$NVDA calls up 80% in 2 weeks... do I sell/roll or let it ride? (Sept exp)

Probably my largest/best earnings trade ever.... just wish I went bigger/bought calls $MSFT

My first/best trade ever was buying $C in 2009 in the middle of the GFC at close to $1 per share.

I was super naive back then then but felt like it was a strong bank on fundamentals and I knew the gov't would never let it fail. Today is very much NOT the GFC! but I'm seeing market behavior that feels similar and figured I'd make a similar trade, for old time's sake.

Specifically, bank issues create a very scary narrative that tends to drive an overblown selloff. $SCHW has pretty strong numbers and 80% insured deposits so I don't think the doomsday scenario is possible. When the dust settles - if it does - there might be a nice 10-20% gain to be had. It's a small/risky call that the U.S. will protect American confidence in banking at almost all costs. (that latter part doesn't seem like a risky bet).

Related: I know our system has plenty of flaws, but when we bring to bear the full weight of the United States Government to eliminate a threat or solve a critical problem, holy hell is it impressive to witness. Interesting behind the scenes look here:

(Also fascinating that gov't can be so inefficient in so many ways... and then have these small but critical pockets of unparalleled, ruthless hyper efficiency, like the military and financial protection)

This is wild.

Rumors of a big national security announcement today, quick straw poll:

Huge if true! (Pray for Matt Levine)

🤯 OMFG This could save $ADBE if true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/adobe-is-said-to-near-deal-to-buy-online-design-startup-figma

UPDATE: confirmed, $20B price tag.

IMO as a Figma power user (aka fanboi), I've long said it could be one of the most valuable software companies of all time.. Don't ruin it Adobe!

Or tell me how I’m dumb/crazy? (Obvs macro situation is a substantial headwind, I'm team soft-landing)

Context: I was wondering if/how apple’s Fall product announcements impacted stock price noticed a pretty regular pattern in AAPL stock every year from Sept to December over the past 5yrs.

Here's $AAPL's avg performance from Sept 1 to Jan 1 of the next year:

My Thesis is that after the sept iPhone announcements, twitter /armchair

quarterbacks complain about how there’s nothing new or impressive, pre orders

are way down, this year’s iphone sales will be terrible, market was hoping for some

crazy new thing, blah blah blah…

…Then everyone goes and buys all their products anyways, spends a

zillion dollars on dongles/holiday presents, and the stock goes back up… because

it’s Apple

Like clockwork:

The only year not following this pattern was 2018 when entire market corrected over the same time. I kind of think we've already done a lot of that correction, but that's clearly the biggest wildcard.

This all intuitively makes sense to me but I’m sure I’m oversimplifying/missing

something. I usually don't love trading $AAPL since I feel like I have zero insights not already priced in, but 4/5 years = enough of a pattern to make me want to place a bet, let's see how it goes. Below are the charts I threw together to research this (data from Yahoo Finance put into Excel) DID I JUST DO TA?!?!

$AAPL Price 2017-2021

$AAPL Performance year vs year 2017-2021

$AAPL Avg performance 2017-2021

The trend is more clear when you remove 2018. Yes, this is literally the definition of cherry-picking data 🤷🏼‍♂️ ...It's my party I can do what I want to.

$AAPL Performance year vs year 2017-2021 EX-2018

$AAPL Avg performance 2017-2021 EX-2018

At least I assume that's what they meant by "extreme turbulence"?

6hr flight, will $ETH.X be triple digits when I land? Will Crypto still exist? Will tech stocks trigger circuit breakers? God I hope this flight has wifi.