An economic model maintained by the New York Fed now suggests that the probability of a "soft landing" (defined as four-quarter GDP growth staying positive over the next ten quarters) is only about 10%.

The model’s outlook is considerably more pessimistic than it was in March. It projects inflation to remain elevated in 2022 at 3.8%, up a full percentage point relative to March, and to decline only gradually toward 2% thereafter.

Full report: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/06/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-june-2022/