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$AMD Northland Capital Upgrades to Outperform
“We are upgrading AMD to OP. We are also reducing estimates to account for a global recession by cutting $2.8B out of our CY23 forecast. We trimmed our estimates for PC CPUs, GPUs, XLNX, and gaming consoles. We left our server revenue unchanged, but have growth decelerating to 55% y/y in CY23 down from 78% in CY22. We trim our PT to $95 and raise our rating to OP. We believe that the world is heading into a global recession, and in general, semiconductor companies' estimates are too high. We scrubbed our AMD numbers and lower our CY23 estimates to comprehend a global economic slowdown that will likely impact PC CPUs, GPUs, game consoles, and XLNX. AMD in servers CPUs is at the top of the stack next year we believe AMD will see little impact on this business in CY23. We estimate that AMD's PC CPU revenue will decline 6% next year, and GPU revenue will decline 7%. Combined we are modeling CPU and GPU revenue to decline by $675M Y/Y. We are modeling XLNX revenue to decline 6% on an apples-to-apples comparison, but AMD acquired XLNX in the middle of Q1 and we estimate AMD's XLINX revenue will increase by $250M in 2023. We estimate game console revenue in CY23 will be up 8% or $400M, but we reduce our CY23 estimate by $740M. We estimate enterprise revenue will grow 55% or by $3.1B. We believe these estimates are a low bar for the Company."

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