There is a lot of noise surrounding Peloton $PTON but it is important to note that whilst the bull case back in 2019 may have been compelling (albeit, flawed in hindsight), so much has changed since then.

What was once an exclusive, integrated, product with level-headed management has become nothing more than a team that got too far ahead of itself and didn't know how to reign it in. The management team handled the surplus of demand poorly, assuming it would continue and allocated capital in a way that aligned with that misunderstanding. Now, they are slashing costs and having to degrade the quality of their operating model to avoid bankruptcy. There is a myriad of other issues such as their fumbling on pricing and their lying to investors about solvency and the need to raise capital earlier this year.

But the final nail in the coffin (I believe) is that now Peloton is tearing down the thing that made them so unique in the first place; exclusivity. Now that Bikes and apparel will be sold on Amazon, I fear that Peloton will suffer the fate of Under Armour, a company that cheapened its once-premium brand image by focussing on volume above all else.

I tend not to touch fitness products/businesses, so have never been a shareholder of Peloton, but I have watched it closely. The important thing to note here is that we shouldn't simply extrapolate our beliefs based on the fact the share price has fallen so hard. The "stuff" in between is what matters, and in this case, Peloton is so far apart from the business it was 2-3 years ago, it's almost unrecognisable.

The credo of "be greedy when others are fearful" does not apply here. This quote, often misinterpreted, only holds true when the share price is behaving in a manner that is not related to the quality of the business or the fundamental picture. In this case, Peloton's share price has been thumped because both of those factors have degraded vsatly.

https://commonstock.com/post/e458d6c8-9025-4c41-8dbc-a18cfd03d231 by @fintwit