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$RDFN Earnings: Q4 2020 Qualitative Ramblings
$.049 Forecasted; $.11 Actual

Interesting things to note
  • Number of customers increased 54%. Company was also holding back demand given caps on REs. Could be higher but they need to balance
  • Forecast for demand won't be
  • Recruitment is key. Agent growth has increased 36%; partner agents 83%
  • Expect agent growth will be driven by digital ads. budget has increased 30%
  • Making offer immediately after a tour to buy a home has increased 15% YoY. Improve success rate by increasing experience per user
  • Changes in DOJ regulation will allow more transparent pricing. Adds price pressure from brokers which adds to Redfin's current moat.

They're going to see similar numbers to 2019 Q1. Growth should be seen more in Q2-Q3. Continued expansion of Redfin in new markets should increase sales as they get more penetration statewide.

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