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Five Below: "Nothing But Upside"?

From today's update:

"The recent results at Five Below present some questions, particularly relative to the FY25 financial targets that management set in early 2022: (1) FY25 revenues of ~$5.7 billion, ~60% higher than the ~$3.5 billion expected in FY23e; (2) FY25 EPS of ~$10 per share (“more than double EPS” from $5.0 in 2021), ~85% higher than the ~$5.4 per share expected in FY23e; (3) FY25 EBIT margins of ~14%, ~300 basis points above 2023e; and (4) ~2,200 stores by yearend FY25, which implies an additional 650 (cumulative) net new units in 2024 and 2025 (that will require a pace of annual unit growth that is ~2x higher than what FIVE reported over the past five years)... I’d argue Mr. Market is expressing some doubts on the near term “Triple-Double” targets; is that a fair assessment based on today’s trajectory (an unrealistic goal), or is it a compelling opportunity for investors?"

thescienceofhitting.com
Five Below: "Nothing But Upside"?
Monday’s post focused on Dollar General, which is currently facing significant business headwinds. Today’s discussion will focus on another retailer with some lingering questions about its near term financial trajectory: Five Below. While FIVE’s issues appear much less severe than what’s come up at DG, consider that

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