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Removing the Diageo Paywall for a week
Many of our free subscribers have expressed their interest in reading a sample of our write-ups.

In response to your feedback, we are excited to announce the removal of the paywall on the Diageo $DEO article for an entire week! 📣

This is your chance to learn more about the company and to better understand the format of StockOpine reports. 🧐

Enjoy, and don't forget to share the word if you find it insightful!
Diageo - A Taste of Success in the Beverage Industry
Leading alcoholic brands, scale economies and a differentiated product portfolio. How will Diageo navigate the future given the changes at the wheel?

Greggs plc Highlights
  • H1’23 Sales ⬆️ by 21.5% with LFL at 16%.

  • # of stores at 2,378 with net additions of 50 Vs targeted of 150 p.a. It shall be noted that management projects that they will achieve the 150 due to the shop pipeline.

  • Evening trade expansion standing at 8.3% of total day Vs 6.5% in PY.

  • Gatwick store opening. ✅

  • Greggs App usage of 10.6% of company managed shop transactions. Up from 5.2% in PY.

“__Greggs strong performance continued in the first half of 2023 as we deliver on our strategic growth plan. With consumers remaining under pressure, we continue to offer exceptional value, which is reflected in our performance and growing market share.” _ __ “In the period we continued to open further new shops, extended trading hours into the evening and saw increased participation in the Greggs App.”_

Roisin Currie, CEO
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$SKY On an acquisition spree
Skyline Champion Corporation article is out! 📣

Among others it includes the following:

  • Recent performance, comparing it with Cavco Industries, Inc $CVCO.
  • Analysis of the strategic investment in ECN and the acquisition of Regional Homes.
  • Catalysts that will drive its future (and recent performance.
  • Updated Valuation.

Check it out and let us know of your thoughts!

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Skyline: On an acquisition spree
In August, while some experienced a quiet month, Skyline made two significant investments that are expected to bolster its competitive position.

Investing insights
Insights from Chris Mayer ‘s latest article:

1/ “Quality of the business is also a source of margin of safety. Most of the time, people think price and price alone is your margin of safety. But owning a great business can bail you out of a valuation mistake over time.”

2/“Owning a business for a long time means you’re going to own it during a stretch when it isn’t at its best.

But if the long-term thesis is still intact, you’re probably better off holding on. When the reason you own something is no longer valid, it’s probably time to move on.”

3/ “Patience. The ability to sit on a great business for two decades is a superpower worth cultivating. It’s how 100 baggers are born.”

4/ “I’ve spent lots of time researching ideas that I never bought. I’ve flown to foreign countries, met with CEOs and not bought the stock. It’s just the way investing works. You have to enjoy looking at businesses, just for the sake of learning. It’s part of the adventure.”

5/ Summary:

  1. Margin of safety is more than just price.
  2. Sell only when the thesis changes.
  3. Patience can pay off.
  4. You don’t have to buy every stock that you have evaluated. Enjoy the process.


Here’s the question we asked 👇

And here is the link:

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Woodlock House Famil
In today’s blog, I’ll answer some questions that came in response to my tweet. I got a lot of questions, some by email. More than 9 pages worth altogether! So, I won’t be able to answer them all here. Maybe I’ll do a part two. (Maybe I’ll experiment and answer them in a video). And some of the questions sent deserve a full blog post. Anyway, thank you for sending in your questions. There were many, many excellent questions. Let me preface my answers by saying: These are just my views and I offer

Great summary, thanks for sharing 🙏. And fantastic question, and I enjoyed his response
Unbundling of Microsoft Teams
When Eric Yuan, $ZM CEO was asked about the potential uplift from $MSFT unbundling of Microsoft Teams in Europe.

“And I think we should have asked these questions for FTC as well.”
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@valuablSeptember 8
Can you explain what he's saying? I can't follow this mishmash.
+ 1 comment
"Millions of people remain flexible about where they live and work, and we see this reflected in our bookings. In Q2, long-term stays remain 18% of total nights booked. And throughout the quarter, we saw an acceleration in year-over-year growth in bookings for monthly stays."

Brian Chesky CEO, $ABNB
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$ADSK Earnings Review - Q2’24

Source: Koyfin (affiliate link with a 15% discount for StockOpine readers)

Revenues of $1.34B, a 9% increase YoY and 6.0% QoQ, exceeding management’s guidance of $1.32B (mid-point) mainly due to early billings for EBAs (Enterprise Business Agreements).

Subscription revenue accounts for 94.4% of revenues and increased 9.5% YoY and 6.5% QoQ.

Billings of $1.1B down by 8% reflecting the transition from up-front billings to annual billings for multi-year contracts.

Source: Autodesk Q2’24 earnings presentation

GAAP Operating Margin of $262M up by 8.3% YoY while margin declined by 100bps to 19%.

Non-GAAP Operating Margin of $489M up by 10% YoY while margin remained flat at ~36%. In Q1 margin was 32% and it’s currently behind the mid-term goal of 38%-40%.

Net Income increased to $222M (up by 19.4%) compared to $186M in Q2’23. Net margin of 16.5% Vs 15% in Q2’23.

Source: (use coupon code STOCKOPINE for a 25% discount)

Balance sheet

Cash flow from operating activities of $135M (Vs $257M in Q2’23) – Margin of 10% (20.8% in Q2’23).
Free cash flow of $128M (Vs $246M in Q2’23) – Margin of 9.5% (19.9%).

Free cash flow of $128M was slightly higher than management expectations whereas the material drop is vastly affected by the transition of upfront to annual billings for multi-year contracts. Headwind is expected to be significant in FY24 and decline in FY25.

Strong balance sheet with Cash, Cash equivalents and marketable securities of $2.1B compared to debt and lease liabilities of $2.6B.


Management expects FY24 revenue to be between $5.405B and $5.455B (up 8%-9% YoY), increasing the lower end of estimates by $50M. Q3’FY24 Revenue estimate assumes a growth of 8%-9%.

Management expects FY24 billings to be between $5.075B and $5.175B (down by 12%-11%).

FY24 Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to remain flat at ~36%.

FY24 Free Cash Flow is expected to be between $1.17B and $1.25B.

Source: Autodesk Q2’24 earnings presentation

Other highlights

Net revenue retention rate remained within the range of 100 to 110 percent.

Direct sales accounted for 37% of sales, the highest in the last 6 quarters.

Remaining performance obligations comprised of $4.23B deferred revenue and $991M unbilled revenue, increased by 11% to $5.22B.

In Q2’24, 400,000 shares were purchased for $87 million at an average price per share of $199.7, partly offsetting stock based compensation (“SBC”) dilution. SBC remains high at 15% of revenue, with yearly estimates standing at ~13%.

“We will continue to offset dilution from our stock-based compensation program and to opportunistically accelerate repurchases when it makes sense to do so.” Debbie Clifford, CFO

Andrew Anagnost, CEO explained how Autodesk Construction Cloud is gaining traction (reporting a +100% increase in MAU in the quarter) as customers aim to streamline their workflows by having an end-to end solution.

Seen some improvements in dealing with non-compliant users.

Final thoughts


Strong performance across all sectors and products.

Forecasts revised upwards.

Transition to annual billings goes well and the number of customers reverting back to annual contracts was within expectations.


We want to see more on the profitability front but as long as the company grows we are pleased.

Disclaimer__: _Not_ a financial advice__. _The_ pos__t contains affiliate _links._

You can support our work here 👇

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Autodesk, Zoom Video Communications - Q2'24 Earnings review
Autodesk and Zoom have exceeded expectations across the board and revised their guidance upwards.

Medicare negotiations
Entresto of $NVS is among the 10 drugs that will be subject to Medicare price negotiations ➡️ Prices will go into effect in 2026.

It’s worth noting that Entresto is the largest drug of Novartis and generated sales of $1.52B over the latest quarter.

Source: (use coupon code STOCKOPINE for a 25% discount)
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Regional Homes acquisition by $SKY
  • $SKY has just announced its intent to acquire the 4th largest HUD manufacturer, Regional Homes (‘ReG’).

  • Regional Homes will add 3 manufacturing facilities (on top of the current 44) but will also add 43 retail locations. Currently, SKY operates under 31 retail locations expanding its retail and direct to customer presence.

  • Homes sold in 2022 are ~5,000 with estimated revenue of $523M. Houses sold are ~19% of units sold by SKY so the transaction, all else equal will increase market share from 20.4% to approximately 24.3%.

  • Regional Homes has ~1,200 employees translating to $435.8k revenue per employee. In contrast, SKY’s similar metric is $338.5k (for FY23).

  • SKY looks for procurement synergies and digital marketing leverage while it also expands its presence in Alabama which is the 3rd largest state for manufactured housing (according to press release). SKY plans to increase penetration in the market.

  • ReG EBITDA margin stands at 16% Vs 20.9% for SKY in FY23 & 14.6% for CVCO in FY23. Even though the deal appears margin dilutive, ReG is still more profitable than the #3 player (CVCO) ➡ 40-60 bps margin decretive per call for 6 months to 12months post acquisition.

  • On a TTM basis revenue is expected to be 10-12% lower (than $523M) due to softening market. EBITDA is expected to be fairly even driven by the govt related business. It could go down a bit in the short term.

  • Transaction EBITDA multiple stands at 5.5x (excludes earn out –future govt contracts related) which is lower than 6.6x of $CVCO and 6.1x of $SKY. So overall, price to be paid seems fair.

  • Estimated Returns on Capital (based on FY22 figures) and total purchase price 13.8%, which is below 22.8% of SKY on a TTM basis. Nonetheless, it is above the cost of capital, so at first glance it is value adding.
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