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Don't underestimate the elasticity in DRAM and NAND markets!
DRAM bit supply should increase 18.6% in 2022, but a demand increase of 17.1%, causes a 15% YoY decrease in pricing
This decrease would be in H1, and H2 could even have price increases.
Annual DRAM revenue for 2022 $91.54B, 0.3% YoY increase
NAND bit supply should increase 31.8% in 2022, but demand increase of 30.8%, an 18% YoY decrease in pricing,
A small shift up or down in demand blows out consensus estimates. Just think about it. DRAM demand 5% higher makes pricing go from down 15% to up a bit, and $MU and other dram plays crazy cheap. Likewise, 5% lower demand than consensus sends DRAM tanking.
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