Good morning contrarians!

Today is the first Friday of the month, making it all about Non Farm Payrolls. The numbers are out at 0830. Economists expect 170,000 new jobs, effectively in line with the 187,000 seen last month, dropping the unemployment rate to 3.7% from 3.8%.

It’s the same playbook as before: hoping for data that shows a slowing labor market. If it materializes with a number (ideally much) lower than 170k, that could shift the narrative to something more conducive to risk-taking. A hot number, on the other hand, would bring fears of ‘higher for longer’ back in force.

More here: