Straight-Up: Tesla Q3 volumes were below expectations. While FY 2023 production is still targeted at 1.8mn, I wonder if Elon will repeat his aspiration for 2mn on Oct 18, when Tesla hosts its Q3 earnings call. The descriptor “around 1.8 million” in yesterday’s announcement is causing some concern that Tesla may even fall short of the baseline volume guided.

More importantly, what will FY 2024 look like? On the one hand, Cybertruck will be a meaningful addition, with pre-orders already exceeding 2mn; conversely, much will also depend on the demand environment next year.

Read more below, plus research extracts from Goldman, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley:

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