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What if $UPST is a Good Business?
Upstart is quite the controversial company. From $20 to $400 to $13, the market has absolutely no clue how to value the business. Which makes sense - if management is correct in their assessment of the long-term opportunity, the market is unfathomably large and Upstart will hold a decent chunk. If they're wrong, the business is likely to slowly fade into oblivion.
The following is an excerpt from my recent article. If you find it interesting, please share with a friend. Constructive criticism encouraged! (Not a comprehensive write up but happy to discuss the business in greater detail).
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"I have little doubt investors at today’s prices will earn great returns over time. If we place Upstart in Howard Marks’ risk/reward framework, it is now on the far right: the distribution of outcomes has likely reached its widest point.
_Today’s investors could make multiples of their money, but they could also lose their shirt. In the spirit of full disclosure, my money is optimistic, but who knows if I’m any good at investing? (I sure don’t.) Either way, I’ll be around to see what happens on the other side of this credit cycle."
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investorsperspective.substack.com
What if Upstart is a Good Business?
Good business model, great management, cyclical market.
Realized the quote starts off in the wrong way. I do NOT recommend buying Upstart unless you have independently arrived at that conclusion by your own research
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