Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are quiet ahead of a crucial CPI report at 0830…

Economists expect the headline figure to have increased 0.4% month-over-month in April, up from the 0.1% MoM recorded last month. The annualized figure is expected to remain at 5.0%. Core CPI is also expected to increase by 0.4% MoM, which is identical to last month’s reading, whilst the YoY figure is expected to come in at 5.5% (5.6% last month).

Friendly reminder that for all their (numerous) faults, economists usually get the CPI pretty right. The final number usually doesn’t deviate too much from their estimate — usually no more than 0.2 percentage points. The market is wise to this of course, so even a small miss can have an effect. In this case, if we get a hotter-than-expected reading it will drive the fear of Fed rate hikes back into the hearts and minds of investors.