Even when a stock I own has fallen precipitously, my ownership of the underlying company doesn't need to change. The market’s assessment of the company’s prospects changed but it can change just as dramatically the next day, or week or year.

It is hard enough to predict a company’s future prospects; it is hopeless for me as a retail investor, to try to predict how the market will assess the company in the near-future. I’ve learned to not bother trying.

This morning the most bought stock on Commonstock was Sketchers. Currently it it dropped a couple of places to #5 most bought by net dollar value.

Sometimes it's easy to forget that this is real money— not just mentions, so it's a better indicator of what retail investors are actually doing with their money.

What's super powerful is to cross-reference what retail investors are doing with institutions. MapSignals (@mapsignals) is a Commonstock user who tracks what stocks 'big money' is buying, and you can see that institutions have been buying Sketchers for the last six months:

Sketchers is a $8.2B market cap stock and is in the Russell 1,000. @mapsignals just posted a memo about how there is currently a rotation going on into small cap.

@ericthom and @equisights have also written about Sketchers on Commonstock in the past.

$SKX is up +27% year to date:

Would not be surprised to see 353 or 353.53 be high of day

Steve Cohen had it all.

After founding SAC Capital in 1985, the hedge fund only experienced 3 losing months in its first 7 years.

That means in 84 months, returns were only negative for 3 months, demonstrating a monthly success rate of 96.42%.

The rumor on Wall Street was that Cohen paid sky-high commissions and fees to brokers and other financial firms so that he could receive the first notice on actionable information, such as stock upgrades/downgrades and trading flow.

According to former SAC traders, other strategies that Cohen used included the “reverse desk” and “take the Street” tactics.

Reverse desk involves purchasing a relatively small amount of stock and then subsequently selling it off through various brokers.

“When word gets out that SAC is selling, the Street goes nuts and also starts unloading big blocks,” said a former SAC trader. These big blocks would then cause a plunge in price, which opens up an opportunity to buy at a lower price.

In take the Street, SAC would buy large blocks of a stock through several brokers at the same time in an attempt to empty their inventory.

Some of these brokers would then have to buy back the shares on the open market to refill their inventory, thus lifting up the price.

In 1992, SAC became the first ever hedge fund to manage more than $1 billion. In 1999, it became the first hedge fund to manage over $10 billion, and in 2006, the first fund to manage over $20 billion.

Throughout this stretch, SAC was often responsible for as much as 3% of all daily trading volume on the NYSE.

Then, the SEC came knocking.

Read the complete story here: https://hedgevision.substack.com/p/the-insider-trading-investigation

I just started a position in $VEEV. I’ve further looked into the future prospects and understood some of my calculations were wrong. I believe $VEEV is amongst the most diverse and best positioned to capture the enormous growth in this space for years to come.

However nowhere close to dirt cheap, I can justify buying at this price and lower.

Lavanya Chandrashekar $DEO mindset ✅

“We run this company for the long term, like true owners. A true testament of this is the steady increase in investment that we have made in maturing stock, which currently sits at a little over 5 billion.”

Does anyone really think Peacock survives?

It’s boom-time. A huge wave of money is plowing into equities.

There’s a mega rotation into small-cap stocks.

Data is beautiful. It uncovers the biggest trends. More importantly, it spotlights NEW emerging trends, just as they begin. As an investor, that’s the golden opportunity.

Staying ahead of the crowd is the edge you need to succeed in trading.

Today, we’ll unpack the money flows reshaping the market. Believe it or not, we’re witnessing the 2nd largest risk-on tape all year.

You just need a map to see it.

Finally, I’ll zero-in on the best sector for near-term upside. Get your rally hats on folks!

If you sensed that I’m constructive on stocks, it’s for a simple reason. Equities are getting bought in a monster way.

Our Big Money Index (BMI) is the market x-ray. Beginning in June, it’s started a new uptrend. I’ve overlaid the BMI with the Russell 2000 ETF ($IWM):

I’ve circled the quickly changing data that began last Thursday. Out of nowhere, a hungry appetite for stocks appeared. This suggested to me that a bullish trend change was underway:

On Thursday selling slowed just enough to set the BMI in motion higher. But there’s more.

Diving deeper, the real picture illuminates. Our proprietary algos spotted something we haven’t seen in months: a mega rotation into small-cap stocks.

Get this. There were 488 stocks bought between Friday and Wednesday of this week. 92% of those inflows were in market caps below $50B:

Ladies in gentlemen, that’s an incredible wave of money rushing into an unloved category. That spark of life ignited a beautiful rotation out of mega-cap growth and into small caps.

The past 4 trading days saw the Russell 2000 ETF ($IWM) outperform the NASDAQ 100 ETF ($QQQ) by an eye-popping 4.79%!

This move came right on the heels of last week’s message: Go long Materials Stocks. Since that pre-market post, the Materials Sector ETF ($XLB) is up 5.17%. That’s the power MAPsignals!

But what about now? Which area should investors focus on in the coming weeks? Some of the best small-cap fishing is in the Discretionary space ($XLY).

Not only has it been the 2nd best ranking group all year in data, it’s one of the main beneficiaries of the mega rotation into small-cap stocks.

The last 2 days saw dozens of high-quality names bought:

Which now brings me to the all-important message. Certain companies in the discretionary space are in monster bullish uptrends. This is where MAPsignals shines.

Each morning our portal updates with the top 20 ranked stocks by major sector groups. Below is a snapshot of this morning’s Retail/Consumer list. This is the A-team of stocks.

I’ve blurred out the tickers and bracketed the performance of these names. Many are in the middle of healthy uptrends, with double-digit returns:

My tune hasn’t changed this year: Keep betting on high-quality stocks.

The latest surge in small-cap stocks only reinforces this theme. There is a ton of opportunity out there – Follow the Big Money, baby!

Let’s wrap up.

Here’s the bottom line: Breadth is expanding in a big way. We’re noting some of the largest inflows all year. The mega rotation into small-cap stocks is set in motion.

A great way to participate in further upside is via discretionary stocks. But be choosy. Focus on the best stocks under accumulation.

Let our process help!

2023 is shaping up as one of the best stock picking environments in years. I’ll leave you with 4 simple words: Follow the Big Money.

Become a MAP Pro subscriber and gain access to all of the data presented today in our portal.

Have a great week!

Demand Levels: 347.51-357.61

Supply levels: 356.83-357.50

Watch bounces at 346.82-347.59

Market News:

U.S job openings at 10AM

FED balance sheet at 2Pm

Overall Plan:

Plan for today is to only trade QQQ do not take the trade unless you get one candle confirmation at demand zone or at bounce targets within the demand zone wait to trade until after 10 o’clock no matter what there is major news that will create volatility and you can catch the major move afterwards if price moves into demand and gives you an A+ out of combine with supporting volume take the trade went in the trade watch for the following zones for reversals 350.25, 351.26, 352.59, 356 and 357.09

Synchrony and The Container Store $TCS Extend Consumer Financing Partnership

$MULN Stock News Today Mullen Automotive DOOMED? -93.6% 2023 YTD - Day Trading Analysis click here 👇🏻

I do not like to post any 'trade ideas'. I am not a fincl advisor. I have no idea what everyone's portfolios or situations looks like. This is also not financial advice. DYOR etc.

However, I do like to point out the things that I am focusing on & ask questions that I think people need to be asking. We may come to different conclusions which is fine. However, I hope I can help by asking questions I know professionals are asking

I pull those questions together into my weekly Substack where I try to make it a more cohesive thought piece. One of the ideas from my behavioral section of the Substack, also in my Excell with Options this week, was the potential for a tradable top in the NDX

The NDX has been where all of the money has been made this year. NDX names have been generating all of the buzz. NDX has become synonymous with AI. As I heard on Jim Grant's podcast, AI has become synonymous with fire 2.0

However, the beauty of technical analysis is that it doesn't listen to podcasts or media or other investors. It observes price action & allows one to see what the supply & demand picture look like. Using past parameters we can determine when there is excess fear or greed. It is a visual form of a behavioral guide

Looking at the ichimoku chart today, you can see the strength of the rally on top. However, you can see in the bottom panel the extreme relative strength as well. I have highlighted with circles when it has gotten this extreme before

As I said in my Substack, this wouldn't be fadable until the MACD in the middle crossed lower. I have circle those areas. You can see on the right my circle from several days ago. We are crossing lower

Finally I drew arrows of the moves we have seen lower when both the RSI was extreme & the MACD is crossing over. It appears to me we are there now

This isn't just a technical call though. Back to fear & greed, the CNN Fear & Greed Index registered an extreme greed reading yesterday. Last time we saw that was 2020 I think

Then we saw the blow-off tops in many NDX single names over the past few days that are unprofitable. The leaders have also been lagging

I also suggested the FOMC may need to stay higher 4 longer. Cuts have been priced out. The 6 mth fwd Fed Funds is back to 5.25% after having dropped to 4.5%. The last time we were here the NDX fwd P/E was 19.5X vs. the current 23.5X

The rally since the October lows has been entirely driven by P/E. Multiples are a form of sentiment. Earnings or even forward earnings have not driven the rally. It was the expectation, the multiple, that has. This is more fragile than the 'fundamentals'

There are several reasons that investors should be cautious in the near term. You can see in the last year when this has happened before, we got a deeper sell off last summer but a more mild one this year. If anything I would guess this is more mild but even that could be 8%

DYOR and Stay Vigilant

#markets #investing #stocks #stayvigilant

Analyst Report: General Mills 📊

Visualizing the insanity of recent years' IPOs in Software space, thanks to BofA infographics.

En large this was caused by banks advising these companies to grow at all costs resulting in higher multiples, as mentioned by Twilio CEO tonight at Bloomberg Technology.

He talks about it here (with timestamp): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxMsEsJvTaE&t=266s

Now the focus of everyone is squeezing out FCFs/net profits but many have tough time converting and won't make it.

$DOCU reports earnings after the close today - consensus estimates

Revenue: $641 million +9% YoY

EPS: 0.53 +39% YoY

Billings is a key driver of future demand. Last quarter $DOCU guided for $620 million which would represent growth of 1% YoY. This would be the slowest billings growth since inception. Future billings guidance is what will drive the stock.

5 meme stocks to sell before they die according to InvestorPlace:

Do you agree? 🤔

I have a robinhood account* that I play around in and they just gave me more “buying power.”

I don’t remember asking for the margin, though maybe I did, or agreed to something or whatever. But it just popped up on the screen as “buying power.” If I didn’t do the math it’d be easy to think it was just my money, ie cash money, not the ‘ability to borrow‘.

I guesss it’s sort of like a credit card that keeps raising your limit… you don’t have to use it (and hopefully you don’t!). And I never mind if credit cards raise my limit.

But it’s not like a credit card, in part because of shady labeling - calling out Robinhood on the UI maybe, but the whole industry on the verbiage - borrowing money with interest should be associated with the word “limit” not “power.” 🤨

*trying to link this account to commonstock but having technical difficulties, along with other technical difficulties with the iPhone app (yes, latest version) :(