Weekly update from Composer. How did your portfolio perform last week?

March Madness! Stocks came roaring back last week, posting their best returns of 2022. A welcome reprieve after a few tough weeks. In other news, the Federal Reserve is finally on the move, raising their target rate 25bps and signaling their intention to raise rates at each of their six remaining meetings this year. You can read our thoughts on inflation here.

Where has the vol gone? Volatility expectations, as measured by the CBOE VIX Index, fell to 24 down from 38 earlier this month. It would appear, however, that volatility moved to China.

This past week with equities surging, we saw a divergence in signal performance. Equities are outperforming bonds for the one-week and one-month periods, shifting some symphonies to Risk On. However, symphonies using relative bond market performance as a signal most likely remain in Risk Off, as BND is underperforming short-term treasuries (SHY). Further, the S&P 500 finished the week slightly below its 200-day moving average, signaling caution.

FYI: Investment Strategy = Symphony