A January recap! Released in mid-March… After skipping the October 2022 and December 2022 recaps…

Yeesh. And to make matters worse, I completely missed the 4th anniversary recap! How embarrassing. Not sure which is worse:

The 2023 fantasy investing season kicks off this week! Want to play? Drop your portfolio in the comments. Good luck!

Starting to see more and more of these negative news bits around $SHOP. Recent glassdoor trends are also concerning and corroborate the narrative that there are culture issues. Concerning.

In my last quarterly recap, I wrote: “the first quarter of 2022 is likely the worse investing quarter than I have had (and hopefully ever will have)”.

Well, the second quarter would like to have a word.

As bad as the first quarter of 2022 was for performance of the Freedom Portfolio, the second quarter has been worse. It was so bad, it took me nearly two full months to write this quarterly recap!

$TSLA 19%

$MELI 14%

$SHOP 10%

$SE 9%

$NVCR 7%

$TTD 6%

$SWAV 5%

$ETSY 5%

$SQ 4%

$TDOC 3%

YTD Return: -51%

Returns since inception (Oct 2018): 33%

I know the quarterly recap is late, but it's coming soon!

Hearing the news out of $SHOP today, I was reminded of the email Tobi had sent out a year ago about how Shopify was a team, not a family.

It's an important thing to remember. No matter how much you may love your job, it doesn't necessarily love you back.

Commonstock is looking for my best investment idea for the next 12 months? I can make my pitch with essentially two pictures:

Right now, Tumor Treating Fields are only approved as treatment for glioblastoma. Above are the trials that they currently have scheduled to expand the conditions they are approved to treat. Data is expected to come in over the next 6 months to 2 years.

The above shows the annual number of US patients for the conditions above. As previously mentioned, right now Novocure is only approved for Glioblastoma (GBM in the picture above). These trials have the potential to expand their possible market 14x.

Is there a possibility some of these trials don't pan out? Of course. However, Novocure has seen nothing but exceptional success in previous trials, including a precursor to the Lunar trial for lung cancer which has the language: "it is likely unnecessary and possibly unethical for patients randomized to the control arm of the trial to continue accrual according to the original protocol".

Despite all of this potential, the market seems to have soured on Novocure, with the stock price about a third of where it was at its high in mid-2021. I like the risk/reward trade-off of Novocure here.

It’s been a bloodbath in my portfolio for many months now, and I finally got around to shaking things up a little bit. These transactions happened a few weeks ago. Sorry for the delay getting this written. Who knew that 5 day a week swim and dive practice for two kids would be such a time sink? Also, some COVID in the family didn’t help. It does help to put things in perspective, though. Alpha is nice, but health is better. Anyway, here are some of the moves I made in my portfolio lately, along with my rationale.