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Why I believe the bear hasn’t left…
“If you’re predicting a soft landing, you’re going against decades of history” - Stanley Druckenmiller

“MARKETS FACE DOWNSIDE AFTER JULY JUMP; FED WILL NEED MORE HIKES TO COOL INFLATION, RISKING RECESSION: BRIDGEWATER'S PATTERSON”

“Neutral is to rate as transitory is to
inflation” - Bill Ackman

As much as I love the recent run up, it worries me. The biggest short term rallies happen during bear markets.

Some stats:

  • ‘08 had 5 relief rallies, averaging +14%
  • ‘01 had 6 relief rallies, averaging +17%

Why wouldn’t this be a bear market rally? I don’t see any positive signs from leading indicators. Fed isn’t as dovish as people think either.

Until inflation is under control, I’m very cautious!

Don’t get caught in the hype. Prices drive sentiment, not the other way around.

ThomasFJE's avatar
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