Or tell me how I’m dumb/crazy? (Obvs macro situation is a substantial headwind, I'm team soft-landing)
- AAPL price has followed a pretty identical seasonal pattern from Sept to Jan over the past 5yrs.
- 5% selloff at first, then 20-40% rally
- Buying Calls with Dec/Jan exp.
Context: I was wondering if/how apple’s Fall product announcements impacted stock price noticed a pretty regular pattern in AAPL stock every year from Sept to December over the past 5yrs.
's avg performance from Sept 1 to Jan 1 of the next year:
My Thesis is that after the sept iPhone announcements, twitter /armchair
quarterbacks complain about how there’s nothing new or impressive, pre orders
are way down, this year’s iphone sales will be terrible, market was hoping for some
crazy new thing, blah blah blah…
…Then everyone goes and buys all their products anyways, spends a
zillion dollars on dongles/holiday presents, and the stock goes back up… because
The only year not following this pattern was 2018 when entire market corrected over the same time. I kind of think we've already done a lot of that correction, but that's clearly the biggest wildcard.
This all intuitively makes sense to me but I’m sure I’m oversimplifying/missing
something. I usually don't love trading $AAPL
since I feel like I have zero insights not already priced in, but 4/5 years = enough of a pattern to make me want to place a bet, let's see how it goes. Below are the charts I threw together to research this (data from Yahoo Finance put into Excel) DID I JUST DO TA?!?!
Performance year vs year 2017-2021
Avg performance 2017-2021
The trend is more clear when you remove 2018. Yes, this is literally the definition of cherry-picking data 🤷🏼♂️ ...It's my party I can do what I want to.
Performance year vs year 2017-2021 EX-2018
Avg performance 2017-2021 EX-2018