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@northstarcapital
North Star Capital
$67.1M follower assets
Follow me on Twitter for more market and investment related content. Twitter: twitter.com/NrthStarCapital Not investment advice.
128 following298 followers
Peloton Pricing Power
Big news out of $PTON earnings was the price cut of the original bike by $400 to $1,495. Shares were down sharply as a result.

Bulls believe this squeezes competition & will help drive high margin sub growth.

Bears believe the price cut represents weakness in demand and the business is in trouble.

What has gotten lost in the Bull/Bear debate is that Peloton has a higher level Bike+ option that is priced 11% HIGHER than the historic bike was ever priced at.

I’d argue this is still a premium brand despite price cuts in the older model.

Peloton is following the Apple ( $AAPL ) playbook of discounting older models following new releases.

iPhone 12 (2020 Model) Release Example:

  • iPhone 11 (2019 Model) 14% price cut from original price
  • iPhone XR (2018 Model) 33% price cut from original price

So Peloton is effectively selling a 2014 model bike for only a 33% discount to its starting price.

I don’t know about you, but that sounds like pricing power to me.

That would be the equivalent of buying an iPhone 6 (2014 model) today for $425 dollars.

Peloton now has a lower-cost bike at $1.5k, enabling it to complete in the low/mid range market while driving high margin sub growth.

The lower cost option also gives Peloton strong products for consumers in int’l markets who might be less inclined to embrace >$2k bikes.

What does everyone think about the price decreases Peloton introduced? Why are you bearish or bullish?
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Difference is, people use handheld phones almost as an extension of their physical being. Not the same for exercise equipment.

Whilst I don't agree that the price reduction necessarily means Peloton lack pricing power, it is likely because they are suffering waning demand now (to be expected).
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Even for amazing businesses like Facebook there are short term reasons to sell along the journey.

Hindsight bias makes yesterday’s $1 trillion milestone feel like it was inevitable.

Investing is hard. $FB
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This is a great reminder for new and old investors alike. There will always be good reasons to do the opposite of what you're doing.

Investing is hard.
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Facebook & The Creator Economy
Mark Zuckerberg and the Head of Instagram, Adam Mosseri, had a 40 minute live conversation discussing new and exciting features coming to Instagram to empower the creator economy.

Key Takeaways/Clips Below 👇👇


Zuckerberg on the Growing Creator Economy

“A lot more people are getting to engage in creative work rather than jobs they find monotonous. You want to give people the tools to do that as a hobby and so it can be a job for millions of people."


Zuckerberg on Monetizing the Creator Economy

"One of the bigger pieces that needs to get built out, and it feels like we are at an inflection point is around monetization. There are lots of different models."

Some of the new monetization methods coming to the Facebook platforms include:
  • Subscriptions & Tipping
  • Advertising Revenue Share
  • Creators Plugging Directly Into Commerce


Zuckerberg on Creators Building out Their own Personal Shops

"Businesses and small businesses can set up shops on Instagram and Facebook to sell stuff online. We have seen a lot of creators setting up shops too. One part of creator business model is you can create great content and then you can sell stuff."

Creator Shops feels like low hanging fruit for Facebook and Instagram to roll out. Many creators/influencers already use Shopify ($SHOP) to sell their merch and this would plug into Instagram Shops easily given their partnership.

The nature of limited time clothing drop sales by brands such as Nelk & Supreme pairs well with the traditional Instagram feed.


Zuckerberg on Building an Affiliate Marketplace

"People look to creators for recommendations about what is good, especially for spaces they are experts on and creating around. Creators should get a cut of the sales of the things that they are recommending."

Integrating the Affiliate Marketplace with Instagram Shops would be incredibly powerful. It's easy to imagine creators tagging products by SKU level in their posts & followers easily purchasing the items via Instagram Shops. Each purchase = small commission for the creator.

Using this post from Rory Mcllroy as an example:

Imagine if a creator could tag the gym bag, individual golf polos, hats, etc. by SKU and checkout could be handled via Instagram Shops.

This is the holy grail of marketing. An ad that truly doesn't feel like an ad.


Zuckerberg on a Marketplace to Match Creators With Brands Who Want to Sponsor Them

"This will have very favorable terms to creators. We aren't building this out to make a lot of money. If we help creators make more money that will help a creator economy emerge which will make it so there's more content across the services."


Adam Mosseri on Discovery and Facilitating Conversations Between Creators and Brands

"Some people are getting overpaid and some are underpaid. We want to help facilitate that in a responsible way. Imagine being a brand - I want to reach 20 year old women and we could provide a list of creators to connect to."


How to Help Facilitate Building a Creator Middle Class

"Instagram has done a good job at creating value for creators who were established. We haven't done as well with aspiring creators and that's been a big miss on our part."

It was nice to see Mark and Adam address this. Discovery & focusing on aspiring creators is where TikTok has been able to gain an edge versus YouTube & Instagram. For the first time, aspiring creators can gain a following much more quickly.


How Reels Helps to Build a Creator Middle Class

"Reels is the first part of Instagram that is proactively trying to find new talent and help it break whereas historically we have gone with whatever has a lot of engagement."


How Smaller Creators can Make Money in the Future

"By showing that you have loyalty from your followers and you can help drive sales the affiliate program can give signal for who are going to be the people brands should want to be associated more with."

Final Thoughts:
  • Zuck and the rest of Facebook clearly understand how important creators are to their platform. Monetization initiatives for creators are crucial because it creates a flywheel (more content, more engagement, more ads, etc.) for the rest of the business.
  • If Facebook/Instagram can pull of the Affiliate Marketplace succesfully I think Pinterest $PINS is in huge trouble

  • I think it's under discussed how Instagram, TikTok, $SNAP, and other social media companies willingness to pay creators based off views is a threat to YouTube's flywheel.

If you enjoyed this memo give me a follow on Commonstock @northstarcapital and on Twitter @willgriffith16

Disclosure: Long $FB
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X (formerly Twitter)
Will Griffith (@WillGriffith16) / X

You don’t have to do disclosure 😘 That’s why you’re on commonstock with portfolio linked!
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Never-Sell Portfolio
If you were to put together a never-sell portfolio what would it include?

Here are some of my picks:

Facebook $FB - Social Media/Advertising Toll Roads
Visa & Mastercard $V | $MA - Payments Toll Roads
Microsoft $MSFT - Business Toll Road
Equinix $EQIX - Data Toll Road
Constellation Software $CSU.TO - Broad Software Beta
Amazon, MercadoLibre, & Alibaba $AMZN | $MELI | $BABA- eCommerce & Retail
Costco $COST - Specialty Retail
Disney & Netflix $DIS | $NFLX - Entertainment

What names am I missing here?

@amanda02/15/2021
Why $META instead of $GOOG? I have the opposite of you there but thinking of selling Google next month to consolidate.
+ 6 comments
Using Tattoos as Investment Research
Investors often are looking to invest in the next great company or brand that will transform the category they compete in.

There are few brands/companies in the world where their customers are so devoted that they will voluntarily tattoo the company logo on their body.

Some Examples:

This tattoo index is usually a strong sign of an incredible brand and devoted customer base which are usually a recipe for success in business.

Performance the last 5 years:
  • Peloton: 420%
  • Apple: 388%
  • NKE: 186%
  • SPY/S&P 500: 83%
  • DIS: 76%
  • HOG: -36%

What other business come to mind for the tattoo index?
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@amanda02/03/2021
This is the memo you didn’t know you needed
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The Future of Apple is Services 🍎
Apple Services create leverage for the company while at the same time adding value for the customer. Apple and the customer experience a more enhanced integration within the Apple ecosystem, and Apple generates high-margin revenue through the cross-sale of additional value-add services.

A great example of this is Fitness+. Fitness+ allows Apple Watch users to get more value out of their watch and tightens the integration within Apple's ecosystem between the Apple Watch, Airpods, and Apple TV/iPhone/iPad.

Apple's Services revenue grew 24% y/y and generated $15.8B in sales during the first fiscal quarter of 2021. Services have become increasingly important to Apple's success as upgrade cycles for new iPhone sales continues to lengthen.

Since FY16, Services has grown its annual revenue from $24.3B to nearly $53.8B in FY 2020. Services revenue continues to grow as percentage of Apple's total revenue, reaching 19.6% of total revenue in FY 2020.

As Services continue to make up more of Apple's total revenue, margins for the company should expand. During FQ21, gross margins for Services and Products were 68.4% and 35.1%, respectively.

How does Apple continue to grow Services?

Apple can grow its Services revenue by increasing prices, more iPhone users signing up for the current services available, or the creation of new services.

Analysts who follow the company closely believe the following services make the most sense to add to the Apple ecosystem:

  • Stocks/Financial Services - Apple could harness its extremely strong brand loyalty and take another step beyond the Apple Card to add additional financial services. Apple could offer low-fee brokerage accounts, trading services like TD Ameritrade and Robinhood, and even wealth management services.
  • Productivity Services - Apple's Calendar and Mail app despite their limited functionality remain some of the most used apps on the iPhone. Could Apple build a Superhuman or Calendly like product and charge a monthly fee?
  • Podcasts - Following the Spotify playbook, Apple could offer premium podcasts that are only available via Apple Music.

What other services could Apple create to cross-sell to its userbase?

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It’s a bit out there/controversial but I think Apple is positioned perfectly to be a health insurance provider. They have better data on your physical and mental well-being than anyone and a mountain of cash available for underwriting.

Obviously outside their core competencies but I think it’s an interesting one.
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Roku Acquires Quibi 📺
Well it's official

"Roku, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKU) announced today that The Roku Channel will become the exclusive place to stream more than 75 premium shows and documentaries that Quibi created in conjunction with Hollywood’s leading studios and production companies. Roku acquired the exclusive global distribution rights to Quibi’s award-winning shows and will make the content available for free on an ad-supported basis in 2021 to all Roku users."

💵Price Paid

An official price paid for Quibi's catalog was not disclosed by Roku, but it is rumored to have been less than $100M. This is just slightly below the $1.75 billion that Quibi raised from private market investors. Ouch.

💭Thoughts On The Acquisition

I don't think Quibi was wrong about consumer's interest/demand for short format shows, but they were wrong about the mobile only distribution. If Quibi launched a Fire Stick and Roku app I think they would still be in business today.

How does Quibi's content catalog fit into Roku's business model?

Quibi's content catalog should help to drive further engagement and consumer knowledge of The Roku Channel ("TRC"). All 75 of the Quibi shows will be added to TRC and will be available to stream for free on an ad-supported basis. Roku believes there is a strong market for AVOD (Ad-supported Video On Demand) and their acquisition of Quibi's catalog further places their bet on this model.

I'm exited to see how this acquisition will play out over the next few years. Will Roku see an increase in TRC usage? Will Roku further push into the streaming and original content space?

Would love to hear from others who are long $ROKU or have an interest in the company. 👇

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At that price it’s worth a shot, you never know what TV show may become a hit

I like it just simply as a move to stay aggressive, not sure of the math of getting a ROI on that $100m solely through advertising but I totally support the venture nonetheless
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New Year’s Resolutions & Goals 🎉
Posting this to hold myself accountable.

Goals:

  • 📝Write 100 Commonstock Memos
  • 🐦Reach 1,000 Followers on Twitter (Shameless Plug @ willgriffith16)
  • ✅ Get Verified on Commonstock
  • 📚 Read 10 Investing Books
  • 🤓Pass the CAIA Exam

What are your New Year’s Resolutions & Goals?
X (formerly Twitter)
Will Griffith (@WillGriffith16) / X

Roku To Buy Quibi’s Catalog?! 📺
Quibi, the streaming service that everyone loved to dunk on, is in talks to sell its catalog to $ROKU.

I’m interested to see the price Roku will pay for this if the deal is finalized.

Hot Take 🔥

I believe Quibi wasn’t wrong about the short format shows, but they were wrong about the mobile only distribution. If Quibi launched a Fire Stick and Roku app I think they would still be in business.

What does everyone think of this potential acquisition?

WSJ
WSJ News Exclusive | Roku Nears Deal to Buy Rights to Quibi’s Content
Quibi is in advanced talks to sell its content catalog to Roku, as the short-form streaming service winds down its operations following an unsuccessful run.

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