Trending Assets
Top investors this month
Trending Assets
Top investors this month
David McDonough
$500.9M follower assets
Founded Commonstock to improve the world's financial health
1,051 following4,975 followers
David McDonough's avatar
David McDonough
@mcdMay 18
When BTFD goes right:
$NVDA calls up 80% in 2 weeks... do I sell/roll or let it ride? (Sept exp)
post media

I think I'd probably sell and be happy with my 80% return. September is still a long way off. How does this outcome compare to the return profile you had in mind?
David McDonough's avatar
David McDonough
Bought $SCHW: fear seems overblown (reminds me of fear in 2009 GFC)
My first/best trade ever was buying $C in 2009 in the middle of the GFC at close to $1 per share.

I was super naive back then then but felt like it was a strong bank on fundamentals and I knew the gov't would never let it fail. Today is very much NOT the GFC! but I'm seeing market behavior that feels similar and figured I'd make a similar trade, for old time's sake.

Specifically, bank issues create a very scary narrative that tends to drive an overblown selloff. $SCHW has pretty strong numbers and 80% insured deposits so I don't think the doomsday scenario is possible. When the dust settles - if it does - there might be a nice 10-20% gain to be had. It's a small/risky call that the U.S. will protect American confidence in banking at almost all costs. (that latter part doesn't seem like a risky bet).

Related: I know our system has plenty of flaws, but when we bring to bear the full weight of the United States Government to eliminate a threat or solve a critical problem, holy hell is it impressive to witness. Interesting behind the scenes look here:

(Also fascinating that gov't can be so inefficient in so many ways... and then have these small but critical pockets of unparalleled, ruthless hyper efficiency, like the military and financial protection)

Just picked up some myself, I smell a V recovery. Set a tight stop loss though.
David McDonough's avatar
David McDonough
Rumors of a big national security announcement today, quick straw poll:
Will the US ban TikTok?
34%Obvs yes, huge natsec threat
65%No way, ppl are too addicted

43 VotesPoll ended on: 10/25/2022

David McDonough's avatar
David McDonough

UPDATE: confirmed, $20B price tag.

IMO as a Figma power user (aka fanboi), I've long said it could be one of the most valuable software companies of all time.. Don't ruin it Adobe!
Adobe Near Deal for Online Design Startup Figma, Sources Say
Adobe Inc. is nearing a deal to acquire Figma, a startup that makes online design collaboration tools, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Adobe Near Deal for Online Design Startup Figma, Sources Say

David McDonough's avatar
David McDonough
Bought AAPL $165 Calls
12/16/2022 Exp, Opening
1 Upvote
Tell me why this $AAPL trade isn't free money?
Or tell me how I’m dumb/crazy? (Obvs macro situation is a substantial headwind, I'm team soft-landing)
  • AAPL price has followed a pretty identical seasonal pattern from Sept to Jan over the past 5yrs.
  • 5% selloff at first, then 20-40% rally
  • Buying Calls with Dec/Jan exp.

Context: I was wondering if/how apple’s Fall product announcements impacted stock price noticed a pretty regular pattern in AAPL stock every year from Sept to December over the past 5yrs.

Here's $AAPL's avg performance from Sept 1 to Jan 1 of the next year:

My Thesis is that after the sept iPhone announcements, twitter /armchair
quarterbacks complain about how there’s nothing new or impressive, pre orders
are way down, this year’s iphone sales will be terrible, market was hoping for some
crazy new thing, blah blah blah…

…Then everyone goes and buys all their products anyways, spends a
zillion dollars on dongles/holiday presents, and the stock goes back up… because
it’s Apple

Like clockwork:

The only year not following this pattern was 2018 when entire market corrected over the same time. I kind of think we've already done a lot of that correction, but that's clearly the biggest wildcard.

This all intuitively makes sense to me but I’m sure I’m oversimplifying/missing
something. I usually don't love trading $AAPL since I feel like I have zero insights not already priced in, but 4/5 years = enough of a pattern to make me want to place a bet, let's see how it goes. Below are the charts I threw together to research this (data from Yahoo Finance put into Excel) DID I JUST DO TA?!?!

$AAPL Price 2017-2021

$AAPL Performance year vs year 2017-2021

$AAPL Avg performance 2017-2021

The trend is more clear when you remove 2018. Yes, this is literally the definition of cherry-picking data 🤷🏼‍♂️ ...It's my party I can do what I want to.

$AAPL Performance year vs year 2017-2021 EX-2018

$AAPL Avg performance 2017-2021 EX-2018
post mediapost mediapost mediapost media

@mcd I think it’s a sound strategy. I’d pay up for more time and go out to an expiration in spring 2023 timeframe just because the macro environment is so volitile. You can always sell before expiration and time has value too!
David McDonough's avatar
David McDonough
Taking off for @commonstock team offsite in LA... pilots just gave their trading tips on the PA
At least I assume that's what they meant by "extreme turbulence"?

6hr flight, will $ETH.X be triple digits when I land? Will Crypto still exist? Will tech stocks trigger circuit breakers? God I hope this flight has wifi.
post media

Portfolio statistics
Something went wrong while loading your statistics.
Please try again later.
Already have an account?