Trending Assets
Top investors this month
Trending Assets
Top investors this month
@joryko
Josh Kohn-Lindquist
$15.6M follower assets
Motley Fool Contributor | Joryko - Stocks that improve the world | Dividends500 - Dividend growth outperformance
285 following600 followers
Kenvue Added to (Stays In?) S&P 500
I started writing an article on $KVUE -- the consumer health company spun off from $JNJ -- and saw that it took $AAP's spot in the S&P 500 Index in late August.

This makes sense as it is a $40B+ market capitalization home to some of America's most recognizable brands.

However, it began trading on its own back in May. So now I'm curious.

Once it officially separated from Johnson & Johnson in May, were the S&P 500 tracking ETFs and mutual funds that held J&J -- and received shares of KVUE from the spinoff -- forced to sell their new Kenvue shares in May and now repurchase them in August and September?

Or do they have some leeway in anticipating that it will probably be added back to the S&P 500 later?

It's not a wildly important question, but I'm just thinking out loud.

Generally, stocks receive a boost once it is announced they are joining the S&P 500 -- see $ABNB and $BX -- but Kenvue has just steadily slid down nearly 20% since it started trading.

I'm curious to see if anyone here may know the logistics of these movements or have an idea of how things may turn out.
Will Kenvue beat the market over the next three years?
66%Yes
16%No
16%Who?

6 VotesPoll ended on: 9/14/2023

3 Recently Sold-Off Growth Stocks
I recently touched base on three of my favorite growth stocks that have been sold off a bit over the last month in $FTNT, $DOCN, and $GLBE.


Here is my ongoing thesis on each:

  • Fortinet - Well beyond my networking/security comprehension, but has a slew of industry awards and/or leadership position titles from Gartner and Forrester, which helped me make the "leap of faith" necessary to buy this founder-led business. Founder Xie has a 95% approval rating from his employees, and the company is 34th on Glassdoor's Best Places to Work in 2023, leading me to believe in the long-term viability of the company's success thanks to its strong culture. Massive FCF and profitability, now at just 23x FCF.

  • DigitalOcean - I'm still a huge believer in the niche that DO is trying to fill by working closely with SMBs, as its hyperscale peers completely ignore this group. The Cloudways acquisition is growing faster than the rest of the business and seems like a no-brainer solution to many small businesses who want absolutely nothing to do with managing their cloud. Now trading at 5x sales and sneaking up on GAAP profitability.

  • Global-e Online - Market Research Future expects e-commerce cross-border sales to 8x by 2030, and Global-e enables and streamlines these sales. With its $SHOP integration still just getting up and running, this is still in the very early innings of what could be a really long baseball game. It will probably always look expensive as long as growth stays high, but its gross profit margin has increased from 32% to 40% in the last three years, so I'll happily keep holding.

I would love to hear which business you all like the most or if you have any worries about my thesis for any of these stocks.

Thank you for reading πŸ™
Which stock is the easiest to disrupt, in your opinion?
27%Fortinet
45%DigitalOcean
27%Global-e Online

11 VotesPoll ended on: 8/31/2023

Better Buy: SoFi or Kinsale Capital?
With $SOFI up 88% and $KNSL up 41% year to date, the two financial stocks are now my largest holdings.

Whereas I have stopped adding to some core holdings like $NVDA and $UPST that have risen quickly, I still think SoFi and Kinsale are interesting at today's prices.

So who is the better buy?


Here's my favorite thing about each company at the moment:

  • SoFi - Aside from its bank's deposit base allowing for cheaper funding for loans, SoFi's lending segment offers interesting interest rate protection. Here's what I mean. If rates continue rising, its personal loans unit benefits as credit card consolidation becomes evermore attractive. If rates fall, student loans and home loans benefit from increased refinancing activity. With the student loan moratorium set to end soon in the U.S., SoFi is well-positioned to realize its goal of profitability by year's end.

  • Kinsale - Amid a boom cycle, the company grew gross written premiums by 58% in Q2. Despite my thinking, "this can't last much longer," CEO Michael Kehoe stated, "And to the extent that inflation is impacting casualty reserve adequacy for the industry, it may be bullish for continued strong rate increases and growth for the near term perhaps through 2024 or beyond." Anything close to last quarter's growth and a combined ratio of 77% for another year or so would quickly outgrow its P/E ratio of 38. Ultimately management expects long-term premium growth to settle in around the low-teens percentages.

All in all, I really like both, but Kinsale's growth may be "safer" thanks to its stellar profitability.

I would love to hear what you all think about these two businesses -- thanks for reading. πŸ™
Which stock is the better buy through 2043?
60%SoFi
40%Kinsale

10 VotesPoll ended on: 8/15/2023

I cast a vote for $KNSL. Seems to have more compounding potential and a more impressive moat in their thoughtful and unusual specialty underwriting.
+ 6 comments
Early Look at Core Portfolio Changes in 2024
I wanted to think aloud with you all regarding my core portfolio changes coming up at year's end.

Each year I add one new stock to my "core portfolio" to keep the ratio of stocks in my core portfolio the same as my age -- 35.

The purpose of these 35 core holdings is to group my favorite current stocks together, making them easy to add to with dollar-cost averaging.

I also allow myself the opportunity to turn over 10% of that core portfolio, meaning I'll switch four stocks out for new ones next year.

However, while these stocks will be removed as core holdings, they will not be sold -- just not actively added to like the rest of the portfolio.

For example, I dropped $SE, $TWLO, and $DOCU last year and added $V/$MA (split), $PGNY, $POOL, and $TREX.

Here was the portfolio before that change:


This year, I have decided that $TDOC and $RBLX are out the door already, with $PINS, $U, $UPST, $ROKU, and $FDX potentially on the chopping block.

Conversely, I am almost sure to add $DOCS and $ODFL to replace Teladoc and Roblox.

That leaves two more stocks to drop and three more to add.

Here's a list of my other candidates to add with a few words on why they're interesting:

  • $WINA - Franchiser of resale retail brands Music Go Round, Once Upon a Child, Plato's Closet, Play It Again Sports, and Style Encore. Total return of 500%+ over the last ten years and massively profitable.
  • $MEDP/$ZTS - Medpace would act as a picks-and-shovels play to the smaller side of the biotech industry. Zoetis dominates pet and livestock healthcare medicine. ROICs of 57% and 18%, respectively.
  • $ULTA - Average ROIC well above 20% for the last decade and is the biggest player in its beauty niche. It would bring some consumer exposure I need, much like Winmark.
  • $LII/$MUSA - Buyback wizards, with Lennox's shares down 28% in the last decade and Murphy USA's down 54% in the same time. ROICs of 40% and 23%. Wildly boring HVAC/refrigeration and gas station industries, but top-tier operators. $AZO/$ORLY could also go here.
  • $WM/$HSY - Pure stability plays against a bear market. I don't have much like this in my core portfolio yet.

Of course, this is an incomplete watchlist, but I wanted to put it in writing all the same.

I would love to hear what you would choose from these or if you have a stock that may be a better idea.

Thanks as always for reading. πŸ™
Which group is most promising to you?
33%WINA/ULTA
22%MEDP/ZTS
22%LII/MUSA/ORLY/AZO
22%WM/HSY

9 VotesPoll ended on: 8/9/2023

An effective management buyback program is the best way to 100 bagger returns IMO. Someone posted the best performing stocks over the last 20 years. And the list was generation tech or top tier ROIC/buybacks like $ODFL and $ORLY. And I feel like identifying good mgmt is easier than generation tech.
+ 4 comments
4 Top Healthcare Stocks for July
I recently revisited four of my favorite healthcare-related stocks in $DOCS, $PGNY, $MEDP, and $INMD and discussed why they all look like interesting buys for the long term.


Here's my investment thesis on each:

  • Doximity - An interesting way to play the advertising shift from linear tv to digital platforms, especially as most countries outside the U.S. seem to find our excessive pharmaceutical ads on tv to be quite odd. I can't disagree. Doximity's platform at least allows pharmas and hospital systems to go straight to the physicians to market their products. Considered the "Bloomberg for physicians," DOCS has 80% of U.S. doctors on the platform and already generates 30% free cash flow (FCF) margins even after stock-based compensation is removed.

  • Progyny - First-mover advantage in the fertility services niche. With 1 in 6 couples facing infertility across the globe -- a number up from 1 in 8 just four years ago -- Progyny's high growth and market-leading fertility results give it multibagger potential. Its Net Promoter Score of 81 highlights how much its products mean to its customers.

  • Medpace - I like to view Medpace as a picks-and-shovels play to the small-cap biopharmaceutical industry. Rather than buying a basket of tiny biotechs, I use MEDP and its suite of solutions (used to navigate the four clinical phases} as though it were an ETF of the biotech industry itself.

  • InMode - Plastic surgery seems terrifying to me and laser-based aesthetics solutions seem too short-term to be great solutions, so InMode's radio-frequency energy technologies fill what the company calls the "treatment gap." Still learning a bit about this one as its a little over my head medically, but I love the idea of its razor-and-blade model being built out over the long term. Trading with a forward P/E of only 14, I'm happy to take a small position and keep watching.

Would love to hear your thoughts on these four, or which one is your favorite.

Thanks as always for reading. πŸ™
Who is your pick for the next decade?
10%Doximity
40%Progyny
20%Medpace
30%InMode

10 VotesPoll ended on: 7/16/2023

This list cannot be complete without CVS at least mentioned as a possibility lol
+ 10 comments
I'll Keep Adding to This Historical Outperformer in July
I recently wrote about one of my favorite picks at this moment in time -- $POOL -- and why I will keep adding to it through July.


Currently, the company is a core holding for my daughter and myself, which is the only stock where that is the case so far.

Aside from its leadership position and past outperformance, there are three specific reasons why history may suggest Pool is set to beat the market over the long term if we buy today.

1) Its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 25% is good for the top quintile among its S&P 500 peers. Generally, stocks in the top quintile of ROIC rankings tend to outperform. Specifically, from 2003 to 2020, the top quintile of ROICs in Motley Fool's investable universe nearly doubled the returns of their lower-ranked peers, making Pool's figures intriguing.

2) Pool's 1.2% dividend has grown by 20% annually over the last decade and has been raised for 12 straight years. Better yet, however, its payout ratio has declined from 35% to 23%, highlighting its rapid earnings growth and pointing to future dividend increase potential. With dividend growth stocks in the S&P 500 beating the broader index by 2.5% annually since 1973, Pool again looks promising.

3) Trading at just 22 times earnings, Pool's P/E ratio in 2023 has been the lowest it has been compared to any point across the last decade -- where it averaged 30. While it will take time for the pool industry to recover from its currently weak macroeconomic environment, today's price looks great for investors looking decades ahead.

Thanks to these three historical indicators -- and the fact the Pool generates 83% of its sales from non (or somewhat) discretionary sales like maintenance, repairs, remodeling, and reonvations -- Pool is my favorite buy for July.

Would love to hear what you all think of this pick for the long haul.

Thanks as always for reading. πŸ™
Will Pool continue beating the market through 2033?
72%Yes
18%No
9%Needs more AI
0%Gross, too close to housing

11 VotesPoll ended on: 7/10/2023

I hope $POOL can keep going higher. After a huge sales bump during the pandemic, I am a bit bearish on the demand for their services during these times and for the next year. After the industry takes a breather from all the massive growth, it can go back to growing back like the good old days.
+ 3 comments
Moore's Law and $ASML
I watched a beautifully simple Half as Interesting video explaining how quantum tunneling will put a theoretical end to Moore's Law.


While I'm not smart enough to know if Moore's Law enabled ASML's run or if ASML's lithography enabled Moore's Law, it seems that the law's exponential growth is due to end -- a topic the Financial Times tackled in this informational article:


I'll fully admit to this being far outside of my wheelhouse -- and I'm saying by no means that ASML is in imminent danger (it is still a core holding for me) -- but I am curious what type of reimagining will be needed by the company, looking 10-20-30 years ahead.

I would be curious to hear your best ideas of where ASML, or this space in general, may be headed -- or if the market's current vote for $NVDA to take charge is the most likely winner over the long haul.

Not an expert here, but my guess would be that Nvidia actually loses market share while also becoming more value at the same time.
+ 4 comments
It is Time to Revisit $DOCS
One of my favorite "stocked ponds" to fish in for new investments are somewhat recent IPOs that have now been trading on the markets for over a year or two.

This little bit of time gives us at least four earnings reports, one 10-k, and the opportunity for standard IPO hype to wear off.

One company currently fitting this billing is Doximity $DOCS, which I rambled a bit about here:


After briefly trading above $100 shortly after its IPO, the company has settled in around the low $30s today and looks rather interesting, in my opinion.

Here is a brief synopsis of what makes Doximity worth a look:

  • the platform is used by 80% of US physicians and 90% of graduates

  • often called the "LinkedIn of healthcare," but CEO says it is more like the Bloomberg of HC

  • its platform hosts a variety of productivity-boosting tools for HC workers (video calling w/ patients, scheduling, fax-on-the-go, e-signatures, newsfeed with continuing medical learning, etc.)

  • these sticky tools generate daily engagement, which, paired with widespread physician adoption, make it a perfect advertising playground for pharma and hospital systems

  • with physicians controlling roughly $3B of the $4B US HC industry, Doximity could become of paramount importance to advertisers as it offers a nearly direct line of contact

  • already, the top 20 pharma and hospital systems are customers of Doximity's

  • yet, the company only has a 5% market share of ad spend from the 415 largest US Rx brands

  • despite being a recent IPO, DOCS already owns a FCF margin of 30% -- even after removing stock-based compensation from this figure

  • sales "only" grew 18% in Q4, but DBNR was 124% among its largest 20 customers

  • trades at 49x FCF (minus SBC again)

Ultimately, Doximity isn't cheap, but its 17x and 11x ad spend ROI for health systems and pharma customers should keep advertisers coming back.

Growing revenue by 22% in a year that saw most ad-dependant businesses struggle to some extent is just fine by me.

Looking a decade out, Doximity's $6B market cap doesn't seem to match the company's potential, thanks to its ability to get advertisers directly in front of the eyes of its highly engaged physicians.
Will Doximity beat the market through 2033?
60%Yes
30%No
10%Not sure

10 VotesPoll ended on: 6/5/2023

Can't speak for the short term but--scuttlebutt--I've yet to hear a doctor rave about $DOCS and I do ask when I have the chance. Maybe I've asked about a dozen physicians over the past couple years. It sounds like they all use it and are sort of engaged but not really. The lukewarm sentiment doesn't excite me.
+ 13 comments
$AXON Added to the S&P 500: Who's Next?
Early last week, once it was clear that $FRC was heading out of the S&P 500, I started thinking out loud about who may be the next addition.

I (selfishly) settled on four I liked: $AXON, $TTD, $VEEV, and $ABNB, and started researching for an article.

However, before I got there, the index added Axon. And before I get yeah right'd directly out of the room, it's all on Twitter if it's important to you at all. πŸ˜‚

So I shifted and wrote this article on why I still like Trade Desk, Veeva, and Airbnb to go next.


Here's some reasoning for why each would be interesting for the S&P Index, as all three seem to meet the necessary market cap and profitability requirements.

  • Trade Desk - The Index's primary exposure in advertising comes in the form of two ad agencies -- $IPG and $OMC -- and all the massive "walled gardens." As a result, TTD seems like a better modern fit for the index, particularly considering its young Unified ID 2.0 solution looks like it could become the standard in the industry, being adopted by AWS, Snowflake, Adobe, and Salesforce recently.

  • Veeva Systems - Providing R&D and Commercial software solutions to the life sciences industry, Veeva recently signed a 10-year contract with behemoth pharma $MRK. This success with large customers and the company's stellar 23% net income margin point to a widening moat and a powerful land-and-expand growth strategy.

  • Airbnb - This may be the most apparent selection of the group (AXON actually would've been my least confident of these 4 -- here we are anyways), but Airbnb being a verb speaks to most of the core reasons why this is an obvious pick for many. Asset-light and sporting an incredible ROIC of 26% in its last quarter, the company should continue growing stronger as younger generations embrace the "work from anywhere" lifestyle and embrace longer-term stays.

Curious to know what you all think of these picks -- or who you might add instead.

Thanks as always for reading. πŸ™
Who should be added next to the S&P 500 Index?
40%Trade Desk
6%Veeva Systems
53%Airbnb
0%Other (comment below)

15 VotesPoll ended on: 5/11/2023

Airbnb's Co-Founder and CEO on Loneliness
I was reading through an $ABNB transcript from a Morgan Stanley Technology conference in March, and this portion jumped right off the page.


It is a bit lengthy but well worth the read as it seems like a fascinating insight into Brian Chesky's (co-founder and CEO) mind and kind of hit home.

"We hired the former Surgeon General in the United States when the pandemic broke out. He's now the Surgeon General again. And he said, do you know what the #1 killer in America is?

And I said, I don't know, is it cardiac? Is it like obesity? Is it cancer? Is it cardiac disease?

And he said, no, it's loneliness. Loneliness takes 15 years off your life. And I thought, wow, that's pretty bad, but how prevalent is this?

And what I realized is that 1 out of 3 Americans are chronically lonely.

But it gets worse.

Because if you actually dig into the details and if you have teenagers in this room, this might resonate. 2 out of 3 teenagers are chronically depressed or hopeless, defined by a 2-week period in the last year where they just can't function.

1 out of 3 teenagers -- 1 out of 3 teenage girls has made a suicide plan.

Why is this? I don't -- it's hard to know, but I think modern life is starting to make people lonely.

The office is now Zoom, the mall is now Amazon, the theater is now Netflix, and time with friends, time sleeping, time exercising -- is spent on devices. And the problem with devices is social networking became social media, and your friends became your followers.

No one has changed someone else's mind in the YouTube comment section.

Your Instagram followers aren't coming to your funeral.

And it's not to say any of this is bad. I think all of these technologies are great. So long as you remember, they have to be in balance with meaningful connections in the real world.

Now how are you going to do that?

Well, I'm not saying we're here to solve this problem. No one company is.

But I'm quite certain that we need to balance all the time on screens with time in the physical world, with people we care about, either reuniting with friends or meeting other people.

And I think that travel is a great way to do that.

And so whatever time I have left doing this -- and I hope it's a long time -- I think there's a much bigger north star for us and then just putting heads in beds.

I think there's something about making the world feel a little bit smaller.

Making people realize the other is not so other.

People are 99% the same, and to really build products and services that, at their heart, bring people together and foster connection because of what we have invented -- probably more than a marketplace -- is a system of trust to get strangers to live together.

And if they could live together, what else could they do together?

And I think that's where this company is probably going in the coming years."

I know he's talking his book a little bit, of course, in some of this, but it does provide a layer of happiness to me as a shareholder to see this thinking flowing through the company's operations.

Curious to know what you all may think.
app.koyfin.com
Koyfin | Advanced graphing and analytical tools for investors
Koyfin provides free tools to help investors research stocks and other asset classes through dashboards and charting. Our coverage consists of equities, ETFs, futures, forex, bonds, mutual funds and economic data. For equities, we provide price history, fundamentals, estimates, news, and snapshots.

Watchlist
Something went wrong while loading your statistics.
Please try again later.
Already have an account?