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@kevinnguyen
Kevin Nguyen
I enjoy sipping an espresso while listening to some lofi beats. Background is in advertising
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$ABNB Q4 2020: Qualitative Ramblings
The theme of this particular earnings was centered around hosts.
  • This year they plan to educate world about hosting
  • simplify onboarding projects for hosts
  • Make it easier for guests to fine the perfect stay.

Biggest changes they have seen in travel patterns related to pandemic. People are more likely to travel via car to other local towns, areas. e.g 'Hudson N.Y, Frisco CO, Tuscan AZ. Greater changes in people who look to book based on flexible travel dates given people are working from home.

There is a bright outlook given expected travel planning to rebound toward the summer (contingent on global health crisis). No particular guidance for earnings but revenues should improve QoQ 2021.

Keys
  • Flexibility can be the easiest defensible MOAT and ABNB is building towards that
  • Brand recognition is already there in mature markets. They have a game plan for emerging markets which to increase brand awareness which will halo subsequent conversions.
  • Capitalizing the shift in changing travel patterns by finding additional ways to removing friction to book
  • Building out ABNB Uni to better empower hosts
  • ABNB Payments is most intriguing product given it's down in-house.

$ABNB Q4 2020: Qualitative Ramblings
The theme of this particular earnings was centered around hosts.
  • This year they plan to educate world about hosting
  • simplify onboarding projects for hosts
  • Make it easier for guests to fine the perfect stay.

Biggest changes they have seen in travel patterns related to pandemic. People are more likely to travel via car to other local towns, areas. e.g 'Hudson N.Y, Frisco CO, Tuscan AZ. Greater changes in people who look to book based on flexible travel dates given people are working from home.

There is a bright outlook given expected travel planning to rebound toward the summer (contingent on global health crisis). No particular guidance for earnings but revenues should improve QoQ 2021.

Keys
  • Flexibility can be the easiest defensible MOAT and ABNB is building towards that
  • Brand recognition is already there in mature markets. They have a game plan for emerging markets which to increase brand awareness which will halo subsequent conversions.
  • Capitalizing the shift in changing travel patterns by finding additional ways to removing friction to book
  • Building out ABNB Uni to better empower hosts
  • ABNB Payments is most intriguing product given it's down in-house.

$RDFN Earnings: Q4 2020 Qualitative Ramblings
$.049 Forecasted; $.11 Actual

Interesting things to note
  • Number of customers increased 54%. Company was also holding back demand given caps on REs. Could be higher but they need to balance
  • Forecast for demand won't be
  • Recruitment is key. Agent growth has increased 36%; partner agents 83%
  • Expect agent growth will be driven by digital ads. budget has increased 30%
  • Making offer immediately after a tour to buy a home has increased 15% YoY. Improve success rate by increasing experience per user
  • Changes in DOJ regulation will allow more transparent pricing. Adds price pressure from brokers which adds to Redfin's current moat.

They're going to see similar numbers to 2019 Q1. Growth should be seen more in Q2-Q3. Continued expansion of Redfin in new markets should increase sales as they get more penetration statewide.

$SQ Earnings Q4 2020 Ramblings
Interesting things to note:

  • The respective ecosystems are the key. Cash App + Sellers
  • BTC clean energy initiative; reinvest gains in funds
  • Carbon Free from 230
  • $170M purchase in BTC. Believe BTC has highest probability of being internet currency (bought 50M). Could be the future of internet currency

Sellers;
  • Focus and expansion on sales to improve mid-market/large cohort based on ML learnings.
  • Growth in the omni-channel
  • Strong cohort growth. 5 quarter payback, 3X return YoY.

Cash App;
  • 8% growth from 2020 versus 2019 from sellers growth
  • Growing engagement and monetization in Cash App. 162% YoY.
  • 36M transaction customers 50% YoY
  • Cash Apps boost experiments. Huge upside for personalization and local activation based on locations. Upside for combination for seller/cash app ecosystem. Could these reward boosts be used for future advertising on the advertiser side? Could boost be the precursor to merge the entire Square ecosystem?

Final Thoughts:
Sellers
  • Businesses that have been started in COVID and have been able to maximize operations are likely going to grow with SQ and extend LTV.
  • SQ currently only has 1% penetration in mid/large size markets. Big upside
Cash App
  • More expansion of frictionless experience for increased daily utility
  • Focus is on the customer experience. Still lots to improve

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