On 4/20, we published our M&A arbitrage thoughts for the $ATVI / $MSFT deal. At the time of the post, there was a 46% chance of the deal going through.

Since then, the probability has dropped to 23%.

We modeled a 100% options structure. Take a look at the current returns

Our trade structure bought both 3/17/22 call & put options on $ATVI while also selling call options

1 L Call

1 L Put

4 S Calls

Based on the current options prices, the trades' return stands at 20.8%

Take a look at our original thoughts and structure 👇🏼👇🏼