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Five Below: "Nothing But Upside"?

From today's update:

"The recent results at Five Below present some questions, particularly relative to the FY25 financial targets that management set in early 2022: (1) FY25 revenues of ~$5.7 billion, ~60% higher than the ~$3.5 billion expected in FY23e; (2) FY25 EPS of ~$10 per share (“more than double EPS” from $5.0 in 2021), ~85% higher than the ~$5.4 per share expected in FY23e; (3) FY25 EBIT margins of ~14%, ~300 basis points above 2023e; and (4) ~2,200 stores by yearend FY25, which implies an additional 650 (cumulative) net new units in 2024 and 2025 (that will require a pace of annual unit growth that is ~2x higher than what FIVE reported over the past five years)... I’d argue Mr. Market is expressing some doubts on the near term “Triple-Double” targets; is that a fair assessment based on today’s trajectory (an unrealistic goal), or is it a compelling opportunity for investors?"

thescienceofhitting.com
Five Below: "Nothing But Upside"?
Monday’s post focused on Dollar General, which is currently facing significant business headwinds.

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