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@prinzmyschkin
Alan
9 following15 followers
Coupang
Coupang is trading at not much more than one times sales, growing revenue at 20% a year, newly profitable, doing better than the domestic competition, expanding into Taiwan with early success (Taiwan has roughly half the population of Korea). I’m quite tempted, even tempted to sell Apple and/or Google to fund it.

Would it be a good trade? Does anybody like Coupang?

Amazon very undervalued?
I currently don’t hold Amazon stock but it suddenly struck me that it is really undervalued. Revenue over $500 billion p were year is enormous. Compound that at 10-12% a year (seems reasonable to me with advertising and AWS growing faster than that) and assume that at some point it expands net margins to at least 10%, and then also returns cash to shareholders, and you get a very healthy return.

Also, as an aside, it doesn’t have a cult following like Tesla but with its automation of warehousing it seems a better bet on robotics than the Teslabot.

Dividend accounts
Does anybody notice that on Twitter Dividend Investor accounts are constantly being pushed? However many I block they keep coming!

I think last year was somewhat similar with tech. It’s like Twitter pushes the accounts of whatever stocks are doing the worst that year.

BYD stock
BYD seems quite undervalued. Tesla is the closest comparison at a PE of 70, whereas BYD has a PE of 27. Meanwhile BYD is growing its profits and revenue faster from a smaller base (one eighth of the market cap). Both have ‘other bets’ that may pay off in solar energy etc.

BYD is a Chinese stock and I do think that deserves a discount. However, it is in a ‘hard tech’ company and therefore completely in line with government objectives. And Tesla itself has at least some China risk.

Thoughts? I’m pretty tempted by BYD at this price. As an aside, I live in Hong Kong where you see loads of Teslas but I have started to spot BYDs here and there recently.

@djstocks10/03/2023
BYD has better governance than tesla as well and a stronger position on China’s TAM than Tesla
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Approach to Healthcare stocks
I’m curious to hear about people’s experience/advise with healthcare stocks. I’m fairly convinced that healthcare overall has secular tailwinds but it is obviously quite technical for somebody without specialised knowledge. So far I’ve favoured companies that are profitable but investing for growth (I avoid dividend payers). At the moment I have about an 8% position in Regeneron and recent smaller positions in Genmab and Shockwave Medical.

Some health care stocks will always do well. But I find it hard to pick out which ones. Especially with pre-clinical. A coin flip study or FDA devision can make or break a company. Then the post clinical stops have patent cliffs.
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Advanced Drainage Systems
Anybody with a view on this company? It seems clearly undervalued- PE under 15, selling in a growth market, good balance sheet …

Wondering if I am missing something?

Not one I'm familiar with but I took a quick look at their most recent investor deck:

$WMS seems to be in a down cycle with soft demand for residential and macroeconomic uncertainty beginning to impact non-residential. On the other hand, FCF from operations was up more than 3x YoY in FY22! I am interested in what others have to say. Let us know if you leg into a position!
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Question about Spotify Backstage
I see that Spotify are monetising 5 developer portals from their open ‘backstage’ platform.

I don’t really know anything about developer portals - is there anybody who does and could speak to whether this has any potential to turn into a meaningful part of Spotify’s business?

Thoughts on Moderna?
The valuation seems reasonable and the upside potentially huge, but without any special knowledge on how likely they are to be able to apply mRNA to other diseases, I hesitate to invest.

Bailie Gifford have a big position but, basically, I don’t trust that they really understand the science behind mRNA.

Does anybody have any insights?

Darden Restaurants
Does anybody have any knowledge about Darden?

It seems to be reasonably good value, with a nice dividend yield. Its broad argument that its scale makes it the most efficient operator in its segment seems convincing to me but I don’t know a lot about restaurant stocks.

I’m also thinking that if there is a recession, service industry stocks will be the last to tank and the last to recover, which gives me pause.

Cash App Pay
It’s still early but I feel like cash app pay could potentially be a very important development. I’m sure it would be generating a lot of excitement if we were in a bull market. The potential is there to create a fourth payment network alongside Mastercard, Visa and AmEx. And the recent link up with Adyen expands the seller network a lot.

It might never reach scale but just struck me how little attention it is getting, whereas I could imagine double digit moves in the stock in a different macro environment.

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