A Recession Does Not Care About Your Fundamental Analysis
One thing I speak out a lot on this platform about is buying solely off fundamental analysis. If we see a recession, no matter how strong the fundamental analysis is, the share value is going to decouple with it. Yes, profitable companies will hold up better than unprofitable ones, but I see so many people rushing to buy the dip just to see their positions down 20%+ in the next month.
Have some patience. Let the macro environment play out then buy some dips using technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
As a macro TA heavy guy, we still have a while to go before it’s a buy the dip type of environment.
Now THIS is a hot take. 🍿
No but for real, I’m sitting out for a bit longer. Macro environment is too uncertain for me to make any decisions. Still, imo people on Commonstock DCAing their portfolios for a 5+ year time horizon will still strike gold.
@josh If we are looking at 5+ years absolutely but if I told you you could get 20% off or 80% off, wouldn’t you wait for 80% off?
A lot of people on CS will buy at 20% all the way down to 80% instead of waiting for a reversal or bottoming to buy around 80% down.
Timing the market is a real thing, it just involves learning technical analysis.
@josh Here is a great place to start. As a TA macro guy, I look for a base and break. Sure I won’t catch the exact bottom, but I for sure won’t buy the whole way down. This is called stage analysis and it’s used for macro TA trends. This might help you identify the trends on high time frames.
I think we could see $SPY around $200 by end of next year
@josh I can’t take credit for these, but they are a strategy called stage analysis which I use often.
I rather let it go up consecutively for a few days to confirm it's going up and lose a bit of the bottom profits than to think it's the bottom.
Since I am not well versed in TA timing a bottom is a very difficult skill to perfect. Any suggestions for resources that help you explain the basics without jargon ?