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@blacksmokemonster
Michael
Founder and top trading admin for Alpha Trading Group. Focus on long-term growth investments and short-term alpha generating trading strategies.
7 following28 followers
Trade Idea
$TSLA Bullish Call Debit Spread (filled 2.50)
bto 12/18 TSLA 690 Call (filled 27.19)
sto 12/18 TSLA 700 Call (filled 24.69)

  • I think there's a good chance this Tesla rally will peak the day before S&P 500 inclusion.

  • Reward over Risk here is 3:1

  • Max loss = $250 per spread if Tesla is below 690 by 12/18 close

  • Max Reward = $750 per spread is Tesla is above 700 by 12/18 close
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12/8 Earnings Prophet Ideas
Long $PLAY atm Put
Expected Earnings: 12/10 After Hours
Type: Pre-Earnings
Exit: 12/10
PA ≈ 1%
Why? Over the last 12 quarters, during the two days prior to earnings, Dave & Buster's Entertainment has seen a negative move 58% of the time with an average return of -3.6%. The atm Put provides great exposure to this as well as the likely run-up in IV.

Long $PLAB Stock
Expected Earnings: Tomorrow Pre-Market
Type: Thru-Earnings
Exit: Tomorrow
PA ≈ 8%
Why? Over the last 12 quarters, Photronics has seen a positive earnings opening gap 67% of the time with an average return of +4.6%. $PLAB currently has a 57% strength technical buy signal and a 60% strength increasing bullishness options flow signal. $PLAB also trades currently at an19% discount to its average street price target. According to Estimize, Wall Street EPS and Revenue estimates are currently understated by 20% and 3% respectively.

12/7 Earnings Prophet Idea
Long $AZO Stock
Expected Earnings: Tomorrow Pre-Market
Type: Thru-Earnings
Exit: Tomorrow (On Open)
PA ≈ 21%
Why? Over the last 12 quarters, $AZO has seen a positive earnings opening gap 75% of the time, with an average return of +2.3%. $AZO currently has a 46% strength technical buy signal. $AZO also trades currently at an 18% discount to its average street price target. According to Estimize, Wall Street EPS and Revenue estimates are currently understated by 15% and 7% respectively.

Love the use of estimize to gauge general sentiment. Have you found that strategy to be effective?
+ 1 comment
12/3 Earnings Prophet Ideas
Short $DG atm Put Spread
Released Earnings: 12/3 Pre-Market
Type: Post-Earnings
Exit: 12/8
PA ≈ 2%
Why? Over the last 11 quarters, during the 3 days to earnings, $DG has seen a positive move 73% of the time with an average return of 1.1%. The short atm put spread provides great exposure to this as it has worked 80% of time (excluding the March report during the Covid-19 crash), with an average return of +14%.

Long $PLAB atm Call
Expected Earnings: 12/9 Pre-Market
Type: Pre-Earnings
Exit: 12/8
PA ≈ 1%
Why? Over the last 12 quarters, during the week prior to earnings, $PLAB has seen a positive move 83% of the time with an average return of +2.3%. The atm Call provides great exposure to this as well as likely run-up in IV.

Long $KIRK Stock
Released Earnings: 12/3 Post-Market
Type: Post-Earnings
Exit: 12/17
PA ≈ 10%
Stop Loss = 5%
Why? Over the last 11 quarters, during the two weeks following to earnings, $KIRK has seen a positive move 73% of the time with an average return of +10.1%. $KIRK just released a very strong earnings report, with the stock trading as high as +25% today and has a 54% strength technical buy signal as well as 23% strength bullish options flow signal.

Long $ZUMZ Stock
Expected Earnings: Today After Hours
Type: Thru-Earnings
Exit: Tomorrow
PA ≈ 8%
Why? Over the last 12 quarters, $ZUMZ has seen a positive earnings opening gap 67% of the time (100% of the time for the last 6 quarters) with an average return of +7.8%. $ZUMZ currently has a 57% strength technical buy signal and a 40% strength increasing bullishness options flow signal. $ZUMZ also trades currently at an 8% discount to its average street price target. According to Estimize, Wall Street EPS and Revenue estimates are currently understated by 13% and 4% respectively.

all option expirations are the nearest expiry date following the recommended exit date

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