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Combined with our goal of democratizing financial research, our aim is to publish accessible analysis on innovative companies and market updates.
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US Crypto Exchange Market Share
$COIN market share declined to about 50% from 70% in December 2021 in addition to what is already a tough year for the company. Kraken reached a low of 15% in November 2021 but has since doubled to over 30%. After announcing 0% fees for $BTC.X trading against USD and stablecoins, Binance US is also likely to expand its userbase.
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Deep-Dive: Marqeta ($MQ)
As the modern card issuing creator, we believe Marqeta has a bright future ahead but not without significant risks. We hope you'll enjoy our research on the company and as always, don't hesitate to give us your thoughts in a comment!
Nice writeup! It's quite beaten down and I like the massive market opportunity. $MQ is one I need to look more into.
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Latin America economic outlook, June 2022
Latam had just begun to leave behind the disruptions caused by the pandemic when Russia invaded Ukraine in February of this year, which brought with it a set of new pressing challenges. Now, the region has to deal with stronger inflationary pressures, weakening global economic growth, and higher interest rates.

We wanted to share with you the latest Deloitte Latin America economic outlook providing details on the region's economic situation as well as the winners and losers of high commodity prices.

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Stock Market Performance Over Deep and Shallow Recessions
A UBS team looked back at how stock markets traded in 17 US slumps over the last 100
years.

They separated out shallow and deep downturns, with a 3% GDP contraction as the threshold. In big recessions, markets tended to fall about 34% and bottom out about 9 months after the start. Smaller recessions saw declines of about 11%, with the trough at 4 months.
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Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Doubles Short Positions Against European Stocks
Bridgewater Associates is short against 28 European stocks resulting in $10.5B in short positions. Its most bearish stance against the region's stocks in two years. However, it is unknown whether Bridgewater’s shorts are outright bets against the stocks, or part of a hedge.

Dalio’s firm is generally bearish on the global economy and has already positioned itself against sell-offs in US Treasuries, US equities and both US and European corporate bonds.
big gas/energy problems incoming for europes industry
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Key Takeaways From Elon Musk's Interview - Qatar Economic Forum
$TSLA CEO Musk spoke at the Qatar Economic Forum. He said that he didn't see any problems balancing $TSLA interests in China with his pursuit of $TWTR. With regards to the latter, Musk said there were still a few "unresolved matters" and added that he wanted to put the takeover on hold while he investigated how many users of the micro-blogging site are real people.

On $TSLA, he said that supply chain issues were the biggest constraints (and not competition) and that the current round of job cuts (c.10%) at the company would lead to an effective 3.5% reduction in total headcount. He also stated that in his view, $TSLA is the leading real world AI company globally.

Finally on cryptocurrencies, he reiterated his support for joke-token Dogecoin.

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US Economy "Soft Landing" Probability
An economic model maintained by the New York Fed now suggests that the probability of a "soft landing" (defined as four-quarter GDP growth staying positive over the next ten quarters) is only about 10%.

The model’s outlook is considerably more pessimistic than it was in March. It projects inflation to remain elevated in 2022 at 3.8%, up a full percentage point relative to March, and to decline only gradually toward 2% thereafter.

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New Position: Long $SEMR
We were bullish on $SEMR after our analysis of the company in February this year. However, the stock was trading close to our target price and given the macro-economic environment and especially its impact on the valuation of tech stocks, we decided to wait before initiating a position. The stock is down c.34% since the publication of our analysis.

We believe the current price represents an attractive opportunity to buy a fast growing company with a strong secular trend and a large TAM. We have been gradually buying shares over the past few weeks.

We would be happy to hear your thoughts. Full analysis below for those interested.
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