Nathan Worden's avatar

$333.6M follower assets

Buy and continually verify. MBA and MLD. Long term mindset. Innovation enthusiast.

Optimistic, but not inappropriately so.

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Nathan Worden's avatar
$333.6m follower assets
Fed Chair Powell speaks at The Brookings Institute on economic outlook
Today's speech seems to confirm what was evident in the Fed's minutes. The Fed has shifted and will likely go slower with their rises. They aren't going to stop hiking rates. There is no pause. But they will likely hike 50 bps in December instead of 75 bps, and after that will do 25 bps a meeting in 2023.

Q&A is happening live right now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYUIt6FtIB4
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"Right now people's wages are being eaten up by inflation. So what you want is to have inflation stable, and then have a very strong labor market where the biggest wage gains are going to the bottom wage earners" — Powell

That sounds nice. Yes let's do that.
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Powell's 3 Questions
Jerome Powell characterized questions about interest rate hikes into three categories today in his press conference:

• How high?
• How fast?
• How long?

Here's how he answered those questions:

How high:
"A level that will bring inflation to 2%. That level is uncertain and we will find it over time"

How fast:
"We want to make sure we don't make the mistake of failing to tighten enough or loosening too soon"

How long:
"At some point it will be time to slow the pace of increases. That point may be next meeting or the one after that"

But also:

"It is premature to be thinking about pausing our rate hikes. We need ongoing rate hikes"
What will the Fed do in December?
5%Raise 25 bps
45%Raise 50 bps
45%Raise 75 bps
5%Raise 100 bps
40 VotesPoll ended on: 11/5/2022
Big Tech Earnings reactions are negative so far
  • "Meta shares plummet 13% on weak fourth-quarter forecast and earnings miss"
  • "Alphabet just had its worst day since March 2020, shares down 9%"
  • "Microsoft shares sink more than 7% on weak guidance"

Apple and Amazon are up tomorrow, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the pain continues.

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Validated to: No
$$AAPL$$ will be under$ $144.83$/share on 10/27/2022$
33 Votes
Earnings Recap in 23 seconds
If you only have 23 seconds to get an update on how earnings went today. I can guarantee this is the best way to get that update:

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Investor Battle!

If you want to participate in an Investor Battle, let me know! We're currently looking for someone to take on @jdub over Lucid Air $LCID. Maybe @christian7621 or @dissectmarkets? ?

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September Portfolio
Pretty surprised Arista Networks has grown to the size it has and has stayed at the top of my portfolio for so long.
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Shouldn’t money printing cause inflation?
Between 2008 and 2013 money supply grew at 33%, while inflation remained persistently low (below 2 percent).


Because inflation is also affected by the rate at which money changes hands in the economy (velocity), which has been falling just as fast:
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Very interesting seeing the trend of the velocity of money... what possible conclusions could we draw from this?

Perhaps individuals are saving more/spending less or their incomes? Or is it just because the supply of money has grown MUCH faster than GDP?
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Help Commonstock Grow on TikTok
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Prediction: Ethereum at $2,300
The Ethereum Merge should happen approximately one month from now. It sits at $1,891 as I write this.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that $ETH.X threads the macro environment needle and sees a meaningful run-up leading up to the merge.
This could go sideways if:
  • The market begins to believe that the Fed will raise interest rates faster than expected later in the year.
  • If technical trouble arises
But this could go great if:
  • The removal of structural sell pressure surprises short term traders and they realize all the lines in their charts need to be re-drawn because of new flow dynamics.
  • Institutions realize that there is a 5.2% real yield (not nominal) to be had by staking $ETH.X . The highest real yield in crypto.
What am I missing?
Fill in the blank:
Nathan’s prediction will be wrong if ___
Validated to: No
$$ETH.X$$ will be over$ $2,300.00$/share on 9/16/2022$
62 Votes