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Inflation surprises to the downside in June
- Headline CPI: 3.0% YoY (-0.1% MoM), below 3.1% expected
- Core CPI: 3.3% YoY (+0.1% MoM), below 3.4% expected
Key points:
- Goods prices continue deflationary trend: -1.8% YoY
- Services inflation cooling: +5.1% YoY, lowest since Apr 2022
- Supercore inflation: 3-month annualized rate at 1.2%, down from 2.4%
Market reaction:
- 10-year Treasury yield 10 bps to 4.187%
- S&P 500 and NASDAQ slightly down in early trading
- Small caps 3.0% on increased rate cut expectations
The Fed is definitely getting the confidence it needs on inflation data to creep toward rate cuts. $TLT $SPY $QQQ
MTS Insights on Notion
US CPI: June 2024 | MTS Insights
The latest US CPI data for June 2024 shows inflation continuing to moderate, with both headline and core measures surprising by coming in below expectations. The headline CPI fell -0.1% MoM and rose 3.0% YoY, down from 3.3% YoY in May and below the expected 3.1% YoY. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.1% MoM and 3.3% YoY, also below expectations of 3.4% YoY and down from 3.4% YoY in May. This marks the lowest annual headline inflation rate since June 2023 and the lowest core inflation rate since April 2021.
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