Despite negative consumer sentiment, US Retail Sales still appear to be booming, rising 7.5% over the last year and hitting a new high in October. But after adjusting for inflation, the story changes. Real Retail Sales peaked in March 2021 and are down 0.3% over the last year.

Given the wide gap between inflation and wages, how has the US consumer been able to maintain their spending? They’re borrowing more and saving less.

Take a look at why I think all those good headlines you saw over the weekend are actually a trap and why the consumer is actually in trouble.

[https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/black-friday-fools-gold-indicator](https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/black-friday-fools-gold-indicator)

Given that Black Friday has turned into a week-long, sometimes month long time frame for killer deals, I agree that a lot of the data coming out of these sales will be bent to by retailers/media outlets to suggest heavy spending and that the consumer is not reeling in spending. But it’s too important of a caveat that the discount window is so wide now and not just a single day event like it used to be…my spending the last week definitely increased, but because I planned for this exact window and purchased in advanced like a years worth of toothpaste 😅 I agree with your fool’s gold overall take and still think important to tread likely and to take the data coming out of this week with a grain of salt, for now..

Jensen Butler

Why you need to be cautious of preliminary headlines from consumer spending this holiday

https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/black-friday-fools-gold-indicator

Black Friday: Fools Gold Indicator 

Black Friday Sales: Fools Gold Indicator

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