market. So during times of high volatility, you should buy back in because we have likely reached that local bottom.

If I'm understanding correctly, here's the play I'm considering. Today, $TSLA is down ~6%. My initial instinct was to buy at the end of today's session for what I assume will be a green day on Monday. But the VIX is currently sitting at 21. So I should technically short TSLA in preparation for volatility returning to the market, based on the above logic.

Am I properly understanding this? And is this something you agree with? Thanks for the help.