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Ollie's: "Over Our Skis"
"The net result, as I see it, is as follows: Ollie’s became a messy story in late 2019, most notably due to lackluster 2019 comps and the passing of co-founder and CEO Mark Butler. Those concerns took a back seat in mid-2020, as pandemic-related headwinds led to a previously unimaginable improvement in comps, profit margins, and earnings. But now, as we look ahead to 2022, the core issue has resurfaced: Is Ollie’s a strong business that has the ability to >2x its U.S. footprint over the next 10-15 years, generating attractive incremental returns in the process, or are underlying issues putting the retailer’s long-term success into question?"

thescienceofhitting.com
Ollie's: "Over Our Skis"
In August 2020, closeout retailer Ollie’s reported a 43% increase in Q2 FY20 same store sales (SSS); to put that number in context, the company hadn’t reported a single quarter of double digit SSS growth since its IPO in July 2015. That result, which was reflective of a massive tailwind from U.S. government stimulus in response to the pandemic, was clearly unsustainable; as CEO John Swygert noted on the Q1 FY20 call (when it was already apparent that a strong Q2 FY20 was on the horizon for Ollie’s), “

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