Twilio Inc.

I mainly know $TWLO from a developers perspective and I know basically everyone uses them. Other than that I havent dived to deep into finances, etc. but at $69 is it worth starting a position?! Seems way too cheap

I can't buy TWLO. It's on my watchlist and I want to be an investor but they dilute the fudge out of shareholders.

Also, their revenue has been growing fast each year but headcount has somehow grown faster.

2017: Revenue up 44%, headcount up 36%
2018: Revenue up 63%, headcount up 45%
2019: Revenue up 75%, headcount up 102(!)%
2020: Revenue up 55%, headcount up 59%
2021: Revenue up 61%, headcount up 70%

So that's 3 consecutive years of headcount increasing faster than revenue and revenue per employee is now back to pre-2016 levels.

2016: $379,911 per employee
2017: $400,622
2018: $451,435
2019: $390,523
2020: $380,595
2021: $361,235

That's uninvestable in book. Dilution must slow and hiring must either start hitting the topline more or just slow the hiring. Until those two things change and FCF stops getting more negative, I just can't buy. I'm happy to wait for those things to change and buy at $100 or $120 or $150 instead of buying at $60 or $70 or $80 and watching them never change as my investment stagnates.

Steve Matt

$TWLO worth starting a position?

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