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Bear Hunter | Swing Trader | Theta Gang General | Charts | Co-Founder of Ticker Wizards | Not Financial Advice
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$COST Setup & Technicals
Let me preface this by saying I love the company long-term and I love their fundamentals, but I can't ignore the chart -

  • Possible Bear Flag/Rising Wedge forming on the daily/weekly
  • Support @ 500.44 - 496.28
  • Daily close under that targets 470.00, 432.00, 389.00
  • 389.00 is where I buy the dip with both hands
  • This is invalidated above 555.00
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$CL_F / $OIL / $USO Technical Analysis
Will be showing both the monthly and the weekly for this one.

Max Monthly Chart - http://tos.mx/r7uaVm5

Here you can see the trend break from 08' - 22' that triggered this insane rally. Hard to believe - but it was pretty clear. This is important for context on the more near-term price action.

Also note the fact that we got a close above this broadening ascending wedge in teal on a monthly timeframe. I'll elaborate more on that below.

3-Year Weekly Chart - http://tos.mx/O7DtMZy

Here you can see much more clearly how key this broadening ascending wedge (teal) was. It had three clear reactions on both sides.

Realistically, such a breakout could yield a move to 125 or so. Although, I suspect it might be difficult to trade due to the news cycles floating concerning Russia and whatnot. I personally missed this trade, although I think it's really interesting to analyze and use as an example. Furthermore, if you are not already in, it's probably not a great idea to chase here.

Keep in mind a weekly close/monthly close under 94.70 invalidates this move.
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SPY / SPX / ES_F Technical Analysis
New on this platform, not sure how you all feel about technical analysis, but I figured I'd start sharing my thoughts in case anyone was interested.

I primarily swing trade nowadays, but I used to scalp futures quite often, and I analyze the broader indexes now to provide confluence for my options/stock swing trades.

Anyway - onto my analysis of $SPY ($ES_F Futures)

3-Year Weekly Chart - http://tos.mx/RshSXGy

We have some extremely clean levels to work with, and some have even moved around. For instance, this 4250 – 4260 zone is now simply a level at 4260. We also have a very nicely defined zone sitting from 4100 – 3978, where we bottomed last week. The breakout of this downtrend is guarded by this 4489 – 4452 zone. Clearing that is the key to new highs.

Otherwise, we are still trapped in this choppy downtrend, although last weeks wick can often signal a bottom, even if only in the near-term. The defense of both our long-term uptrend, and this head and shoulders, was perfect. If we can keep doing that, the worst will not come.

However, if we break this head and shoulders down, with a weekly close under 4190, we will head straight for this 3978 – 4100 zone. This puts us in a tricky situation, because that zone would be an ideal bottom, but the measured move of such a breakdown would go as far as 3588. Perhaps we flag out in that zone, fill in volume before going further. That would make the most sense.

As I said last week though, we must assume 4260 – 4190 is an unbreakable wall or potential bottom until we get a weekly close under it. Sticking with that assumption would have kept you out of trouble last week.

If you found this helpful and want to see more, let me know. Cheers.
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