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3 Reasons Small-Cap Stocks Are Heading a Lot Higher

The monster rotation is gaining steam.

This is very healthy action that’s long overdue.

Here are 3 reasons small-cap stocks are heading a lot higher.

Yesterday’s 3.65% selloff in the NASDAQ 100 was the worst since 2022. All major indices got clobbered, but mega-cap Tech in particular felt the brunt of the latest market-cap reshuffle.

While some may point to earnings or economic worries as the culprit, the downshift is really a function of supply and demand mechanics.

Large underperformance by small-caps and the average stock, caused positioning to reach extremes – where a handful of mega-cap equities attracted the lions-share of investor capital.

This over-allocation to a handful of market heavyweights, set the stage for a monster reversion trade for the ages…effectively one huge catchup trade was ignited.

Last week, I called it Wall Street’s trade of the year.

While a lot of damage has occurred in the market thus far, and some tech names are starting to get interesting, I see small-caps as a top bet in the coming months and longer.

Today we’ll begin by assessing the current state of the market. Then we’ll dive into 2 evidence-rich studies that signal small-cap leadership has plenty of room to run.

3 Reasons Small-Cap Stocks Are Heading a Lot Higher

Markets are moving fast. On a 3-month basis, small-caps are the best performing equity class.

As you can see below, the Russell 2000 has ripped 11.2%, easily beating the NASDAQ’s gain of 9.41% and the S&P 500’s lift of 7.87%.

Reason number 1 to keep a healthy allocation to small-caps comes down to their new leadership position:

Just a month ago, if you’d uttered an overweight allocation to small-caps, you’d have been greeted with flying tomatoes.

But as we learn time and time again with markets, money rarely leaves equities…it simply rotates.

Investors hop from one area to the other when they believe a better opportunity exists elsewhere.

Below shows how violent the pendulum swings. The relative performance of the Russell 2000 ETF ($IWM) and the NASDAQ 100 ETF ($QQQ) is eye-catching.

When the blue line surges higher, it indicates investors are selling mega-cap tech to fund long bets on small-caps:

This shifting landscape is partly a function of interest rates. Just 2 short months ago, we gave 6 big reasons to own small-cap stocks.

In that non-consensus piece, we showed how small-caps perform best when interest rates fall.

Looking back at an image from that post, you’ll note how the S&P Small Cap 600 has an inverse relationship with the 10Y Treasury yield.

When rates dip, small-caps rip:

Reason number 2 to bet big on small-caps, boils down to the fact that the Fed is nearing its first rate cut. The June CPI reports effectively clinched a September ease.

As of this morning, odds of a 25bps cut stand at 80% for the September meeting…odds of a 50bps cut have now climbed to 18.7%.

This is critical when you marry this information with the fact that the US economy is still humming along…avoiding a recession.

This is one of my favorite charts for today.

Since mid-1995, when the Fed first cuts rates and the economy isn’t in recession, and doesn’t fall into one a year later, small-caps absolutely soar!

A month after the first rate cut, the S&P Small Cap 600 gains 4.8%.

3-months later, small-caps see a 10.6% gain.

12-months post the first rate cut; small-caps surge 19.3%

Hopefully you’re beginning to see this rotation for what it truly is…a big fat opportunity!

But there’s one other signal that favors a big bet on small-caps. And it comes down to recent rare thrust signal.

Last Tuesday, July 16th, the Russell 2000 did something extraordinary. The index gained 3.5%.

On the surface, that may seem like an overbought signal. Afterall, who wants to buy something after such a powerful up-move?

Turns out that since 1984, a gain of 3.5% or more for the Russell 2000 has only occurred 107 times. That shakes out to roughly 2.5 times a year.

Reason number 3 to beef up your small-cap allocation comes down to the market-beating gains that follow a daily gain of 3.5% or more.

If you aren’t ready to scoop up small-caps just yet, this next study should change your mind.

Here’s what happens after the Russell 2000 gains at least 3.5% in a day:

3-months later RUT climbs 4.3%
12-months later the Russell surges 27.7%
Be bold with a 24-month hold and you’re staring at a historical average rally of 40.9%

Ladies and gentlemen, I’ve just presented 3 reasons small-cap stocks are heading a lot higher.

Recent leadership, a falling rate regime, and a power thrust signal tell you all you need to know.

Couple those data-driven reasons with the fact that 85% of all inflows in our data since the June CPI are in companies of $50B or less market-cap, and you’ve got the tailwind pointing due North for small-caps:

This means new leadership is here. Financials, Industrials, Discretionary, and REITs are the money-flow magnets.

And just this week we sent out a MAP PRO update highlighting 3 top-ranking stocks in each of these sectors to lean into as this rotation keeps gaining steam.

Don’t listen to the fear-driven media. You’ll miss what’s actually happening: a renaissance in prior unloved areas.

If you’re not excited about tomorrow’s opportunity – it might be time for you to consult a map!

Let’s wrap up.

Here’s the bottom line: Major indices are under pressure. That’s giving way to new leadership under the surface.

A powerful rotation has taken Wall Street by storm…and it’s got further to go.

Not only are small-caps the best performing equity class the last 3 months, they’re also poised to surge once the Fed starts easing policy in September.

Couple this with a 3.5% rare ultra thrust last Tuesday, and you’re staring at a big fat upside signal in smaller unloved stocks.

Our data points to healthy institutional buying in Financials, REITs, Industrials, and select Discretionary names.

As I like to say, tomorrow’s leaders can be found today…just follow the money.

The small-cap bells are ringing loud and clear.

It’s true…sometimes Christmas comes in July.

If you’re a professional, RIA, or serious investor, now is the opportune time to up your research with unique money-flow insights. Get a MAP PRO subscription and see the actual stocks under heavy institutional accumulation.

Have a great week!

MAPsignals

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MAPsignals’ volume and price analysis tools enable investors to identify unusually large trading activities around individual stocks and ETFs. This allows traders and investors to move beyond sentiment with a more precise, predictive, and measured data analysis tool that MAPs the signals being delivered by the market’s biggest players.MAPsignals capabilities include: Read more »

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@mapsignals4d

Election season is finally here.

The mudslinging and policy curve balls are already ramping up!

With all the noise (and ammo) swirling around, let’s run through our top 2 sectors to own this election season.

On July 8, we published our initial election piece.

We showed you why it’s a mistake to sell stocks ahead of elections. You should aggressively buy into the typical pre-election drawdown we normally see in September and October of election years.

Today we’re digging deeper. We’ll show you history’s two best election cycle sector winners. Not only that, both areas have great fundamentals and are big money favorites right now.

In typical fashion, we’ll offer 3 evidence-rich reasons to overweight our 2 top sector picks heading into November.

Top 2 Sectors to Own this Election Season

Let’s start by analyzing election cycle sector performance.

With 2024 more than half over, focusing solely on election year performance has limited value.

Instead, we should focus on a two-year span – the presidential election year and the first year of the new presidential term.

When you slice up average historical returns by sector, 2 areas jump out.

Financials lead the pack, averaging 11.7% and 23% total returns in election years and the first year of new presidential terms, respectively. That works out to an election cycle average of 17.3%!

Tech also does great, averaging 7.9% and 23.6% total returns in election years and the first year of the presidential cycle, respectively. That works out to an impressive election cycle average of 15.8%.

That’s upside worth catching. Remember, the S&P 500’s average annual total return since 1926 is only 12.2%.

And in the first year of the presidential cycle, the S&P only averages 10% returns including dividends, making financials’ and tech’s 23% post-election year average returns even more compelling:

Strong election cycle performance isn’t the only reason to like financials and big tech right now.

Both boast strong fundamentals with double-digit consensus earnings growth forecast over the coming 12 months (table).

The PE to growth ratio divides a sector’s consensus EPS growth rate into its 12-month forward price/earnings (PE) ratio.

PEG ratios are more useful than PE ratios alone because they adjust a sector’s valuation for its profit growth.

The PEG ratio allows sharp investors to tease out signal from noise when analyzing sector data.

For example, a high PE ratio may be fine if there’s strong earnings growth to support it. The Mag 7 are great examples of this. Their PE ratios are high, but their PEG ratios aren’t because they adjust for tech’s monster EPS growth.

The S&P 500’s PE to growth (PEG) ratio is 1.7 (table). Ratios under 1.5 are very compelling while readings over 2.5 suggest a sector is richly valued relative to its growth, offering limited tactical upside.

The PEG ratios of the financials, technology and communications services (home to Meta, Google & Netflix) sectors are only 1.3, 1.5 and 1.1, respectively (table).

They’re the lowest in the S&P because all 3 sectors’ PEG ratios are depressed by strong profit growth.

Now that we’ve covered the seasonal and valuation metrics, making Financials and Technology our top picks, let’s make sure these jive with recent action.

Money Flows Signal Healthy Appetite for Financial and Technology Stocks

Earnings, valuations and historical tendencies are important to understand. Couple those with recent institutional sponsorship and you’ve got a powerful recipe for upside.

Financials and big tech are in pole position YTD partly due to healthy inflows. Note how Technology, Communications Services, and Financials are the top performing sectors in the S&P 500 YTD (chart) with 33.4%, 25.9%, & 15.5% gains respectively:

When you compare those to MAPsignals’ sector rankings, you see a similar flavor with Financials and Tech on top:

Let’s dig a little deeper into the latest action in both sectors.

Geopolitical worries have sparked heavy profit taking in big tech recently. Chip stocks have been hit hardest.

Semiconductors are the new oil. Chips power AI. The global chip supply chain runs through the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ($TSM).

$TSM makes all the leading edge 3 nanometer chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm and many others.

Both parties’ election rhetoric potentially threatens access to Taiwan’s chips, albeit in different ways.

Neither Biden’s newly proposed chip export controls nor Trump’s bluster about making Taiwan pay for US protection is likely to be as bad as feared.

This is your chance to buy the world’s best companies on sale. The big money sure will!

Turning to financials, it’s the best performing sector YTD outside of tech. The short-term rotation out of tech is only adding fuel to the fire. Stay overweight.

Let’s wrap up.

Here’s the Bottom Line: The market rally is finally broadening out as disinflation pushes interest rates ever lower in anticipation of a September Fed rate cut.

Meanwhile, the economy continues to hold up well, defying the many skeptics.

This goldilocks scenario is driving a rotation into cyclicals. Financials are leading the charge as tech sees overdue profit taking after its monster run.

Stay overweight financials and look to buy the dip in big tech.

Neither Biden’s new chip export restrictions nor Trump’s Taiwan bluster is likely to be as bad as feared.

Election cycle seasonality, superior fundamentals and big money buying mean this barbell sector strategy should continue to work over the next 12 months.

So, tune out the election noise and buy into the pre-vote volatility, you’ll be glad you did!

There are plenty of new leaders popping up in our data the past week.

If you want to find specific large-, mid-, and small-cap financials and tech names ramping with continual institutional support, get started with a MAPsignals PRO subscription.

It’ll get you access to our portal that updates every morning, showcasing the exact tickers being bought and their scores.

Our prized Top 20 list is full of cyclical market beaters. This is the report that found every outlier stock in our research.

There are plenty of quality tech and financial names to get long as election volatility ramps up.

Use a MAP to find them!

Invest well,

Alec Young

MAPsignals

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@mapsignalsJuly 11

3 Best Semiconductor Stocks to Buy for 2024

To me, great research is defined by what you say when times are tough…not when the gettin’ is good.

Let’s rewind the tape back to October when the Big Money Index (BMI) alerted an incredible setup.

Not only did we pound the table that a breath-taking rally was coming, we have the equity performance to back it up.

Here are the 3 best semiconductor stocks for 2024.

In rare moments, the market offers investors an opportunity for the ages. Deeply oversold periods continue to preface crowd-stunning rallies.

Circling back to the literal COVID lows on March 19th, 2020 – our Big Money Index reached the green zone and we had no choice but to send the marines.

Then in late October of last year a similar setup emerged. The BMI fell to unprecedented levels that only meant the bear-killer signal was finally here.

Today we’re going to fill in the powerful study we sent back in early November, that said, the time is NOW to buy.

And more importantly, we are going to dive into 3 semiconductor stocks that institutional investors were scrambling to buy in the market depths…proving yet again that professionals get ahead of the biggest market moves.

The Biggest Oversold Opportunity in Years

At MAPsignals, we love finding outlier stocks. Those are the ones that tower over all others seemingly year after year.

Even more fun is uncovering them during a washed-out market environment. October 2023 was exactly that instance.

On October 25th, our Big Money Index dropped below 19, an ultra-rare oversold reading:

Now, it’s important to remind you of the prevailing positioning of the crowd. Most investors had thrown in the towel. Doom-loopers were all over the mainstream media.

But we took the other side of that bet. We saw an undefeated signal firing.

When we looked back through our data, we learned that every time the BMI fell below 19 (since 2016), the market was never lower.

Below is an updated screen shot of that study, with what happened next circled in green:

During this post we made the following statement:

◉ 2 bear-killer signals are here.

This is when MAPsignals data-driven process shines.

New leading stocks are set to emerge…don’t be a sad bear and miss what’s coming.

By the time the media is shaking the bullish pompoms, the BMI will be well off the lows. The stock chase will be well underway.

We’re staring at one of the best setups seen in years. ◉

And it was indeed one of the best setups in years. We were able to easily spot the 3 best semiconductor stocks for 2024.

3 Best Semiconductor Stocks to Buy for 2024

Working on Wall Street taught me life lessons I’ll never forget.

First, focus on companies with the best forward earnings growth. Second, make sure they have institutional sponsorship.

Marrying these 2 ingredients ignites inflection points. This is the hallmark differentiator of our equity research.

Every single week, we list our Top 20 ranked stocks getting scooped by institutions. When your process looks at thousands of equities, and zeros in on 20, we’re left with outliers…the tails.

The top performing stock in the S&P 500 this year is Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) gaining 216% YTD.

On January 16th, we showcased this server and storage stock due to the massive accelerating earnings picture. Net income surged from $285MM in 2022 to $640MM in 2023.

Estimates now peg 2025’s net income at a staggering $2.16B. When profits are exploding you can bet that the best on Wall Street will be participating…and they were!

Here you can see Super Micro Computer making our rare Top 20 list in January and beyond. We specifically called this name out the first instance circled below:

If you think this is impressive, it only gets better from here.

The 2nd best performing stock in the S&P 500 is NVIDIA ($NVDA) with a mind-numbing 172% jolt in 2024. When it comes to ultra-fast chips, NVIDIA stands alone.

The same process that highlighted $SMCI is how we lasered in on NVIDIA.

Institutional investors aren’t going to miss the biggest earnings story. With NVIDIA’s net income ballooning from $4.3B in 2023 to $29.7B in 2024, the stock was easily on the radar of the Big Money.

With net income expectations sitting at $86B for 2026…it’s no wonder this name remains heavily under accumulation.

The circle below shows when we specifically called out NVIDIA as a top buy in January:

Now let’s keep going. $SMCI and $NVDA may seem like household names to you by now. The media has covered them extensively after the record-breaking rally.

MAPsignals is all about finding stocks BEFORE the crowd is aware.

The number 3 best semiconductor stock for 2024 is under-the-radar Israeli firm Camtek ($CAMT).

The inspection & metrology equipment firm has the outlier ingredients we look for: massive institutional buying alongside accelerating earnings.

In 2023, Camtek’s net income stood at a healthy $78.6MM. With estimates pegging profits to climb to $137.4MM in 2026…it’s no secret that Big Money players swooped in well ahead of the inflection point.

Here we can see the same stairway to heaven setup we saw with $SMCI and $NVDA. We specifically called out this name to subscribers in October (circled). As they like to say, the rest is history:

And before you think we’re cherry-picking, from October – May we showcase 2 stocks every single week on this report. Hypothetically held through yesterday, those 70 discrete names have an average gain of 27.05%…had you just bought the S&P 500 in similar fashion the gains stood at 17.03%.

The popular narrative on Wall Street right now is that stock picking is dead.

We know that isn’t true…and we believe there’s so much more to go.

There are a lot of under-the-radar stocks making monster moves.

You just need a MAP to spot them!

Here’s the bottom line: Sometimes you need to look backwards to see the future. While most research shops were doom in gloom last October, we saw one of the best stock opportunities in years.

Semiconductors were heavily bought coming out of the bear market and $SMCI, $NVDA, and $CAMT showed some of the best earnings growth pictures around.

Fast forward today, and it’s no surprise why those names were on the buy list of the Big Money.

We not only see semiconductors thriving in 2024 and beyond, but once rates fall later this year, the bonanza will only keep going.

If you want to beat the market and be equipped with outlier stocks NOT on the lip of the media, follow the institutional footprints with MAPsignals!

If you’re a serious investor, professional, or Registered Investment Advisor (RIA), now’s a wonderful time to become a MAP PRO subscriber.

News-Flow will only tell you what happened yesterday.

Money-Flow will tell you what’s coming tomorrow!

LASTLY, join us live at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas as we dive into our 2024 Election Year Playbook.

Have a great week!

Bodner, Jason

Jason Bodner is an accomplished investor and stock researcher reaching tens of thousands of people each week. He is co-founder of Mapsignals.com, a quantitative equity research firm focusing on unusual institutional trading. Mr. Bodner contributes to Navellier & Associates weekly writing Sector Spotlight and several white papers. He is also the editor of Quantum Edge for TradeSmith. Previously, Mr. Bodner served as director of european equity derivatives for Cantor Fitzgerald Europe in London, then moved to the role of head of equity derivatives North America for the same company in New York. He also served as S.V.P. equity derivatives for Jefferies, LLC.

MAPsignals

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@mapsignalsJuly 8

Ultimate 2024 Election Year Playbook

Election season is finally here.

Let the mudslinging begin!

Here’s your ultimate 2024 election year playbook.

Let’s face it, after June’s presidential debate, nerves are running high heading into November.

That’s perfectly normal.

Presidential candidates tend to highlight society’s biggest problems and their campaigns reinforce those negative narratives in the media.

It’s no wonder investors get spooked and move to the sidelines.

But don’t make that mistake.

Today we’re going to set the record straight by not only reviewing history…but, also providing a time-tested tactical strategy to help you profit heading into the vote and beyond.

Don’t get scared, get prepared!

Ultimate 2024 Election Year Playbook

Investors tend to over extrapolate how much politicians will impact what matters most to stocks – earnings and interest rates.

A recent Capital Group study found investors overwhelmingly favor cash over stocks in election years. Since 1993, they’ve invested 4X more in money markets than in equity funds and ETFs in election years.

Political jitters have cost investors bigtime.

Check out stock market performance in each year of the four-year presidential cycle.

Since 1928, the third year of a president’s term has been by far the best for stocks with the S&P 500 up an impressive 18% (chart).

The election year comes in second at a healthy 10.7% and the first year of a president’s term is third, up a solid 8%.

Only the second year – the midterm election year – has been consistently weak, eking out a measly 0.6% average advance:

The data is clear. Cashing out of stocks over electoral uncertainty has been a losing investment strategy.

But it could be even more dangerous in 2024.

Since 1979, election years see the S&P 500 average a 2nd half performance of 4.03%. However, when the 1st half is up at least 7% (like 2024’s 14.48% rip), the expected gain doubles to 8.65%:

Up to this point, the evidence points to holding stocks.

Now, if you’re feeling unsettled given a potential switch in the Democratic nominee or a surprise GOP win…we don’t blame you.

That said, it likely doesn’t matter who’s first to 270 electoral votes.

Stocks Don’t Care Which Party Wins the White House

Everyone has their own political preferences. Many strongly support either Democrats or Republicans.

However, when it comes to investing, stocks seem to like both parties. The S&P 500 has done well under both Republican and Democratic presidents (chart).

There isn’t a strong correlation between equity performance and which party controls the White House:

Staying the course isn’t a bad idea.

But there’s more work to do.

We know there are a few different political scenarios that can play out regarding the House and the Senate.

Don’t worry, our ultimate 2024 election playbook has you covered!

Forget Picking Parties, Stocks Do Best with a Split Congress

The clearest trend when analyzing markets under various political scenarios is that equities do best when Congress is split with different parties controlling the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Since 1933, stocks have risen 13.6% under Democrats with a split Congress and a 13.7% under Republicans (chart).

Why?

Probably because investors don’t like uncertainty. Shared political power forces incrementalism, making big policy and legislative surprises less likely.

2023 and the first half of 2024 are cases in point. Stocks have soared with the GOP running the house while Democrats control the senate:

Other performance trends that jump out are a mixed bag with one favoring Republicans and the other Democrats.

When one party controls everything – the White House and Congress – Republicans have overseen much stronger stock markets than Democrats, averaging 12.9% gains vs. only 9% for Democrats.

But when the President has been a Democrat and Republicans have controlled both houses of Congress, stocks have averaged 13% gains, far outpacing the 4.9% returns under Republican Presidents with Democratic controlled congresses.

Here’s the bottom line: stocks have done best when the same party doesn’t control the House of Representatives and the Senate, regardless of which party resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

OK so how can you profit from all of this great election intel?

There are 2 big tactical takeaways:

#1: Resist the urge to sell stocks because of the election.

Markets average big gains in election years, especially when the year starts off as strong as 2024.

They also average solid gains in the first year of new Presidential terms. And history says if Congress stays divided the 2025 outlook is even more bullish.

#2: Buy into any pre-election selling.

History shows many investors just can’t resist dumping stocks ahead of elections.

The S&P 500 Index was born in 1926. In all Presidential election years since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged losses of 0.5% and 0.3% in September and October, respectively (chart).

Here’s the good news. The S&P has rebounded sharply after elections, averaging gains of 1.2% and 1.5% respectively in November and December of all Presidential election years since 1928.

That’s why we say: don’t focus on the outcome of the election, but what happens before.

It’s a safe bet that any pre-election selling will give way to big buying once electoral uncertainty passes.

And this playbook played out perfectly last go round, when we beat the drum on the election trade of 2020.

We showed then how institutions routinely sell stocks before the vote then quickly scoop them up once the winner is decided.

The setup is looking similar today with the Big Money Index (BMI) flirting with lows, with 4 months to go.

Buy the pre-election dip.

Ride the post-election rip.

Let’s wrap up.

Here’s the Bottom Line: We know it’s easy to get spooked by endless pre-election noise.

Presidential candidates tend to highlight society’s biggest problems and their campaigns use social media to hammer home negative narratives.

But investors need to understand that over the long term, earnings growth is what matters.

Stocks average solid gains in election years and in the first year of new Presidential terms. And history says if Congress stays divided, the 2025 outlook can get even more painful for the bears.

Plan for the crowd to dump stocks months before November. Over the past nearly hundred years, the S&P falls .5% in September and .3% in October.

That’ll create a great buying opportunity for the smart money (that’s you). That selloff will ricochet higher through year-end, averaging gains of 1.2% and 1.5% respectively in November and December.

So, tune out election noise and buy into any pre-vote volatility, you’ll be glad you did!

If you want to find specific large-, mid-, and small-cap names ramping with Big Money support, get started with a MAPsignals PRO subscription. It’ll get you access to our portal that updates every morning, showcasing the exact tickers being bought and their scores.

Our prized Top 20 list is full of cyclical market beaters. This is the report that found every winner in our research.

There are plenty of quality names to get long as volatility ramps into the election. Use an election MAP for navigation.

Invest well,

-Alec Young

MAPsignals

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@mapsignalsJuly 3

Keep Betting on Technology Stocks into Yearend

With the 1st half of 2024 in the books, it’s time to focus on the back-half.

There’s a strong signal for one growth area of the market.

Keep betting on Technology stocks into yearend.

The S&P 500 closed out a monster first half, ripping 14.48%. Much of that gain is squarely attributed to the outperformance of mega-cap Tech stocks.

This has been one of our focus areas in 2024.

If you recall, back in January, we made a data-driven case to bet heavily on software and semiconductors due to a long-awaited new high being made in the S&P.

That call didn’t disappoint as the S&P 500 Packaged Software industry has gained 9.91% and the S&P 500 Semiconductors industry has soared a breathtaking 53.56% since that signal.

And we didn’t stop there. Just a month ago, we saw rare capitulation selling in Technology stocks which pointed to a monster reversion trade on the horizon.

We showed how the Technology Select SPDR Fund ($XLK) often soars after forced-selling events. In-line with history, XLK is up over 9% since that datapoint fired.

Not bad! And if you think we’re jumping off the Tech train, think again.

Today, we’re going to review the sector action in the first half. Then, we’ll study why Tech stocks in particular are set to keep climbing into the remainder of the year.

Keep Betting on Technology Stocks into Yearend

Our bullish outlook coming into 2024 was grounded in evidence. Earnings were accelerating and our Big Money Index (BMI) was surging off a rare oversold reading.

That’s a recipe for outsized gains.

Stocks ripped 14.48% through the first 6-months of the year. Most of that outperformance is due to 2 specific areas.

Below details the S&P 500 1st half sector returns. Only 2 groups outperformed the index- Communications Services and Information Technology, with gains of 26.09% and 27.79% respectively:

Given Tech and Comm. Serv’s 41% weight in the S&P, it’s no surprise that wherever they go, the market surely follows.

But as they say: That was then, this is now. Let’s see what history says is potentially in store for the back half of the year.

To study this, I went back and culled all 2nd half sector returns from 2002 – 2023. The top outperforming groups are:

Information Technology with an 8.21% jolt
Industrials with average gains of 6.08%
Materials with a 6.03% lift
Financials and Consumer Discretionary with 5%+ returns

This one piece of evidence clearly says to keep betting on Technology stocks into yearend. This should be enough to wrap up today’s post and call it a day.

BUT there’s more! Let’s take this analysis a step further given today’s high-momentum environment.

Using the same 21 years of data, here’s what happens when you isolate years when the S&P 500 gains at least 10% in the first half…

Now’s the time to give your bearish friends a hug…they’ll need it after reviewing history!

When the S&P 500 gains 10%+ in the first 6-months of the year, here’s how sectors perform in the back-half of the year:

Technology stocks rip 17.04% on average
The Materials sector jumps 13.32%
Discretionary names climb 11.18%
And the Industrial group sports a 10.84% return

Fading a big bull market is never advised. Technology stocks are primed for continual gains in the months ahead.

And to make sure this narrative aligns with our money-flow data, let’s check in on our sector leaderboard.

As a reminder, each day our data ranks thousands of stocks based on 3 important criteria: fundamentals, technicals, and institutional positioning.

Here you can see how our top-ranking areas jive with today’s message. Tech, Financials, Industrials, and Discretionary find themselves in our top 5 groups:

As I say often, don’t follow the news…you’ll just miss the move.

Instead, follow history and where institutional investors are moving their capital. That’s how you find all-star stocks.

The message is simple: Keep betting on technology stocks into yearend.

Here’s the bottom line: We were one of the few bullish research shops coming into 2024. Not only that, but we also made a strong case to own semiconductors and software stocks early on.

That message is only reinforced given the strong performance in the S&P 500 in the first half.

Whenever stocks climb 10% or more through June, Technology stocks climb an impressive 17% in the final 2 quarters of the year!

That means, focus on the highest quality stocks with the best earnings growth and most importantly, have institutional sponsorship.

That’s where MAPsignals unique data lens comes into play.

Our stocks are crushing the market this year…and you can too!

If you’re a serious investor, money manager, or Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) – now’s a wonderful time to add MAPsignals research to your arsenal. Become a MAP PRO subscriber and you’ll get access to our weekly Top 20 report and so much more.

This is the report that found outlier stocks like Super Micro Computer ($SMCI), Arista Networks ($ANET), NVIDIA ($NVDA), e.l.f. Beauty ($ELF) and KLA Corp ($KLAC)…and many more, years ago before they became all-stars.

Follow the Big Money!

Have a great 4th of July holiday!

MAPsignals

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@mapsignalsJune 28

Reasons To Remain Invested Amid Volatility | Election Rebound

Alec Young, our chief investment strategist at @mapsignals, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss reasons to remain invested amid volatility.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/stock-sell-off-into-elections-rebound-after-investment-strategist~2949357

BNN

Stock sell off into elections, rebound after: investment strategist

Alec Young, chief investment strategist at MapSignals, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss reasons to remain invested amid volatility.

MAPsignals

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@mapsignalsJune 27

Big Money Index Plummets to New Lows in 2024

If your stocks aren’t holding up this year, you’re not alone.

Most equities are behaving wildly different than major indices.

The Big Money Index plummets to new lows in 2024.

Last week we discussed how a monster reversion trade is coming. The average stock in the S&P 500 is drastically underperforming the overall cap-weighted index.

That theme has only intensified this past week. The BMI has fallen dramatically, shedding points every single day.

On the surface, that could be unsettling…after all, we’re now at levels last seen in November.

For those keeping score, that’s exactly the moment we made the non-consensus call to prepare for all-time highs in 2024.

Boy did it come! The crowd has been stunned to say the least.

But here’s the even better news. Today’s money flow study signals more exciting gains are on the way.

Before we get to that bear-flogging analysis, let’s take the temperature of the overall market.

Most Stocks in the S&P 500 are Below their 50-Day Moving Average

As the market quietly notches new highs, most stocks are lagging badly.

While the S&P 500 is has clipped a healthy 14.66% return in 2024, the average stock in the index is only up 5.14%.

More to this point, just 24.1% of stocks in the S&P are outperforming the index. Without question, it’s a winner-take-all environment as a handful of equities are holding up the index.

One great way to visualize this drastic dichotomy is to look at the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average.

The S&P 500 is climbing to new all-time highs while nearly 2/3rds of stocks are languishing. As of this morning, only 37% of S&P stocks are above their 50DMA:

To many pundits, this is a cause for concern. But for those that study history, we know that weak market breadth is a positive catalyst for stocks.

Coming into this year, we couldn’t have been more constructive on equities. One of the illustrations we included in our 2024 macro outlook was the fact that narrow leadership is extremely bullish.

Here’s a refresher. Whenever the S&P 500 experiences the lowest quartile breadth reading, 12-months later the index rips 15.4%:

This should make intuitive sense. Whenever the crowd is plowing into stocks left and right, breadth is high, indicating stocks are likely overbought.

On the flipside, when most stocks are shunned, there’s likely value to be found.

Let’s now expand on the current market landscape by looking at what’s going on in the world of institutional trading flows.

Big Money Index Plummets to New Lows in 2024

Volumes reveal the true appetite for stocks. Handling countless institutional orders over my Wall Street career taught me to respect the ultimate power law in markets: supply and demand.

Our Big Money Index (BMI) is the best real-time gauge for institutional demand at the single stock level.

Falling to 42.6%, this is the lowest reading all year. Below, I’ve highlighted prior falling BMI instances the last 2 years:

A falling BMI tells us a couple of things:

First, selling is increasing for the average stock
Second, the number of names getting bought is shrinking

That may sound like a troubling situation…and it could be.

There are no guarantees for the forward trajectory of the market.

That said, being armed with cold-hard data will help with the guesswork.

Turns out, whenever the Big Money Index falls to 43% or lower (like today), the forward returns for the market are well above average.

Not only that, the lower the BMI goes, the stronger the forward returns get. Check out the following chart.

Below plots 3 forward return profiles for the S&P 500 the last 10-years.

In dark blue (the first bucket) we see the average return for the market is upward sloping in all periods on average. The 12-month expected return for SPX is +11%. Not bad.

Contrast that to periods when the BMI is 43 or lower, and you’ll see the 12-month gains jump to 15%.

Finally, to take it a step further, I included forward returns when the BMI reaches the rare oversold reading of 25% or lower.

Low BMI readings are to be cheered…not feared:

This is what the bad news bears miss. Selling in stocks is reaching extreme levels.

As the Big Money Index plummets to new lows in 2024, start building your buy list. Once the BMI starts heading north, the train will have left the station.

The time to act is now.

Focus on the highest quality stocks. Those will be the ones the institutions flock to whenever the tide is ready to turn.

You can find these names on our weekly Top 20 list that spots the rare handful of names under heavy accumulation alongside strong sales and earnings growth.

Let’s wrap up.

Here’s the bottom line: Market breadth is the weakest all year. However that’s a sign that better days are ahead.

Narrow market leadership spells market beating gains a year later. Even better, whenever the BMI falls to levels of 43% or lower, you can expect a big catch up trade to occur.

The old Wall Street adage of buy low and sell high likely had something to do with money flows.

Now you have a MAP to show you the way!

Look, there’s plenty of opportunity out there for your portfolio. If you’re a serious investor, money manager or Registered Investment Advisor (RIA), get started with a MAP PRO subscription.

Let the ultimate power law in markets help your investment strategy.

Money Flows > News Flows

Have a great week!

MAPsignals

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@mapsignalsJune 20

Get Ready for a Monster Reversion Trade for the Ages

The appetite for stocks is off the charts.

…especially mega-cap tech names.

This has caused market breadth readings to plummet.

But don’t fret because now’s the time to get ready for a monster reversion trade for the Ages.

Let’s face it, if you’re not holding the handful of AI-fueled growth names right now, odds are your portfolio is underperforming.

The good news is that we’ve been all over this trade. Not only did we make the data-driven case that a major ultra-bullish signal is approaching just 6 weeks ago…we also teed up an evidence-rich study suggesting the NASDAQ was ready to explode.

But today I bring better news, this time for the rest of the market.

Turns out, one popular breadth reading is signaling a significant gap between the returns of cap-weighted stocks relative to the rest of the market.

It’s a brow-raising development that rarely comes along.

But here’s the hard-hitting truth: Those unpopular laggards will have their day again…and based on history, it’ll be here a lot sooner than the crowd realizes.

There’s an epic setup for stock pickers coming soon.

Before we get to that powerful study, let’s check in on the overall state of the market.

The Average Stock is Underperforming Major Indices

Money flows reveal the true health of the stock market. When a majority of equities are participating in a rally, breadth is said to be strong.

That is not the case recently as a handful of names are dragging major indexes higher.

Case in point, our trusty Big Money Index (BMI) reveals this truth beautifully. If the BMI is falling, it indicates that the total number of stocks getting sold is higher than the number getting bought.

Said another way, the average stock is falling behind:

Now, we know this because at MAPsignals we can easily see the names getting accumulated each day.

As stated last week, massive money has been flowing into mega-cap semiconductors for months.

But there are other ways to visualize the dichotomy in equities. One look at a few different baskets of the S&P 500, points to the massive underperformance of the average stock.

Below we can see how the top 50 stocks in the S&P 500 (XLG ETF) have gained +22.53% in 2024.

That easily beats the S&P 500’s (SPY ETF) jump of +15.76% and dramatically crushes the S&P 500 equal weight basket (RSP ETF) YTD performance of +5.17%:

But there’s one other way to note the major market dichotomy.

When you look at a ratio chart of the S&P 500 equal weight basket (RSP ETF) relative to the S&P 500 (SPY ETF), you’ll see that we’re sitting at the weakest breadth point since 2008.

Currently the RSP/SPY ratio sits at nearly 30%.

If you want to rattle the bear cages, show them this free-falling chart:

This ratio chart has gotten a lot of traction in the media lately as pundits proclaim this relative weakness is uber bearish for markets.

Afterall, the last few times we approached these levels was ugly periods for markets: 30% ratio reading in the depths of 2008 and 2009, a 32% reading during the COVID crash of 2020, and the 30% readings found today.

I’ll be honest, I almost fell for the bait.

That is, until I studied history. And she had one message that you need to hear: Get ready for a monster reversion trade for the ages!

Get Ready for a Monster Reversion Trade for the Ages

MAPsignals is all about bringing you evidence-based research that flies in the face of the talking-heads in the media.

Before you bailout on your underperforming stocks, have a look at the following pieces of evidence suggesting you should sit tight.

And if you’re bold, start buying the beaten down dogs…

I went back and singled out all days when the RSP/SPY ratio fell below 32%. Basically, I needed to understand what we should expect for stocks going forward.

As a reminder, the 32% threshold amounts to 201 trading dates that triggered during the Global Financial Crisis lows, the COVID crash lows, and the relative lows seen recently.

Here’s what happened next. The S&P 500 (SPY ETF) did just fine. But the S&P 500 Equal Weight Fund (RSP ETF) was spectacular.

When the RSP/SPY ratio fell to 32% or lower since 2007:

6-months later the S&P 500 jumped 13% while the S&P 500 Equal Weight basket soared 24.1%
12-months later clocked gains of 29.1% for SPY and 47.1% gains for RSP
24-months after saw SPY jump 48.6% and RSP catapult 78%

This is why you need to get ready for a monster reversion trade for the ages.

Normally, I’d stop here and call it a day. BUT there’s more to this story.

It gets better…a lot better.

When you single out RSP/SPY ratio readings of 31% or lower, the opportunity only increases.

Folks, magnitude is important!

Here is the chart of the week that you should share with your friends!

Whenever the RSP/SPY ratio falls to 31% or lower since 2007:

3-months later RSP rips 7.4%, easily outpacing SPY’s 1.6% pump
6-months later RSP jumps 29.7% vs SPY’s 16% performance
12-months out, RSP jolts 57% compared to SPY’s 35.8% rally
24-months later, RSP is up an incredible 92% – crushing SPY’s 57.6% gains

Keep in mind a startling fact. RSP/SPY ratio readings of 31% or lower have resulted in 100%-win rates in both the S&P 500 and S&P 500 Equal Weight indexes a year and 2 years later.

This signal reinforces what we said last week: Now’s the best time in history to a be stock picker.

Get ready for a monster reversion trade for the ages…

Using a MAP will help you spot tomorrow’s biggest opportunity.

Here’s the bottom line: The stock market rally can keep going. Better yet, all stocks should begin to participate in the coming months…and years.

Market breadth readings indicate an undeniable truth: most stocks in the S&P 500 are vastly underperforming a handful of mega-cap behemoths.

Since 2007, this trend has rarely lasted long. More importantly, the setup is incredibly bullish for the under-loved stocks in the market.

If history is a guide, we will be looking at a monster reversion trade where the equal weighted S&P will play catch up to the market bellwethers.

Once this powerful trend begins, you can bet that MAPsignals unique data will be all over it…highlighting tomorrow’s winners today.

Just like we did with Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) 2 years ago…and NVIDIA (NVDA) back in 2015…and countless others.

If you’re looking for cutting-edge hedge fund quality research, get started with a MAP PRO subscription and see for yourself the power of institutional money flows.

Don’t weight for the media to blow the bull whistle…you’ll miss the train.

Money flows will signal the green light.

There’s never been a better time in history to own a stock market MAP!

MAPsignals

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@mapsignalsJune 17

MACRO: Utility Stocks’ Power Surge Risks a Short Circuit

It’s not often that the sleepy utilities sector outperforms sharply.

In amazing fashion, Utes have been one of the hottest groups the last 3 months.

Unfortunately, history says Utility Stocks’ power surge risks a short circuit.

Today we’re going to review hard-hitting evidence of why now is a pristine time to reallocate those utility gains into other areas of the market.

The power grid is overheating.

Utility Stocks’ Power Surge Risks a Short Circuit

Utility stocks have been on an epic AI-fueled run in anticipation of a secular increase in electricity demand. The sector is up 10.1% over the last 3 months, easily beating the S&P 500’s 5.9% total return (chart).

The AI rally has been breathtaking.

In the technology and communications services sectors, the big gains are justified. After all, the AI build-out is helping drive market-leading, high-teens earnings growth for big tech.

But it’s going to take time for AI to drive big fundamental improvements elsewhere, especially in the heavily regulated utilities sector.

Electricity demand may be rising, but so are the costs of upgrading our rickety power grid. And the government gets to sign off on regulated utilities’ pricing.

They can’t just charge whatever the market will bear like companies in other sectors.

Here’s the takeaway: The bullish consensus on utilities is too simplistic. Assuming AI drives increased demand for power, that won’t necessarily translate into surging profits for regulated utility providers.

At MAPsignals, you know we follow the data.

History is another reason to ring the register on the utilities rally.

Since 1962, quick bursts of 3-month utility sector outperformance over the S&P 500 have been followed by 2.5% of relative underperformance over the following 12 months.

In other words, don’t expect the leadership to keep up with the prior pace. The market tends to pull the plug on this non-cyclical area after these monster moves.

Check out this chart:

Step one is knowing what to expect going forward.

Step two is knowing where else to deploy those dollars.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

OK so it’s time to take profits in utilities. Here’s what to do with the proceeds.

First off, keep it simple. Buy the S&P 500.

It turns out the S&P 500 does best following top quartile, 3-month utilities sector outperformance like we’re seeing now. The S&P 500 averages a healthy 9.5% 12-month gain following big rips in utilities.

Check out this next chart:

Clearly the market keeps powering higher after these utility spurts.

Don’t cash out of stocks.

But let’s dig deeper to see which sectors look best.

We’ve been fans of cyclicals and tech for a while and we’re sticking with that call. That’s where institutional buying is the strongest.

Check out MAPsignals’ latest equally weighted sector rankings that cut across large-, mid- and small-cap stocks. Tech and cyclicals including energy, industrials, financials and materials round out our top 5:

These areas have strong tailwinds going forward including: the AI chip buildout, water management & the industrial infrastructure construction themes, and the beneficial economic stimulative effects of a Fed set to cut interest rates soon…and others.

These focus areas are brimming with big money inflows on our weekly Top 20 report, revealing the equity leaders of tomorrow.

Lastly, we sent out additional bearish Utility sector studies to our PRO subscribers a month ago right when the crowd was dazzled by their relentless charge.

Click here to review that research note.

Essentially, we saw extreme buying in the sector. To quote that prescient study from May 10th:

Now, why are we concerned about a pullback in the hottest sector? It comes down to extreme buy levels. The last week has seen a double-digit number of utility stocks get bought. This is rare action.

Below showcases the massive inflows the past week with white circles of prior similar episodes:

This was followed up with the following historical study that is relevant for today’s post.

As a reminder, the last time we saw forced selling in Utilities, we made the non-consensus bet that they would rally hard. Boy did they.

Today’s message points to near-term weakness likely ahead for the utility group. Since 2013, whenever 15 or more utility stocks are bought in a day, the forward returns for $XLU is negative 1 and 3 months later.

Even more interesting is the lackluster average performance the rest of the year post these rare inflow days:

Based on the evidence, utility stocks’ power surge faces a short circuit.

Never fight overbought conditions!

Let’s wrap up.

Here’s the Bottom Line

Utility stocks have been on an epic AI-fueled rip in anticipation of a secular increase in electricity demand.

But it’s going to take time for AI to drive big fundamental improvements in the heavily regulated electric utilities sector. The need to upgrade our rickety power grid will take decades and cost tens of billions of dollars.

History is another reason to ring the register on the utilities rally.

Since 1962, quick bursts of 3-month utility sector outperformance over the S&P have been followed by relative index underperformance over the following 12 months.

Throw in extremely overbought conditions and you’re staring at a much-needed cool down period.

But rotate into the overall market. Even better, roll into tech and cyclical areas like energy, industrials, financials and materials.

Take it further. Single stock picking is where we excel…by simply following big money flows into the highest quality stocks.

Our prized Top 20 list is full of cyclical market beaters. This is the report that found every winner in our research.

There are plenty of ways to deploy those Utilities profits. Use a MAP for navigation.

Invest well,

-Alec Young

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@mapsignalsJune 13

3 Easy Reasons to Buy Semiconductors Hand Over Fist

It’s a wonderful time to be a stock investor.

Not only are markets making all-time highs, select names have incredible multi-year tailwinds.

Many of those reside in the Technology space.

Here are 3 easy reasons to buy semiconductors hand over fist.

A lot has happened the past week:

Apple ($AAPL) knocked the cover off the ball in this year’s WWDC, bringing Apple Intelligence ($AI) to the masses later this year
The May Consumer Price Index ($CPI) came in lower than expected proving that inflation is falling…that’s a trend we expected, signaling this bull market still has legs
And let’s not leave out the mega earnings announcements from Technology stalwarts like Oracle ($ORCL) and last night’s semiconductor behemoth, Broadcom ($AVGO)

With markets and high-quality tech stocks reaching new heights, you may be inclined to think chip companies have gotten ahead of themselves.

We respectfully disagree.

Today we’ll showcase hard-hitting evidence signaling more upside for the chip industry. This mega-trend has years of runway ahead.

3 Easy Reasons to Buy Semiconductors Hand Over Fist

A.I. has absolutely taken the investing world by storm and for good measure.

Day after day we’re greeted with companies blowing past earnings estimates, proving how many Wall Street analysts need to keep pace by raising their estimates.

NVIDIA’s ($NVDA) forward Q2 guide last month pointed to ~$28B in revenue, easily outpacing the analyst community’s $26.62B estimates.

Then last night Broadcom provided a monster report with Q2 sales clocking in at $12.49B…trouncing Wall Street estimates of $12.06B.

Let’s not forget both of these bellwethers announced 10 for 1 stock splits.

When business is booming, there’s only one direction for their share prices to travel: NORTH.

Below shows the remarkable YTD climb of the S&P 500 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Industry. The group has gained a staggering 71% in 2024:

And while I’ve been very vocal on my bullish stance on Technology stocks this year, we’ll keep beating that drum by focusing on one of the biggest multi-year tailwinds in the marketplace today: Semiconductor firms.

Reason number 1 to keep owning semiconductors comes down to accelerating earnings. Stocks follow earnings…it’s that simple.

Not only has EPS been climbing lately, it’s set to boom in the coming years.

Below shows this beautifully. From 2019 to 2023, annual EPS for the S&P 500 Semiconductor / Semiconductor Equipment Industry has risen from $68.11 earnings per share to $103.08.

That’s a 51% increase.

But it gets better…a lot better. Estimates for 2024 are pointing to $145.90 in EPS, representing a 41% surge in earnings.

That’s followed by +32% EPS growth in 2025 and +11% growth in 2026:

Want to make money in stocks? Focus on earnings growth. Let’s keep going.

Reason number 2 to buy semiconductors comes down to history. Jumping off the bull-wagon this summer could sound enticing.

However, history suggests that could be a mistake.

June typically kicks off an illustrious bullish continuation trend through the end of the year. Since 1995, the Semiconductor group has gained an average of 9.2% in the final 7 months of the year.

Given my message last week to buy Technology stocks after rare capitulation, I’ve included the S&P 500 Software & Services June – December double-digit historical returns as well:

The earnings picture is bright. Check.

The technical picture is beaming. Check.

Now what’s left to drive home this opportunity is the money flow picture. Nothing gets me more excited than showcasing outlier stocks under healthy constant institutional support.

Reason number 3 to keep buying all-star semiconductors is due to strong recurring inflows from the institutional community.

This is where MAPsignals’ unique lens into supply and demand unlocks tomorrow’s winning stocks.

Given Broadcom’s explosive earnings report last night, let’s take a look at the stock’s money flow picture the past year.

If you think the trend of owning this powerful player is a new concept…think again. This name has been all over our rare Top 20 list.

The first of 7 Top 20 instances came on June 20th, 2023. Since then, the stock has steadily climbed 75%, helped by strong inflows along the way:

That’s a beautiful chart if you ask me!

But when you zoom out, it gets even clearer. Since 2014 (when we started our business), $AVGO has been one of the most bought names in our research.

In other words, the institutional demand for this incredible company has made it a mainstay in our research.

Here you can see when the company came on our radar at a price of $68.28 on September 8, 2014. That’s a performance of +2120% since the first buy signal:

That repeated blue signal is the stairway to heaven. All outliers we’ve found have charts that look like this.

Outstanding semiconductors are poised to keep climbing simply due to the ultimate power law in markets: Relentless demand for the stock.

That’s what we witnessed handling institutional order flow on Wall Street trading desks many years ago…it’s never been truer than today.

Position for further upside in the semiconductor industry due to the super cycle that’s already here for A.I. and the latest upgrade cycle coming for Apple products.

Let MAPsignals help you spot the names big investors are betting on…hand over fist.

Here’s the bottom line: Technology stocks need to be part of any growth investor’s portfolio. The 3 easy reasons to buy semiconductors hand over fist come down to the bright earnings picture for the industry, technical tailwinds, and of course relentless demand for their shares.

That’s a powerful cocktail to kickstart any portfolio.

There’s a whole host of names getting the Wall Street blessing…many not in the media headlines. Let MAPsignals bring those potential opportunities to you.

If you wait for the media GO-SIGNAL to flash, you’ll miss a lot of the early move. Money flows drive prices…and portfolios!

Use a MAP to see the money movements in real-time.

If you’re serious about finding outlier stocks, or are a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) or money manager, now’s a great time to add our cutting edge research to your process. Get started with MAP PRO subscription and get our weekly Top 20 report in your inbox each week.

Can you invest without a MAP? Maybe…but I can’t recommend it!

Lastly, join me in our upcoming free webinar next month in partnership with Wealth365, discussing how now is shaping up to be one of the best small-cap opportunities.

You won’t want to miss it.

Have a great week!

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