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@rahulsetty
Rahul Setty
Value & growth investor waiting for the "fat pitch". Focused on good process, no need to be a hero.
22 following27 followers
$HIMS We Are Still So Damn Early
Hims and Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS) is an incredibly attractive opportunity driven by fundamental performance, even after the recent outperformance in shares. I think the stock is a very plausible 10-bagger over the next decade, if not sooner.

In the below article, I discussed the telehealth company's performance, competitive positioning, strategy/vision, management alignment, future outlook, financial model, and forward stock expectations. I put a lot of work into this so I hope you enjoy, and let me know if you have any questions or feedback.

exitvelocity.substack.com
Hims & Hers Health: We Are Still So. Damn. Early.
This telehealth company is up 28% in the last three sessions since posting surprise profitability in Q4 2023, but the lion's share of upside remains.

Out of curiosity...what percent of your income do you save/invest?
As much as investors focus on their returns, those within the first decade or two of their accumulation phase would be wiser to focus on living within their means and saving/investing judiciously. Charlie Munger famously illustrated the importance of having one's assets snowball when he said, “The first $100,000 is a bitch, but you gotta do it. I don’t care what you have to do – if it means walking everywhere and not eating anything that wasn’t purchased with a coupon, find a way to get your hands on $100,000. After that, you can ease off the gas a little bit.

So Commonstock, how much do you save relative to where you are in your journey?
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Twilio ($TWLO): The Pendulum Swings Both Ways
Hi all! I published my first Substack post this morning, a deep dive into Twilio.

"I believe Twilio is a high-quality business that offers a large short-term dislocation and a long-term opportunity at current prices. While the market was only concerned with revenue growth in 2020-2021 and GAAP profits/dilution now, what ultimately drives long-run stock prices is free cash flow per share, of which the company is poised to produce in spades for many years."

Here are some highlights:
  • 122% dollar-based net expansion
  • Mission critical and very sticky
  • Category-defining product and dominant market position
  • Nearly a $2 billion in gross profit run rate
  • Will begin to produce FCF in Q1 (my est.) with massive operating leverage ahead

Despite the stock price being in an extended tailspin, this is a business that is continuing to get stronger and is likely to produce exceptional returns for shareholders. I am long $TWLO and added to my position on today's weakness.

Please give this a read and consider subscribing if you like it!

exitvelocity.substack.com
Twilio: The Pendulum Swings Both Ways
Twilio stock is completely untethered from fundamentals, presenting opportunity. A deep dive into this polarizing enterprise.

Great write-up! Did not realize that Lawson's super voting rights were expiring next year. Agree that a buyout would cap returns (and a real shame to long term shareholders). Been long since 2019 and following the company closely. I went to their Signal conference back in 2019! Have subscribed to your Substack - cheers!
+ 6 comments
Only two things matter for stock performance, all else equal: a company's returns on incremental capital and how long they can reinvest at these elevated rates. Everything else is noise. I think about this a lot.

@etfs11/05/2022
you left out 2 critical words, long term, stock performance.
+ 8 comments
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