It has been a wild ride since the start of the pandemic.
I'll publish a complete update on
$DG on Tuesday morning (Monday is a holiday in the U.S.), but one quick thought: I'm pretty surprised to see them reiterate the FY22 EPS guide (I think the market is as well, which is why shares are up 10%+ premarket). We saw significant P&L pressure on both GM's and SG&A this Q (with EBIT -18% YoY), which leaves a lot of work over the remainder of the year to get to DD EPS growth (53rd week helps).
On the other hand,
$DG looks well positioned IMO to navigate through this period (relative to retail peers; I'll need to update
$WMT,
$DLTR, and
$FIVE as well). As shown above, they lagged by a wide margin throughout FY21, largely due to business mix. Based on commentary from Walmart and Target, I think we'll see some of that reverse going forward. (A lot of the general merchandise categories that
$DG has a small / no presence in are rolling over.)
As always, it's important to keep short-term results in the proper context (assuming you're a long-term investor, as I am). The underlying TSR algorithm for
$DG remains in tact, and pOpshelf, Mexico, etc., are important additions to the thesis (optionality). FWIW, the equity traded at ~17x forward in advance of the Q1 results.