It's been a very sobering couple of weeks on the US stock market with macros & politics continuing to drive negative market sentiment. The predominant narrative has been worries about how much higher the Fed will raise interest rates and whether they'll be high for longer. Now we can add the looming Government shut shown to short-term negative sentiment. That the key takeaway for long-term investors, it's short-term worries driving the stock market lower.

The TA picture for the S&P 500 index shows us just how strong that negative sentiment is driving the market lower.

We're well below the short-term 50-Day moving average which is now turning down to confirm a short-term downtrend. You can see we had a series of red long-body candles as well as a gap down. This is all ugly stuff. The key level that every market technician is going to be looking at is near the 4,200 level. That's the convergence between the expected support line based on the "change of parity" hypothesis (what was once resistance has now become support) and the all important 200-Day moving average. If we break sustainably below this level, we could be in for some further pain. Usually you'll see some "stickiness" at this key level as the battle lines between bulls and bears are drawn. If the macro news gets worse, no TA support line is going to work.

When we're a net buyer of stocks, we're told to frame market dips as a positive because we can buy your favourite stocks and funds at a cheaper price. While true, the reality is it's easier to buy when the market is rising because we're helped along by the dopamine hit of a portfolio balance on the rise. When the market is falling, we tend to begrudgingly buy more stocks or units in our funds because we know it's the right thing to do. But there's no dopamine hit and it feels like there's little to celebrate. The market doesn't suit those with a delicate constitution. Short-term pain is the nature of stock market investing and that's why we get paid the big bucks further down the track.

"Investing is like exercising for all-round physical fitness. You have to be consistent and accept there's no reward without pain."