Getting my thoughts together to publish at the start of the year was pretty brutal. Last two years, I got pretty lucky with trades like Novavx, NIO, and AMC. Then at the beginning of 2021, I flipped most of my stock portfolio into Crypto, specifically Ethereum and now Solana (my second biggest position after Eth2). This year aims to understand a macro environment better and build a portfolio that doesn't swing from growth stocks to Crypto without a clear strategy. Commonstock is an excellent place for me to write my thinking, get feedback and hold myself accountable. I hope you enjoy and please comment if you have thoughts!

I can explain why these are my crypto holdings in a later post.

Crypto - 55%

Cash - 30%

Brokerage - 10%

Options 5%

My Roth account has a lot of tech stocks; the plan is to keep buying my long-term bets here, not to try to trade in this account for the time being.

Okay, so this is how I am starting the quarter. How will I react to different market conditions?

I'll plan to do monthly memos as the year goes on and track my progress. I will also challenge myself to improve my technical analysis to trade crypto this year. I look forward to hearing from the Commonstock community about my strategy. 🚀

Wow. The past two weeks of WSB dominating the market news with $GME, then jumping to $AMC, and now I believe $DOGE? All I can say is my 6-12 month investment in $AMC got swept up, and I had, as most would call it, paper hands. I had done my research; I knew that AMC's YoY revenue was down 90%, and it seemed like a perfect company to rebound in a post covid restricted world. Two quick lessons I got from evaluating this trade is to look at the rest of the market.

Neither of these would force me to go 180 on a decision, but it is critical info before putting money in. (I should have been doing this before.)

So let's dive into my buying history with $AMC, not in shares but the percentage of total volume over the last three months

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1.00+ 0.262 + 0.772+ 0.225 +0.45 ~ Average cost of $2.71

The short interest/RSI would have come in handy before that first purchase or even the one on 12/15. I could have timed my entry better, but my price target was $7, so I was still expecting a near 2x return. However, I believed in the play, so as the price kept falling, I kept buying until 1/05 where I doubled my original position at $2.00. I was a believer in the strategy.

On January 21, I saw the price spike in the $3.23 range and sold 20% of my investment.

Then madness, with $GME still mooning and murmurs around AMC in the same channels. I got weak hands; I was nervous about a severe correction wiping out AMC. I forgot about my strategy my price target and sold in the $4.33 -$4.72 range. This should be a win because I had a ~70% return on the initial investment. Here are the reasons why it wasn't.

So what did I do for the rest of the week after getting over the FOMO. I bought into positions that I have a long price target for $FB, $SQ, $WMT, $CLOV, and $DIS. I repositioned many of my smaller investments that I don't have the same belief for growth or positions like $SPCE that I wanted to take a step back and evaluate at the current price.

$NIO has been in my portfolio since shortly after the IPO; as a college student, it was my way of buying into the $TSLA hype at a lower cost. After watching my NIO position grow over 2000%, mostly all in the past eight months, I have decided to exit my stake entirely. Here’s why.

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Following the news of the $NVDA partnership, NIO saw another bump. However, fundamentally how much more do I see NIOs value rising over the next 2-3 years? Would I rather be in another emerging stock like $SQ or a covid devasted company like $AMC (Memo coming soon 😉)? The answer is yes.

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My sell strategy was to start selling NIO when it hit $10 that was ~400% return. I continued to sell up to $50 as late as last week.

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This may be my ego talking, and I am aware of it, but there are market opportunities everywhere. Maybe not 2000% growth picks, but I don’t believe $NIO has another 2000% run and holding on to grab a screenshot at 3000% is a terrible reason not to sell.

Here’s a screenshot of my remaining position of NIO in my portfolio that I’ll be selling off today.



At the start of last year I didn’t really know what a SPAC was, and now it seems that every one is a money printing machine. Yet, Chamath’s approach to SPACs identifying industries that can be modernized $OPEN and $IPOC (soon to be $CLOV) I find myself following Chamath as if he has the Midas touch.

Unfortunately, I missed out on the 60% run for $IPOE following the news of their acquisition of SoFi, so I’m officially buying into $IPOF and dedicating a portion of my portfolio as Chamath’s bets.

Until an acquisition announcement I don’t see my combined social capital position being greater than 5-10% of my portfolio, but not investing along Chamath after this track record seems like you are missing out on a winning ticket.

@gannon how much of your portfolio is following social capital?

I first dipped my toe in crypto during the last bull run in 2017/18, and to say I got burned would be an understatement. This most recent run has been awesome, but if I learned anything you need to lock in profits on something as volatile as $BTC.X.

I only sold about 5% of my total position and I am debating putting in more sell orders depending on the price movement over the next few days. This was a long overdue sell for me because BTC has begun to almost reach a 1/3 of my overall portfolio value.

Nevertheless I plan on always holding some $BTC.X $LTC.X and $ETH.X in my portfolio and see you at 100k 🚀🚀🚀

In the morning of January 6th, with the appearance that the Senate will be split 50:50, the immediate buy that I see is diving further into marijuana stocks.

Yes, could we look at the industry and manufacturing expecting a Biden agenda to tackle infrastructure or climate change. However, a more explicit agenda item that we saw a previous spike on election night is in the marijuana market following victories on the ballot in individual states. With the potential of federal decriminalization, this is a great opportunity to buy in or add more to my portfolio.

I already own $ACB and placed purchase orders for $SSPK and will be cautiously watching until I see a confirmed victory for Ossoff.

What's next is to see the 100-day agenda that President-elect Biden comes out with. If we don't see any mention of decriminalization and the stock price responds negatively, Ill buy more to lower my cost in $SSPK (maybe $ACB as well, depending on the price change).

My expectation would be any legislation for decriminalization would fall down the priority list compared to reversing Trump's family separation policy and distributing the covid-19 vaccine.

Looking at Biden's own website to see his plan around federal decriminalization and with a democratic majority in both houses of Congress, it's not as much of a matter of if but when.