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David McDonough

NVDA $280 Call, 09/15/23 Exp

Bought NVDA $280 Calls

NVDA $300 Call, 09/15/23 Exp

Traded NVDA $300 Calls

Microsoft Corporation

Probably my largest/best earnings trade ever.... just wish I went bigger/bought calls $MSFT

![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/36e0d55af1b16502e64ae1a526b7c247f61ffd7a3669ec45a69e61f66460917d-2249x1468.png)

We're so back...

Bought 1407% more MSFT

Bought 720% more MSFT

Citigroup Inc

Charles Schwab Corp.

My first/best trade ever was buying $C in 2009 in the middle of the GFC at close to $1 per share.

I was super naive back then then but felt like it was a strong bank on fundamentals and I knew the gov't would never let it fail. **Today is very much NOT the GFC!** but I'm seeing market behavior that feels similar and figured I'd make a similar trade, for old time's sake.

Specifically, bank issues create a very scary narrative that tends to drive an overblown selloff.  $SCHW has pretty strong numbers and 80% insured deposits so I don't think the doomsday scenario is possible. When the dust settles - if it does - there might be a nice 10-20% gain to be had. It's a small/risky call that the U.S. will protect American confidence in banking at almost all costs. (that latter part doesn't seem like a risky bet).

Related: I know our system has plenty of flaws, but when we bring to bear the full weight of the United States Government to eliminate a threat or solve a critical problem, holy hell is it impressive to witness. Interesting behind the scenes look here:

(Also fascinating that gov't can be so inefficient in so many ways... and then have these small but critical pockets of unparalleled, ruthless hyper efficiency, like the military and financial protection)

Bought $SCHW: fear seems overblown (reminds me of fear in 2009 GFC)

New position in SCHW

Apple Inc

Bought 8% more AAPL

New position in AAPL

Ethereum

Bought 25% more ETH

New position in ETH

Bitcoin

Bought 98% more BTC

AAPL $165 Call, 12/16/22 Exp

Or tell me how I’m dumb/crazy? (Obvs macro situation is a substantial headwind, I'm team soft-landing)
**TL;DR:**
- **AAPL price has followed a pretty identical seasonal pattern** **from Sept to Jan over the past 5yrs.**
- **5% selloff at first, then 20-40% rally**
- **Buying Calls with Dec/Jan exp.**

**Context:** I was wondering if/how apple’s Fall product announcements impacted stock price noticed a pretty regular pattern in AAPL stock every year from Sept to December over the past 5yrs.

Here's $AAPL's avg performance from Sept 1 to Jan 1 of the next year:

![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/91f40a23e1f715a303077c461e43e0534e5099a7107ab364250e246caaf0aef3-3309x3313.png)

**My Thesis** is that after the sept iPhone announcements, twitter /armchair
quarterbacks complain about how there’s nothing new or impressive, pre orders
are way down, this year’s iphone sales will be terrible, market was hoping for some
crazy new thing, blah blah blah…

…Then everyone goes and buys all their products anyways, spends a
zillion dollars on dongles/holiday presents, and the stock goes back up… because
it’s Apple

Like clockwork:
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/99deb5412ed83c48bcb788a5b8eb2127ad5e85dc14c51037753d069947d1398d-1284x1509.jpg)

The only year not following this pattern was 2018 when entire market corrected over the same time. I kind of think we've already done a lot of that correction, but that's clearly the biggest wildcard.

This all _intuitively_ makes sense to me but I’m sure I’m oversimplifying/missing
something. I usually don't love trading $AAPL since I feel like I have zero insights not already priced in, but 4/5 years = enough of a pattern to make me want to place a bet, let's see how it goes. Below are the charts I threw together to research this (data from Yahoo Finance put into Excel) DID I JUST DO TA?!?!

$AAPL Price 2017-2021
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/94a5cea6f56b13b5164c44b4240b608559d3b939bfa0312925d0e84cd2ea9b5f-3313x3313.png)


$AAPL Performance year vs year 2017-2021
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/e42bc41dbc9efd98da23a6e3cbd2424074a441b4ed8cd423e9eb4a4c653ae555-3313x3313.png)

$AAPL Avg performance 2017-2021
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/971bf55d40814f2b2962e68f56494ffffa7ab9821d5242dbb1c302d9b4d40d31-3309x3313.png)


The trend is more clear when you remove 2018. Yes, this is literally the definition of cherry-picking data 🤷🏼‍♂️ ...It's my party I can do what I want to.

$AAPL Performance year vs year 2017-2021 **EX-2018**
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/fc6f105020cb5ed60f159dba9906ce02ceedb359bf325e4699d57d7b2e05b86c-3313x3313.png)


$AAPL Avg performance 2017-2021 **EX-2018**
![Image upload](https://cdn.commonstock.com/e3deaae9f597629f3b5a4440228d4c012296590bc5f5ac9607b49728dfe0fb43-3313x3309.png)

Tell me why this $AAPL trade isn't free money?

Bought AAPL $165 Calls

Bought 1114% more BTC

Amazon.com Inc.

Bought <1% more AMZN

Sold all ETH

Sold 96% of BTC

ProShares Trust - ProShares UltraPro QQQ 3x Shares

New position in TQQQ

Datadog Inc - Class A

New position in DDOG

Cloudflare Inc - Class A

Bought 50% more NET

Bought 60% more AMZN