Tradeweb is a compounding beast eating market share in an inevitable trend in financial markets.
The current price of ~$73 does not reflect the strength of the fundamentals, which thrive amid volatile markets, creating an asymmetric opportunity.
In this article, I’ll explain my Tradeweb thesis in a few charts.
STOP phone calls
> 35-40% of the US Treasury trading happens on voice calls.
Many fund managers still make calls to brokers rather than a few clicks on a platform like retails do on Robinhood (I’ve seen it!). This is clearly inefficient.
Tradeweb offers a leading electronic platform to facilitate institutional bond trading.
The Fixed Income Market ("bonds") is catching up with electrification:
> ~75% of Equity trading is done electronically vs ~60% in Fixed Income.
This is an immense opportunity for leading Fixed Income platforms like Tradeweb.
High growth - high margins. What else?
Tradingweb as a trading platform, derives 70% of its revenues as a % "bite" of the transacted volume.
As a consequence, Tradeweb makes more money when investors trade more or increase the size of their bond portfolios.
> Revenues grow at ~0% marginal cost. TW has no trading risk. It needs to keep users.
Tradeweb is taking market share in the US Treasury trading market:
> 20% of US Treasury trading is facilitated by Tradeweb