Updated version as of January 31st, 2024:

On January 18th, 2024, Teako announced that following a recent Norwegian parliament meeting and the various developments in mineral exploration in Fennoscandia in recent years, the Company has decided to pause exploration efforts in British Columbia, to primarily concentrate on Norway, while also maintaining a minor focus on Finland. The majority of the Company’s projects in British Columbia are in good standing for 2-3 years, allowing the Company the strategic flexibility to explore various alternatives, including the potential of partnering with other parties or selling the projects, as part of its ongoing commitment to maximizing shareholder value. Investors will be regularly informed of developments, ensuring transparency and continuous engagement with our valued stakeholders.

https://teakominerals.com/wp-content/uploads/TMIN-NR-18.01.2024-Strategic-Pivot.pdf

Following this decision, I felt it was best to step down from my role as an Advisor with Teako, as my knowledge base relates to the Americas rather than the Nordic countries, and I no longer felt I could effectively serve the company. I wish them all the best as they continue to move forward with their exciting plans for growth in Finland & Norway.

My previous post on Teako's story:

As a Director at Teako, it’s been a tough decision as to whether I should write anything about the company here on CommonStock. Of course I am a fan of the story, or I would not have accepted a position with them, but writing about them could appear to be an act of “promotion” and though marketing is necessary for every company, every junior mining investor knows the downside that comes with that, should a company choose the wrong channel. However, over the past month my Twitter DM’s have been full of questions about the company given what Teako has proposed since its inception – to be a disrupter and do things differently, hopefully setting an example for the sector on many fronts. In an effort to keep those promises, particularly those related to transparency and communication, I will stick to facts in this article and refrain from using any platitudes or promotional jargon. I am solely aiming to answer questions that have been posed to me and if you have any that you would like addressed in addition to this, Teako’s CEO, Sven Gollan, and I would be more than happy to answer them.

A special thank you to our incredibly talented IR Manager, Mark Steeltoft (@mk1invest on Twitter). It pays to hire a hard-working Millennial who knows his way around the latest tech. Mark has made our website & presentation look so amazing that someone recently asked if we are a graphic design company – I’m assuming there was a touch of sarcasm there (?) but yes – Mark is just that good!

As relevant material is released over the coming weeks, Mark will continue to update and improve our website and he is planning to include videos, articles, and other items of interest for our shareholders and interested parties.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention this gentleman as well - someone everyone would want on their team, not only for the positive vibes and good humour that he brings, but the breathtaking graphics he creates. Have a look at his Twitter banner & profile picture (@jamesiebabie1) and you will see what I mean, I am often awestruck by his talent:

Link to the latest $TMIN.CN Corporate Presentation:

How it all started:

Teako’s story began on August 18, 2021 with the CSE listing of 1111 Exploration Corp., a junior exploration company focused on creating shareholder value through acquisition, exploration and development of mineral projects.

Four days later, “Eleven” announced they were initiating a field program on their

15,487-hectare copper & gold project, Pinnacle, in central BC.

http://teakominerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021-08-25-NR-Pinnacle-20-01-final.pdf

“Eleven is earning a 70% interest in the Pinnacle Project from Pacific Empire Minerals Corp. (“PEMC”). Under the terms of the Agreement, Eleven can earn a 70% interest by completing $5,700,000 in exploration expenditures on the Project, paying PEMC an aggregate of $375,000 in cash payments and issuing 3,500,000 common shares to PEMC by the fourth anniversary of the agreement. Following the exercise of the Option, PEMC will retain a 30% free-carried interest in the Project up until the date that Eleven publishes a NI 43-101 compliant Pre-Feasibility Study ("PFS") on the Project. Following completion of the PFS, PEMC and Eleven will form a joint venture with Eleven holding a 70% initial interest and PEMC holding a 30% initial interest.”

At this point in our story, I would like to introduce some of the Teako team members beyond Mark, Owen, and myself - those who were present in the earliest days of the company:

On April 25, 2023, Michael Sweatman resigned from Teako’s board to pursue other interests. My appointment to the board and his resignation shared the same press release:

https://teakominerals.com/wp-content/uploads/TMIN-NR-2023.04.25-Teako-Finland-and-Board-Change.pdf

On March 10, 2022, Eleven announced it had identified drill targets at the Pinnacle project and that fall, Eleven amended the option terms for the project and planned their upcoming field program.

_

The Company is currently planning a follow-up sampling program to expand the target outlined in 2021. This work will include additional soil sampling and expansion of the

magnetic survey both northwest and southeast of the core Aplite Creek area. This work

will be greatly aided by a newly constructed logging access road completed in the

winter of 2022._

A snapshot from the October 31, 2022 MD&A release to give you an idea where the

company sat at that point:

http://teakominerals.com/wp-content/uploads/NR-2022-11-09_ELVN_ Close_PPranche .pdf

After closing its first tranche of financing on November 9, 2022, Teako welcomed Jerker Tuominen as an Independent Director a few weeks later and followed shortly with a second and final tranche of financing.

Some might say that Teako’s story really began in February of this year when the name change from “1111 Exploration Corp.” to “Teako Minerals Corp.” was announced but as I have shown above, several team members had been laying some important groundwork prior to that. In addition to our name change (completed March 1st and officially trading under $TMIN.CN on March 3, 2023 https://teakominerals.com/wpcontent/uploads/2023-03-01-NR.pdf), the company concluded agreements to acquire our BQ and Teako Copper-Gold Projects and a key insider entered the scene.

Was this “key insider” the successful Austrian fund manager, Ronnie Stoeferle?

No, not Mr. Stoeferle - and though I hadn’t officially met this insider yet it, it was certainly someone that I was familiar with…

Some may question why the involvement of an Austrian fruit wholesale company (FruchtExpress) and their external consultant, Sven Gollan, would be a key piece in the

developing story of a junior exploration company with gold and copper properties in

British Columbia, but that’s actually one of the questions I received that compelled me

to write this piece.

Allow me to introduce our CEO, Sven (@kilpisjaervi on Twitter):

_Sven Gollan, CEO commented, “When the “Teako” concept was launched over a year

ago, we wanted to create an exploration company with a modern, effective business

structure that would allow a team of geologists to focus exclusively on field work and

making a discovery. I want Teako Minerals to work with similar goal driven exploration companies to create synergies in a wide variety of fields to jointly implement proven strategies as well as new disruptive ideas. I look forward to being part of this journey, announcing future partnerships, and building shareholder value.”_

Sven-Gollan-as-CEO.pdf

(Owen's incredible artistry evident once again in Sven's Twitter bio)

In the short time I have had the privilege of working with Sven, it’s become apparent that he was likely an instrumental part of Fruchtexpress’s phenomenal success story. The man runs full steam ahead, industrious and determined to achieve his goals and create something special – and most definitely not on a small scale. Both FruchtExpress & Sven are significant shareholders of the company and we intend to maintain a tight share structure that benefits all shareholders.

A link to FruchtExpress’ website if you wish to read about their story, which began as a family business in 1932. The company also invests in exploration, energy, infrastructure, and other food businesses, with exploration being a key interest:

When I first spoke with Sven about joining the Teako team, he made it clear that he wanted the people he hired to be the company’s greatest asset – because a team that enjoys working together is more motivated to contribute to a company’s success and if shareholders can’t trust the people involved, then the projects are worthless.

From the FruchtExpress website:

_

More than 100 employees continue to work together every day on the FruchtExpress

success story… This is our greatest asset. The basis of human encounter can be replaced by nothing! That is why, despite technical aids and state-of-the-art technology, there is enough space in our company for creativity of contacts, trust generating conversation and direct communication. This is appreciated by producers, employees, and customers alike._

Headquartered in Austria, FruchtExpress now serves customers in several countries across Europe. In 2018, they became a shareholder in “Service-Bund”, an association of medium-sized food wholesalers. Their success and impressive growth can be strongly attributed to their implementation of strategic supply chain management & supplier development, and through Service-Bund, they were able to offer customers significantly more.

Enter Teako’s Service Alliance, launched on May 1st and a strategic concept that I frequently receive questions about:

Confession: restraining myself from uttering something here about great things not being built overnight. As much as Sven is putting puzzle pieces together at rocket speed, inquiring minds don’t view it as fast enough to paint an entire picture yet.

One question posed to me was “Why build a company first, rather than having a project?”

I discussed this inquiry with Sven, and we both agreed the answer was “Why not both?” Teako does indeed have projects as I’ve outlined above, and we are continuing to add to our portfolio.

By building a corporate structure alongside initial project development of our BQ and Pinnacle properties (plus our recent acquisitions of Yellow Moose in BC & two projects from Capella Minerals in Norway), Teako has the ability to acquire additional prospective properties in the current market, considered to be rather poor…AKA cheap! Teako intends to grow into its corporate structure and by putting certain pieces in place now, it will allow us to be a ‘fast mover’ when market conditions improve.

We have also had inquiries about choosing to operate in a number of jurisdictions and a focus on both precious and battery metals. Those that have followed me on Twitter & CommonStock are likely familiar with the bull cases I have laid out for the metals sector, particularly for gold and copper. I have also discussed the advantages of having a diversified portfolio and we feel Teako is no different. As Yellow Moose is our most advanced project at present, gold will be our primary metal in BC, while copper, cobalt, and other base metals in Norway & Finland offer tremendous potential in long forgotten brownfield projects, as well as some of the last real greenfield project areas in Europe, a true ‘Wild North’ that is primed for a ‘real’ discovery. In Finland, we are motivated by the great success of AEM and Rupert, and our geos offer special insight into the Nordic’s metal deposits, where gold is often discovered along with copper and

other metals. Based on our extensive network in all target areas, we feel we have a strong basis to expand our business there. History shows the areas we are operating in are considered “safe jurisdictions”, but a key item of note is that our global operations will offer year-round opportunities to have “boots on the ground”, avoiding what is often a seasonal dip in news flow when operating in a single geographical location. With resident country managers appointed for Canada (British Columbia), Norway, and Finland, we are able to avoid language barriers and establish important relationships with local stakeholders, contractors, communities, and government.

https://teakominerals.com/wp-content/uploads/TMIN-NR-2023.04.25-Teako-Finland-and-Board-Change.pdf

On April 25, 2023, Teako announced my appointment as a Director and the establishment of both Teako Finland and Valence Mining Services Ltd (VMS). Valence is a wholly owned subsidiary of Teako Minerals Corp. and will serve to host our growing Service Alliance. By creating a separate entity, Valence can focus on managing and developing the Alliance, allowing Teako to focus on what it does best – exploration.

The Service Alliance Concept:

I attempted above to illustrate some parallels between FruchtExpress’ successful corporate model and that of Teako’s growing Service Alliance. We feel it’s well explained in the slide above from our presentation, but perhaps another helpful tool that demonstrates the value behind the Alliance can be found in this McKinsey article which I sent to my Teako teammates after I read it in May:

capturing-the-value-of-one-firm

The value of working together is intuitive to most leaders. Capturing the full value of

operating as one firm, however, is elusive for most. Those who drive integration and standardization from the top down often stifle business-level innovation, entrepreneurship, and client responsiveness, which can further create talent attraction and retention issues. Those who emphasize local autonomy, however, often create massive inefficiencies, competing priorities, and inconsistent client service. This often leaves organizations both competitively vulnerable and held hostage to rainmakers, as the client relationship is largely owned individually rather than institutionally.

The leaders of most large, global firms have endeavored to achieve the best of both worlds through the creation of a matrixed organization.

“The idea is to capture economies of scale, scope, and skill while creating strong accountability.”

As the McKinsey article clearly shows, there are many advantages gained by working

collaboratively with others and operating under a “one-firm mindset”.

Sven’s original vision for Teako goes beyond that of building just another junior exploration company. Our desire is to create a successful business, built not only on the strength of the Teako team but through a shared effort with like-minded partners.

I’m sure you’d like me to offer specific details on how exactly Teako and Alliance partners will benefit, beyond hopes and dreams. Developments currently underway will emerge in the coming months and will be explained in official press releases. For now, I believe an excellent example that is publicly available information would be to look at our strategic partnership & licencing agreement with The Coring Company:

Frida Vonstad, CEO of The Coring Company comments, “The mining industry is an important factor in the world’s green transition. We believe our collaboration with Teako, can make a difference. Through combining The Coring Company’s knowledge of technology with Teako’s industry knowledge and network - the full potential of our innovative solutions can be reached. It is crucial that the mining industry and innovative companies work together to create viable solutions that increase efficiency as well as reduce the environmental footprint”.

Sven Gollan, CEO of Teako Minerals states, “By leveraging these proprietary tools, we believe we are at the beginning of a new era of exploration, one where newly developed and partly AI-assisted tools will enhance nearly every area of the discovery process. Our team feels privileged to partner with The Coring Company, whose visionary ground-breaking research, AI and robotics will assist in elevating the value of each property within our portfolio. The strategic partnership with The Coring Company aligns with Teako’s vision of incorporating best in class ideas from different sectors to pioneer new and innovative approaches to exploration, with the aim of disrupting the way exploration is done.”

One of my favourite terms in the partnership that seemed to be overlooked:

TCC will apply to Innovation Norway, a government funded entity, for each exploration testing site where up to 50% of exploration costs will be funded by the Norwegian government. TCC will be responsible for 30% and Teako responsible for 20% of the costs.

The License Agreement permits Teako to use the SCS Exploration Product internally and also to resell or refer sales of the SCS Exploration Product within the Teako group of companies, through its wholly owned subsidiary Valence Mining Services Ltd. and its alliance members, and to other entities outside the Teako group of companies.

One very important question posed to me via Twitter was “Why is Teako staking properties in BC & Norway with not enough cash to drill?”

On July 6, 2023, we announced a non-brokered private placement of up to $1,720,000 consisting of the issuance ‘of up to 12,000,000 units (each, a “Non-FT Unit”) at a price

of $0.10 per Non-FT Unit, for gross proceeds of up to $1,200,000, and up to 4,000,000

flow-through shares (each, a “FT Share”) at a price of $0.13 per FT Share, for gross

proceeds of up to $520,000.’

Investors in the junior exploration are well aware that it’s been a tough environment to raise, and in all honesty, it’s been no different for us. Financings in the sector are at a 7-year low. We feel that we have acquired high-quality projects and continue to build our portfolio in a very weak market with the possibility to do all-share deals with just minor work commitments. It’s been frustrating to have sentiment trump facts, as Teako is motivated and able to complete deals. We will continue to grow our portfolio with some of the incredible opportunities currently available to us.

“The number of major company investments in early-stage exploration through project earn-ins and purchases, and junior company acquisitions and financings fell to a seven-year low in 2022.”

However, with commodities radically undervalued and an anticipated super-cycle, we feel we are in attractive position for those looking to invest at the bottom of a cycle. We are currently in talks with a number of investors and it appears promising that we will close our financing in the near future and be able to move forward with our drill program.

Our team is one that strives to keep their word. We are doing our best to achieve our objectives in a timely manner, barring any unforeseen circumstances such as the current forest fires in BC.

We encourage you to keep apprised of our goals and accomplishments updated regularly on our website:

Lastly, to address the concern expressed to me that Teako chose to hire a “social media personality” (me) - as much as I admire the Kardashians’ savvy in that regard, my background is a little more commodity-focused than if Sven had chosen to hire Kim. I’ve worked hard to grow my follower count and I try my best to provide users on Twitter & CommonStock with quality content and an honest & transparent take.

I feel as though I have written a novel at this point and yet I could still add several more details, such as:

I hope you will monitor our website for developments as they are occurring frequently and I sincerely hope that I have cleared up some of the “mystery” that seems to have surrounded Teako. I can assure you, the Teako team is somewhat bewildered by this sentiment, as we feel we have laid out our plan as clearly as possible and will continue to do so.

Any member of our team is open to answering your questions and I can unequivocally state that we actually welcome them. We have a growth story that we are eager to share, so please don’t hesitate to contact any of us, anytime!

Special Disclosure:

I am a Director at Teako Minerals Corp., a publicly traded company, and I also own

stocks in other publicly traded companies. I trade occasionally, and don't always hold

for the long term. Please note that I may own stock in the companies I write about, but

I am not paid by any of these companies. I make an effort to increase transparency for

my followers by writing about my holdings on CommonStock & Twitter, however the

degree of coverage is not meant to be standardized across my holdings and therefore

cannot be considered comprehensive. Please note that this is not intended to be

financial advice and I encourage you to do your own research before making any

investment decisions. By reading my posts, you acknowledge and agree that any

actions you take based on my posts are your own responsibility and that I am not liable

for any losses or damages you may incur. If you have any questions or concerns, please

do not hesitate to reach out to me.

An Arctic blast that’s sweeping through North America is heightening the risk of blackouts. With more cold still in the forecast, electric grids from Texas to Alberta will continue to be under strain and some power prices have surged.

In Texas, which is facing one of its biggest grid tests since deadly winter blackouts in 2021, power demand on Sunday from homes and businesses is expected to hit a winter record of more than 75 gigawatts — and then later in the week possibly set an all-time record. The state’s grid operator asked people to conserve electricity use for Monday morning and warned of a power capacity shortage between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m., “which causes a risk” of an energy emergency event, according to a notice Sunday evening.

See my previous post on historical weather patterns when you have a triple dip La Niña followed by an El Niño...

https://commonstock.com/post/60ffbd9c-e2cd-40b6-a89f-712871ac6edf by

The first time I heard this quote it came from the mouth of Canadian Mining Hall of Fame Inductee, Ross Beaty, during a speech he gave at VRIC. I didn't realize back then that it supposedly originated long ago from Rothschild, who made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon.

The worse things seem in the market, the better the opportunities are for profit. As Warren Buffett warned, "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus." In other words, if everyone agrees with your investment decision, it's probably not a good one.

I don't own any of the tickers mentioned in the tweet below, but this John Black interview is one of my favourite clips worth two minutes of your time. The junior mining sector has suffered greatly from a lack of investment over the past two years, but companies in Peru have been hit particularly hard.

In 2008, Black managed a copper junior in Peru with a significant discovery, copper price was high and projections were 'through the roof'. Within a period of a few months, the share price dropped from $5 a share to just $0.38. Black and his Chief Geologist, Kevin Heather, bought all the way down and were cautioned not to 'try & catch a falling knife'. Within 18 months, the company sold for $9 a share.

I consider the four points marked on the map below to be notable, likely suggesting an impressive geological trend in the Ancash region of Peru:

The blue thumbtack marks Camino Corp's ($COR.V) Maria Cecilia project.

Exploration drilling at Maria Cecilia is expected to start at the beginning of the second quarter of 2024, after drilling is completed at Los Chapitos.

My original post on the company here:

The yellow star is the approximate location of legendary geologist Dave Lowell's Pierina discovery, which sold to Barrick for a 2200% in just twelve months.

The circle just north of Pierina marks $HSLV.CN's recently acquired San Luis project.

David Fincham, President and CEO commented: “We are delighted to be bringing the high-grade San Luis gold-silver project into our portfolio, and are very impressed by the size and grade of the historical resource contained within the Ayelen and Ines vein structures. We believe this deposit may be one of the highest-grade gold-silver deposits of its size that is yet to be mined in the world. Additionally, there may be exceptional growth and discovery potential on this large, but only partially prospected and explored property. There are numerous compelling exploration targets based on previous field mapping and rock chip sampling, and we believe that the district has potential to yield much more. This acquisition has the potential to be transformative for Highlander Silver and aligned with our vision of building a portfolio focused on world-class silver gold projects to the benefit of all our stakeholders.”

On October 28th, Highlander closed a $3 million private placement with strategic investors Augusta Group & the Lundin Family.

Lastly, the circle marked to the south of Pierina denotes Chakana Copper's ($PERU.V) Soledad project.

You can catch Crux's most recent interview with Chakana's President & CEO David Kelley here:

Chakana is expected to close their recently upsized private placement shortly. Gold Fields has now upped their stake in the company to the maximum 19.9% (above that requires a take-over bid according to Canadian securities laws).

The blockades that disrupted copper shipments and mine supplies late in 2022 and in early 2023 have been cleared, with thousands of police officers mobilized.

Authorities have said they’re working hard to unlock projects that have been stuck for years. They were looking to have permitting in place for nine key projects by the end of 2023 and are moving forward with the streamlining of red-tape.

For those that consider themselves contrarians willing to buy when there's 'blood on the streets', Peru offers incredible potential in the year ahead, as the government seeks to end chaos and restore investor confidence.

Junior exploration companies are considered a high-risk investment, so please DYODD and allocate accordingly. The three companies mentioned above are currently in my portfolio and I am happy to answer any questions that I can.

$COR.V $PERU.V $HSLV.CN

Wishing you all the best in the year ahead!

H/T to Tonyforever2023 on Twitter for noticing a typo on my June 18, 2023 post on Market Cycles regarding the increase in gold prices during the bull market of 1998-2008:

https://commonstock.com/post/2f0b702e-b545-455c-90a4-434961cfcb9e by @jennymanydots

Someone was kind enough to invite me to an APEGA event this week, where Dr. Mark Nuttall (no relation to Eric, AFAIK...) from the University of Alberta's Department of Anthropology discussed the time he has spent conducting research in Greenland, Alaska, Finland, and Nunavut.

The presentation was very informative and for those that are invested - or have considered investing - in resource extraction there, I thought I would share some of the details he discussed. I was rather surprised to discover that the people of Greenland are largely supportive of the mining industry, as they seek to improve economic conditions and increase their level of independence from the Kingdom of Denmark.

I made note of a number of the slides used in the presentation so that I could include them in this post.

Dr. Nuttall began by highlighting the areas that define the Arctic region:

Fun fact: you can actually walk from Canada to Denmark!

Dr. Nuttall provided a number of examples to demonstrate how melting sea ice is impacting the Indigenous people's traditional way of life in the Arctic. I found this one regarding the shifting show crab fleet particularly striking.

The Arctic Council is a high-level intergovernmental forum that addresses issues faced by the Arctic governments and the indigenous people of the Arctic. At present, eight countries exercise sovereignty over the lands within the Arctic Circle, and these constitute the member states of the council:

Canada

Denmark

Finaland

Iceland

Norway

Russia

Sweden

United States

Other countries or national groups can be admitted as observer states, while organizations representing the concerns of indigenous peoples can be admitted as indigenous permanent participants.

Shipping is by far the most international of the world's industries. Each and every day, ships of different sizes and capabilities carry huge quantities of cargo and a very large number of passengers cost effectively, cleanly and safely. Maritime transport is essential to the normal functioning the world's economy as over 90% of the world's trade is carried by sea and this mode of transport is, by far, the most cost- effective way to move goods and raw materials en masse around the world. The retreat of the ice caps opens up new areas and routes for navigation.

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) connects the Atlantic with the Pacific Ocean, crossing the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean. The great majority of this route runs along the northern Russian coastline and is therefore "controlled" by Russian authorities. It is regarded as an alternative to the traditional route from Asia towards Europe through the Suez Canal and is actually 40% shorter compared to the one crossing the Indian Ocean.

If climate change proceeds according to the latest scientific predictions, the current very infrequent use of the waters near the Pole will be transformed into a regular and rather heavily-used traffic route directly through the North Pole, even though icebreaker capacities will remain essential. This route would be the shortest possible connection between the American and Europe- Asian continents and, of course, their respective markets.

China has been eyeing lucrative mineral resources as well as potential new shipping routes in Arctic regions, as ice caps recede as a result of rising temperatures.

It released a white paper in 2018 highlighting its plans to create new freight routes linking Asia and Europe via the Northeast, Northwest and Central Passages of the Arctic, raising concerns about the fragile environment of the region.

At the end of 2020, China announced plans to launch a new satellite in 2022 to track shipping routes and monitor changes in sea ice in the Arctic.

According to Dr. Nuttall, sea ice conditions previously provided reliable transportation conditions from October to May, but climate change has shortened the season to a December to March time frame. These changes make it increasingly clear to many Arctic communities that their traditional way of living has become less sustainable, and they will need to adapt and consider alternatives like extractive industries in order to improve economic conditions.

In closing, Dr. Nuttall left attendees with a thought that should give everyone nightmares - and yet again utter the serenity prayer. As humans across the globe rush to impose the necessary changes to stop the implications of climate change, one of the largest concerns of those working in the Arctic relates to melting permafrost. There are serious concerns about the burial of radioactive waste from the Cold War, and toxins and pathogens that will likely be released.

In 1733, an Inuit boy and girl who had been sent to Denmark for the king’s coronation 2 years earlier sailed back home to Greenland. Both were in a “sickly state of health” during the trip, according to an account written a few decades later by a missionary, and the girl died on the way. Shortly after reaching his native land that September, the boy also died, of “a cutaneous disorder.” He had brought smallpox with him, and the disease raced around the island, killing Inuits and Europeans alike. Another missionary wrote of “houses tenanted only by the corpses of their former occupants, and dead bodies lying unburied on the snow.” The outbreak lasted until at least June of the next year, killing maybe half of Greenland’s already sparse population.

In the summer of 2022, a team of researchers visited Greenland to take soil samples from heaps of human and animal waste, or middens, dating from the smallpox epidemic and before. Their goal is to assess the risk that, as the Arctic warms and the permafrost thaws, long-frozen soil could release dangerous pathogens. Such “zombie viruses” are fodder for Hollywood, but they are not science fiction. Temperatures in the Arctic are rising twice as fast as in the rest of the world. And viable pathogens are clearly lurking in the soil, says Marion Koopmans, a virologist at the Erasmus Medical Center who runs a European consortium dubbed the Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory (VEO) that’s studying how northern-latitude warming might influence infectious diseases. “What you see now is studies that find infectious viruses from permafrost.”

If the VEO team does find dangerous pathogens, Greenland could close certain areas to tourists and stop archaeological excavations, Aarestrup says. “I don’t think something will happen, but I do think that it’s good to be prepared for it,” he says. “You should never say never.”

Many changes in the Arctic are ominous, and some of the most troubling are occurring beneath the surface, in the permafrost. Permafrost is a layer of frozen soil that covers 25 percent of the Northern Hemisphere. It acts like a giant freezer, keeping microbes, carbon, poisonous mercury, and soil locked in place.

Now it’s melting. And things are getting weird and creepy: The ground warps, folds, and caves. Roadways built on top of permafrost have becoming wavy roller coasters through the tundra. Long-dormant microbes — some trapped in the ice for tens of thousands of years — are beginning to wake up, releasing equally ancient C02, and could potentially come to infect humans with deadly diseases. And the retreating ice is exposing frozen plants that haven’t seen the sun in 45,000 years, as radiocarbon dating research suggests.

The danger here is not from the slow thawing of the permafrost itself. That is, if the permafrost melts, and we leave the land alone, we’re unlikely to come into contact with ancient deadly diseases. The fear is that the thawing will encourage greater excavation in the Arctic. Mining and other excavation projects will become more appealing as the region grows warmer. And these projects can put workers into contact with some very, very old bugs.

The threat is tiny. But it exists. The big lesson is that even viruses thought to be eradicated from Earth — like smallpox — may still lurk frozen, somewhere.

“We could actually catch a disease from a Neanderthal’s remains,” Claverie says. “Which is amazing.”

I left the Arctic Futures presentation feeling rather positive about the future of mining and investing in the Arctic. However, as someone who struggles with insomnia, I can't say the thought of zombie viruses emerging from thawing permafrost will help me sleep any better at night...

Companies for you to consider doing some DD on, none of which are currently in my PF but that I have written about previously on CommonStock & remain on my watchlist:

$AMRQ.V

$SPC.V & $BMV.V (nickel assets in the Muskox Intrusion)

$BAY.V

As always, please don't hesitate to ask me questions - I'm happy to help wherever I can!

I first wrote about Camino back on March 11; since then Camino finalized their agreement with Japanese JV partner Nittetsu which fully funds drilling & exploration at the Los Chapitos IOCG copper deposit for the next three years.

This morning's press release announcing that Rio Tinto has staked claims immediately adjacent to Los Chapitos generated some excitement and shares of $COR.V traded over 10x the average daily volume with the share price rising over 22% at the time of this writing.

In addition, South32 has an earn-in strategic alliance on the ground immediately north of Los Chapitos.

Drilling is anticipated to begin in December, following completion of road construction to new targets determined with the assistance of Nittetsu.

A notable part of Camino's story that wasn't reported by the company, as it was a Nittetsu partnership, is the involvement of Getech:

Camino remains a high risk investment, but it's also my personal favourite and largest allocation to a junior mining company. Please DYODD, there's a reason I called it the "hero or the zero" - never invest more than you can afford to lose.

I'm always happy to answer any questions that I can, and I'd like to express my gratitude to Camino's CEO Jay Chmelauskas and Investor Relations goddess Olga Krysak, as they have always responded to my emails & phone calls in a timely manner.

My original write up on Camino here:

https://commonstock.com/post/04aaaac0-5457-4f13-a70e-ed62409d6160 by @jennymanydots

I first wrote about the Save Canadian Mining initiative back in May and quite honestly it saddened me to see the post didn't garner much interest - because it matters, and UNLESS someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.

If there's one thing that frustrates me in life, it's hearing people say that 'one voice can't make a difference' because it can - especially when one voice joins together with hundreds of others and the noise of the chorus then becomes too loud to ignore.

Link to May 2nd post:

I had the privilege of meeting Terry Lynch, Founder of the SCM movement & CEO of Power Nickel, at PDAC in Toronto last year. I share many of his concerns about the damage being done to retail investors and junior mining companies after the 2012 removal of the trading rule known as the 'tick test'. As the SCM site states, this has created "a dynamic where short selling activities, high frequency trading, and algorithms are exploiting the lack of a tick test to the detriment of Canada's junior markets."

Terry posted an update on October 17th 'to share some encouraging news that could mark a turning point in the fight against this harmful practice' (of naked short selling):

You can read more about the recent ruling in the US in the Oil Price article linked below, but for those that invest via Canadian exchanges, our battle is far from over.

On September 29, Federal District Court Judge Lorna Schofield of the Southern District of New York issued a ruling that has the potential to significantly disrupt Wall Street compliance, and is a major first step towards protecting retail investors from fraud.

In Harrington Global Opportunity Fund Ltd. v. CIBC World Markets, Inc et.al, Judge Schofield found that broker-dealers may be primarily liable for manipulative trading initiated by their customers because they serve as “gate-keepers” of trading on securities exchanges.

In August, 2022, the IIROC addressed certain naked short selling concerns - seemingly leaving much of the regulation open to interpretation.

As IIROC has not defined the meaning of “reasonable expectation” in UMIR, the Guidance provides some clarification. IIROC’s predecessor has previously stated that the “reasonable expectation” standard “merely requires that the vendor not make a sale knowing that the securities cannot be borrowed and that the vendor take ‘reasonable steps’ to attempt to borrow the securities to make delivery on closing” [emphasis added].[4] The Guidance imposes a higher standard, requiring that the vendor have “reasonable certainty” that it can access sufficient securities to settle the trade, and that a vendor must not enter a short sale order if it “knows or ought reasonably to know” that sufficient securities will not be available for settlement. This should place more of an onus on a Participant to take steps to ensure that it can settle the short sale order prior to execution of the order, but it is unclear as to what such steps might entail.

The Guidance may bring Canadian short selling rules more in line with other jurisdictions, of which Canada has been and remains an outlier.[5] For example, the U.S. requires that broker-dealers “identify a source of borrowable stock” before executing a short sale trade.[6] It may be that in order for a Participant to have “reasonable certainty” that such Participant has access to sufficient securities to settle a short sale trade, the Participant necessarily has to identify a source of securities to cover the trade. However, without more guidance as to the meaning of “reasonable certainty”, it is difficult to assess what is required of a Participant, absent future examples of enforcement.

A recent article by Niall McGee in the Globe & Mail mentions a number of reasons Canadian junior exploration companies are struggling and many might not survive, while others are looking to list on alternate exchanges where investors and regulatory framework offer greater support.

I strongly encourage you to take a moment & subscribe to receive email updates from SCM and add your voice to the chorus; hopefully together we can make a change.

Save Canadian Mining is a movement to return market rules to the fair and transparent standard that helped deliver prosperity for over 142 years. Together, we can save Canadian mining.

I'm back! After spending September & October in and out of medical care, I'm happy to say that I am on the mend and intend to resume my regular posting schedule here on CommonStock. Junior miners have had a tough time this fall, so my health probably chose a good time for me to go MIA...apologies for going AWOL!

Sharing THREE podcast links for commodity investors to enjoy this weekend:

My good Twitter friend @jleqc passed this one onto me, as we are both fans of Porter Collins who you can follow on Twitter @seawolfcap. If you aren't familiar with Porter, he was featured in The Big Short:

Found this gem through one of my favourite Twitter follows and micro cap mentor @iancassel:

In this episode, William Green talks with Chris Davis, a renowned investor at Davis Advisors who also serves on Berkshire Hathaway’s board of directors. Here, Chris shares powerful lessons he’s learned from his mentors—Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger—about building financial resilience, learning from our mistakes, avoiding our weaknesses, harnessing trust, & flourishing as we age.

I can't believe I have only recently made a habit of checking the content on MiningStockEducation.com - Bill Powers often has some fantastic interviews and David Erfle is always a favourite guest (juniorminingjunky.com). I enjoyed this one so much that I actually listened to it 3x - I hope you enjoy it too!

In this interview pro mining investor David Erfle provides his commentary on the gold price and junior gold stock sector. He explains why he believes the junior miners have already capitulated and that a slingshot move upwards is coming. David Erfle is a self-taught mining sector investor. He stumbled upon the mining space in 2003 as he was looking to invest into a growing sector of the market. After researching the gains made from the 2001 bottom in the tiny gold and silver complex, he became fascinated with this niche market. So much so that in 2005 he decided to sell his home and invest the entire proceeds from the sale into junior mining companies. When his account had tripled by September, 2007, he decided to quit his job as the Telecommunications Equipment Buyer at UCLA and make investing in this sector his full-time job. David founded the Junior Miner Junky subscription-based newsletter in April, 2017 and writes a weekly column for precious metals news service Kitco.com, whose website attracts nearly a million visits every day.

Robert Sinn with another excellent session, worth your time if you invest in junior exploration companies:

ICYI - here's a rough transcript of my High Energy Tuesday spaces; many thanks to two of my favourite Twitter friends for graciously hosting me, so I could talk about mining & metals in what is normally an energy spaces!

Including source links to some of the info I presented.

I have been on twitter a long time & I have learned - having a Twitter account is like being a politician - you will never make everyone happy, no matter how hard you try – personally I have just given up.

I will say, this app continues to reaffirm my faith in humanity much more often than it causes me to doubt it.

However, a word to the wise, there are far more “bad actors” on this platform than most realize. A healthy dose of skepticism will serve you very well.

Some of these bad actors can be really condescending & rude -- and it’s important you’re aware why they use this tactic:

They want to intimidate you, then you are less likely to question them and just assume they are an authority on the matter.

Others can be very charming, you might even consider them a friend, but remember -- Ted Bundy was charismatic too. A serial killer gets his victim in the car, either by force, or by charm.

I once heard a former US President speak, and he mentioned something that always stuck with me:

He knew what he did NOT KNOW and was not afraid to admit it.

By surrounding himself with experts that knew better than he did, he made better, more informed decisions – and that’s what I try and do myself here.

I am incredibly fortunate to have a small circle that I speak with daily – every one of them brings a different perspective– but most importantly, they are wonderful people. This can be a tough gig, and some days you really need friends that can empathize or laugh with you, or someone you can bounce ideas off of, and know that their answers are in your best interest.

I strongly suggest people consider forming a circle of friends that will tell you what you DON’T want to hear --in a way that’s acceptable to you – because as I have often said, echo chambers do us more harm than good.

I have seen that happen repeatedly here, and I think it’s far too easy and comfortable for people to just seek confirmation bias – because it’s upsetting to think you’ve made a poor decision, or to think that this thesis you’ve held a long time and firmly believed in could have been wrong…but if you’re presented with facts that disprove your theory, it’s only going to harm your bottom line if you’re too proud to consider them and change course.

I believe that any success I have had in the junior arena over the past few years is very much thanks to many of the people that I have met here; it is - 100% - nothing that I could have accomplished on my own.

I ran a poll recently - asking people how much time they spend performing due diligence before buying, and the majority answered “hours” not “days” - well to me “hours” is FOMO.

I am posting two tweets from accounts I respect – CEO Technician and Equivest. Their views seem to oppose each other, but both approaches are worth considering.

As CEO Tech said, I need to practice more JOMO (the joy of missing out) because as much as I wish, I don’t have the dry powder to buy everything I like – nor should I.

Equivest mentioned she doesn’t overthink and will buy on the open if the announcement shows the signs of a real discovery – and THEN you can scrutinize and decide if it’s a long term hold, and maybe take some profits along the way – which is exactly what I did with BAY.

Some may have seen my tweets in the last couple weeks about Aston Bay. I was incredibly lucky that worked out for me as a short-term trade; it wasn’t my first “FOMO” trade and I am sure it won’t be my last -- but normally I am much more cautious about tweeting those names, because if I don’t know much about a company then I shouldn’t be talking about it publicly - so I can understand why I faced some judgement over that.

Hopefully I can atone for some of that sin by sharing why I think I made a mistake, regardless of any profit that I luckily made:

If you don’t properly research a company yourself, it’s far too easy to listen to what complete strangers are saying and make your decisions based on that.

Please allow me again, I just want to highlight the word – “strangers” – if you haven’t met someone in real life and they are an anon account, I don’t care if they have 10,000 followers or 50,000, you really need to consider someone’s motivation for being here – I can’t state that enough.

I NEVER buy or sell just based on what I am seeing on Twitter and chat boards, and I didn’t do that with Aston Bay -to be clear. I monitor unusual volumes to see if anything interesting is happening out there (junior mining hub and CEO.ca are great sites for that – you can filter by exchange, share price, market cap etc and see the market movers of the day).

After the BAY press release stating they had made a significant discovery, I researched the management and felt that was a strong enough case to take a position fairly quickly. However - I did NOT research former drill results, the history of the stock, or the jurisdiction – and those are all incredibly important aspects that I should have.

I am out for now and will take the time to properly research the company and might buy back in, if I feel I have built enough personal conviction to do so. If I miss out on another move in the short-term, I’m okay with that --because if it’s what some are suggesting, then there will be time to add as it moves up.

The one good thing that I loved about Aston Bay’s story – the junior mining sector has been dead for a long time. Financings are at a seven-year low, sentiment has been terrible for a good two years it seems, and it needs to be reinvigorated with an exciting story or two. So if BAY works out to be that, then I think it’s a wonderful thing.

CEO Tech recently hosted a space with Luc Ten Have and they made some great points I wanted to mention, for those that didn’t have a chance to catch it:

Not all promotors out there will tell an honest story and that’s one of the things that gives the junior mining sector a bad name.

There are plenty of promo people on discussion boards, here on Twitter, or on CEO.ca, as well as a few questionable newsletter writers…

I know we all want to believe everyone has good intentions, but unfortunately that is not the case. I find it really frustrating to see the trust people place in some of these sources – because it’s often not deserved. I can’t say it enough – it’s so critical people do their own research and verify facts – particularly management’s track record.

I’m a big fan of Ian Cassel from the MicroCap Club, and he tweeted the other day that if you don’t believe that management is important when investing in microcaps, just wait a little longer, because you will. Investing in small illiquid companies is an art-form because you are investing in people and I couldn’t agree more.

My best returns have almost always come from reputable people with a history of success and I know Rick Rule has said the same thing. Luc said he considers insider buying a form of promotion and I place a lot of weight on how much skin management has in the game.

HOWEVER, I think it’s most important to watch insider SALES and this is a debate that I have had with people who say management needs money to buy a house or a car – well, do five of them at once? And exactly at the moment that a share price peaked? Again, microcaps in mining are different here than oil and gas majors, where you see a lot more equity-based compensation.

Checking an insider’s history beyond just recent transactions that they have filed is super important IMO. I often see a pattern – share price performance is correlated to insider transactions and sometimes you need to check management’s insider history at prior companies and that means looking back a few years. Surprisingly, this only takes a few minutes but if you make it a habit, I guarantee you will see why it’s a must for me.

Luc was telling CEO Tech that when investing in junior miners, he thinks about how much he can stand to lose, rather than how much he stands to gain - and I think that’s a terrific approach.

I have always tried to make it clear that these penny stocks can easily go to pretty much zero, and I have had the misfortune of being one of the lemmings that falls off the cliff with all the others.

These stocks are so illiquid, if you think it’s easy to get out with minimal losses – I can assure you 100% that it is not.

One of the things I do personally is lurk on CEO.ca:

Someone was asking me for a book recommendation the other day and I commented that for the last year or two, I just read as much news as possible from as many sources as possible.

I find that if I take as much as I can in from everywhere, it gives me a bit more of a balanced take on things and by doing that, I formed my own view of the outlook for certain metals.

(kind of like a steady diet of Fox News or just MSNBC, versus both of those and some centrist media too – you’re less likely to have an extreme or one-sided view).

I had a look at tradingeconomics.com (great site for commodity pricing) to see if their forecasts aligned with mine and generally, they did (posting a table in the nest with their data as of last week).

So I’m changing my stance on a few things and what I say might upset a few people, but this is just my opinion from information I have gathered over the past few months. As we all know, commodities can be a wild ride and the big picture is constantly changing.

As John Maynard Kaynes said “when the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do?”

I think it’s a terrible idea to stick with your thesis when facts are trying to slap you in the face!

I am not ashamed to reverse my stance on certain metals, I would much rather do that than go with my pride and potentially take others down with me on a sinking ship.

Again – I am here to express my thoughts, and I am sure that plenty of folks will disagree with them, but I think it’s prudent to exercise caution on a few things…

I just want to share a quick story first from 2018 – when an exec from BHP was speaking at PDAC in Toronto and I think you will come to see the incredible irony here, if not maybe I need to explain it later:

Daniel Malchuk, President of BHP’s Operations said:

A story to keep in mind, again that was a BHP exec at PDAC a few years ago.

I occasionally have a look at what CATL is up to - based in China, they are the world’s largest EV battery maker, manufacturing approximately 30% of global supply.

They currently seem to favour the lithium-iron-phosphate battery but the possibility of replacing lithium-ion batteries with sodium-ion should be monitored very closely.

Vanadium seems even more likely to be replaced than lithium - as sodium appears to be a better option for grid-scale energy storage. I joked to someone the other day that Rick Rule broke my vanadium when he mentioned Largo and VAND were his two top picks on BNN.

Initially I saw it as validation (because I was Vanadium Cassandra) that Ross Beaty, Robert Friedland, and then Rick Rule were all fans of vanadium but the fact is - technology is rapidly changing and more cost-effective & efficient solutions are always sought after.

As lithium prices continued to surge throughout 2022, progress in developing sodium-ion batteries surpassed expectations.

Last November, CATL announced that their sodium-ion batteries are anticipated to power EVs in the future. They have discovered a way to use sodium cells and lithium cells in a single battery pack and are now prepared to mass-produce these “mixed” battery packs;

sodium battery cells are so similar to lithium ones – and I think this is a key point - that they can be made with the same factory equipment.

A little background for non-chemists like me, on sodium versus lithium:

There are six chemical elements – alkali metals - that make up Group 1 of the periodic table, lithium and sodium are two of them.

Sodium is the sixth most abundant of the elements, constituting 2.6% of the Earth’s crust – that’s a lot. Lithium, though also abundant, is considerably rarer, forming 0.007% of Earth’s crust.

Sodium currently sells for 1 to 3% of the price of lithium.

The extraction and processing of lithium can have negative impacts on the environment, including water pollution and depletion of resources.

Sodium, on the other hand can be extracted from seawater, which reduces the environmental impact of mining.

Sodium is less reactive than lithium, reducing the risk of fire and explosion – which we know has been a serious concern for lithium-ion batteries.

Sodium-ion batteries can operate at lower temperatures, while lithium-ion can lose up to 50% of their capacity when exposed to below freezing temperatures. Most people in Calgary would tell you, this is one of the reasons they have been hesitant to purchase an EV, as their performance during a cold winter remains questionable.

Batteries contribute significantly to the cost of an EV and sodium-batteries are approximately 20-30% cheaper than lithium-ion -- so such a change would significantly reduce the cost of an EV which has also been a barrier to adoption.

Someone asked me recently about concerns regarding energy density in sodium batteries.

CATL began large-scale commercial production recently of sodium-ion batteries that have an energy density of 200 watt hours per kilogram. To put that into perspective, the LFP battery cells Tesla used in 2021’s Model 3 Standard Range came in at around 200 watt hours/kg so the same.

For those that are skeptical of word coming out of a Chinese company like CATL – how about listening to the CEO of the world’s largest mining company:

BHP’s chief exec Mike Henry said he is confident we will start seeing sodium replace lithium for certain applications and that it would shave off the peak demand for lithium.

On July 27th, the President of BHP Australia addressed the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia and made it clear that BHP would continue to focus on the core minerals of the business - iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, nickel and potash. Lithium was notably missing.

BHP doesn’t believe it can construct lithium mines at the same large scale and accompanying low costs that have made its iron ore and coal segments so profitable.

They had the same view going back to 2018, when they said they expected profits in the lithium sector to be hit as more supply came online in the wake of cheaper production techniques, saying “the available economic profit in that industry for the next couple of decades really isn’t there”.

And if you don’t believe CATL or BHP – how about the Australian government?

In July the Australian govt’s quarterly report stated that growing global output means lithium is in for a brutal price correction.

2024 will see a dramatic drop-off in contract value for Australia’s spodumene miners with prices declining nearly 40% year-on-year, and falling an estimated 20% further in 2025.

Lithium hydroxide prices in 2023 are forecast to be almost a third below last year’s average, and are expected to decline further next year before easing in 2025.

Unlike lithium batteries, the latest sodium batteries do not require scarce materials like cobalt.

Cobalt is mined mainly in Africa under conditions that have alarmed human rights groups.

The newest sodium batteries also do not require nickel, which comes mainly from mines in Indonesia, Russia and the Philippines.

Personally I have never been a cobalt bull –given the human rights abuses related to it, as well as its expense; battery makers have tried to decrease or eliminate it from battery chemistry for some time.

Perhaps more important to note:

The nickel market is facing a massive supply glut as surging Indonesian production continues to outpace demand.

In March 2021, Tsingshan (ChingShawn) – the largest nickel producer in the world, accounting for about 20% of the global market, announced a breakthrough in making nickel sulphate by converting nickel laterite ores to nickel pig iron, and then further to nickel matte, which is later processed into battery chemicals.

For those unfamiliar, nickel pig iron is a low-grade ferronickel invented in China as a cheaper alternative to pure nickel for the production of stainless steel.

The International Nickel Study Group is forecasting a supply-demand surplus of 239,000 tonnes, the largest in at least a decade - and a significant increase from last year's excess of 105,000 tonnes.

Writing this I was thinking about all of those IEA studies that focused on the increase in demand for nickel and cobalt, and again I thought how much better one is served by considering a multitude of sources rather than just one or two, that you assume are reliable.

I’m not exiting my vanadium, nickel, or lithium picks entirely at this point -- but I have reduced my position sizing for those commodities and would urge caution and suggest people monitor developments closely.

Rare Earth Elements (REE’s) – this is a crucial one people aren’t paying enough attention to.

I often tweet the acronym REEs and am asked privately what it stands for – an indication that people don’t have these niche metals on their radar. They aren’t rare in their presence, rather they are named as such because they are difficult to extract and process, even with today’s technology.

In early August, China started restricting exports of two materials- gallium & germanium - key to the semiconductor industry, as the chip war with the US heats up. These materials are used to produce chips and have military applications.

China produces 80% of the world's gallium and 60% of germanium - making it by far the largest player in the global supply chain.

$TECK is one of the world's largest integrated germanium producers. Germanium-bearing concentrates are processed at their integrated lead/zinc refinery in Trail BC – so yay if you own TECK – bonus rare earth exposure, beyond their copper assets!

REE’s comprise only 17 elements from the entire periodic table, and they play a critical role in national security, energy independence, environmentally friendly technology, and economic growth. Many advanced technologies have components made from REEs such as magnets, cell phones, fluorescent lighting, and batteries. I think almost everyone would be surprised to learn about the REE’s required to make your cell phone – you probably wouldn’t have one without them, and yet barely anyone can name a single REE.

If a single country controls almost all of the production, and makes a firm decision not to export, then the entire supply of a commodity can be quickly cut off. That is a dangerous situation when new sources of supply take so long to develop.

In 2010 China significantly restricted their rare earth exports. That was done to ensure a supply of rare earths for domestic manufacturing and for environmental reasons. This shift by China triggered panic buying, and some rare earth prices shot up exponentially.

Notice the outlook for some rare earth metals in the trading economics table that I posted and you will see indium holds some promise. Most indium is used to make indium tin oxide (ITO), which is an important part of touch screens, flatscreen TVs, and solar panels. This is because it conducts electricity well, it bonds strongly to glass and it’s transparent – so indium is likely one commodity worth looking at and so are several other rare earth’s.

Am I still a copper bull? In the long term, most definitely and I continue to see headlines that support my view. I wrote a post on CommonStock called Copper & GoRozen Greatness –one of my favourite GoRozen research reports was their 2021 - The Problems With Copper Supply - and copper remains their favourite base metal investment (mine too)!

Copper’s widespread applications — from homes and manufacturing to electronics, power generation, and transmission as well as it’s expected role in the energy transition, primarily EVs, and renewables, solar panels, and wind turbines in particular - are more copper-intensive than their traditional counterparts

I know that Goldman Sachs has been a commodity permabull, particularly regarding copper – but they were calling for global copper stocks to be potentially depleted by august.

SMM China Metals data showed that as of Friday, copper inventory across major Chinese markets hit the lowest for the year.

Looking at the supply-side:

Anglo American cut its production estimates for the year because of deteriorating grades at their Chilean mines.

Codelco is the world’s largest copper producer – and is said to be at risk of insolvency with production at a 25 year low. Over the past five years, Codelco’s copper production has dropped 17% and is expected to keep falling until 2025.

Companies spent much of the past decade expanding mines to guarantee shareholders a better return in the short-term rather than finding and developing new copper projects...one of the reasons I am bullish on junior copper exploration companies! We are in dire need of new discoveries.

I am constantly seeing headlines about majors looking to grow their copper portfolio, in May it was announced that Glencore was looking to expand their Peru copper mine at a price of $1.5B USD

I’m seeing increased investment by Chinese and Japanese companies, particularly in Peru – I will talk about jurisdiction shortly.

Looking at the demand side of the equation:

Even if China’s property market falters, we are still looking at a significant increase in that country’s copper demand from growth in their renewable and EV sectors.

Copper demand from India was up 27% in 2022. The per capita copper consumption in India is expected to increase from the current level of 0.6 Kg to 1 kg in coming years.

The average per capita copper consumption in the world is 3.2 kg. If India’s moves towards the per capita copper consumption levels in the rest of the world, India’s copper market has the potential for significant growth. India is forecast to be the fastest-growing economy in the G20.

Regarding Peru - a favourite MinTwit saying of mine is “politicians come and go, but the rocks will always be there”

At a conference back in October, BHP CEO Mike Henry said the company is ready for a strategic shift out of its geographical, advanced-economies comfort zone into “tougher jurisdictions” as part of its plan to increase exposure to commodities such as copper.

Henry said he was confident the company could manage the risks of investing and operating in politically volatile countries.

In his speech at the VRIC, Ross Beaty said “buy when there is blood on the streets because that’s when the real money is made.” It sounds awful if you take that phrase literally but he was correct in that when countries are upended by political chaos, equities are obviously cheaper and if and when things return to normal, then you can see incredible gains.

I don’t believe any jurisdiction is “safe” so to mitigate risk, I personally construct a geographically diversified portfolio.

I am pretty keen on Peru right now, as they are working hard to remove roadblocks that hinder or delay mining exploration and development. Mining investments there are on the rise and June saw a 9.6% increase compared to May.

The first half saw mining investments in Peru reach $1.8B and the hope is that by year end, that figure reaches $4.7B.

They are currently on their sixth president in two years, so political chaos is almost the norm there.

I think it’s important to investigate some of the jurisdiction risks at the level of the local community, because those relationships are of critical importance – if you don’t have local support it’s very difficult to move forward.

Perhaps the saddest situation is in Ecuador, which has now surpassed Colombia in gang-related violence. After the first election round this past weekend, two candidates will now face a runoff election on October 15th.

I hold a few investments in Ecuador and though I am obviously concerned about the conditions there, it’s been interesting to note the activity that continues to take place.

Luminex Resources began negotiations back in February, 2022, and announced yesterday that it had reached a mediated agreement with informal miners at their Condor gold project in southeast Ecuador.

Last week Dundee Precious Metals completed an “investment protection agreement” with the Government of Ecuador, granting them tax stability and certain tax incentives, as well as legal protections including stability of the regulatory framework, and resolution of disputes through international arbitration.

Obviously these agreements can take a great deal of time and situations are complicated – but business can still move forward despite the instability.

When I asked DS and Jleqc if there was anything in particular they would like me to cover tonight, they said “anything that excites me”...

There’s always something that does, but I thought I would throw a couple names out there to put on people’s radar. I won’t say much because I really want people to do some digging themselves, and not rely on anything that I say.

There’s a few interesting stories worth looking at and again, I like high risk/high reward so please bear that in mind and DYODD and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Here’s just some names people might want to check out:

The first one I will mention is Aurania, ARU.v.

Even if you aren’t interested in buying, and again – this one is in the jungles of Ecuador – can’t get much riskier than that, but wow – definitely the most interesting story I have ever read in my time here.

I wrote about it on CommonStock if you are interested in reading my piece, but here’s the skinny on it:

Dr. Keith Barron and his team discovered the Lundin’s Fruta del Norte deposit in 2006 – his company Aurelian saw its share price go from $0.40 to FORTY FOUR dollars.

Dr Barrons is on the hunt for a second Fruta del Norte (on the same trend with a larger land package), and he is hoping to provide shareholders with a repeat.

The story involves ancient maps from the Vatican’s library, the sinking of the SS Central America which carried about $3B worth of gold (today’s dollars) from the San Francisco mint, how to survive a giant centipede bite, and the author of a book about the infamous Bre-X story – which was a basis for the movie Gold with Matthew McConaughey. If you haven’t seen that, I have about 4x now and would recommend watching it.

Another company of interest to me is Cordoba Minerals $CDB.V.

Cordoba is exploring in two world class porphyry copper belts, Arizona & Colombia.

(Ivanhoe Electric/Robert Friedland – 63.27% and JCHX, a mining construction company from China – 19.99%)

It’s tightly held and retail only owns about 16%.

Their Perseverance Project Lies on the Arizona Volcan Arc, a trend that hosts

 Freeport McMoRan’s Bagdad copper mine

 Origin Mining’s Mineral Park mine

 Rio Tinto’s Resolution Project

I have been interested in this one for awhile, but recent insider filings finally made me a buyer.

One I am not sure about, I have a small starter position and am still researching but if you’re looking for exposure to some rare earths, Namibia Critical Metals might be worth a look – that’s NMI.v. Again I like to see some big name backing, and they have a partnership with a large Japanese company (JOGMEC).

The last one, and I have mentioned this one before is:

Camino Minerals, $COR.V

I recently tweeted about calling CEO’s or management of a couple of my duds. I had a call with Jay of Camino around the same time and hope no one thought I considered it a “dud” because it’s probably my favourite holding right now.

I spoke with Jay for 90 mins earlier this month and I was actually hoping that my enthusiasm would be tempered but that was not the case…

I was aware that Jay had co-founded Lithium Americas and knew he had worked with, and continues to work with Robert Friedland but I didn’t realize they had been friends for over 20 years

Jay has also worked closely with Dr. David Broughton of Ivanhoe Mines (Dr. Broughton is currently an advisor for Aston Bay).

…nor did I realize that prior to Lithium Americas, Jay was the President and CEO of Jinshan Gold Mines where he led the development of China’s second largest producing gold mine.

One of the things I like about Camino is the fact that they have three properties of significant potential and though they are all in Peru, they are each uniquely different and located in different parts of the country.

I invested in Camino prior to their signing on with Nittetsu for a JV on their Los Chapitos property, but for me that JV de-risked the project significantly, as drilling and exploration are now funded for the next three years.

I have looked at several companies in Peru and noticed almost all have struggled under the weight of Covid and political chaos the last two years. Many are cheap and I believe Camino is extremely undervalued.

One of the reasons Camino’s share price also suffered, and Jay was apologetic for this, was due to the fact that their largest shareholder – Ken McNaughton was involved with Pretium Resources as their Chief Exploration Officer. In March of 2022, Newcrest acquired Pretium Resources - including 100% of their Brucejack operation – one of the highest-grade operating gold mines in the world.

As some of the political chaos in Peru has subsided and Ken has completed the Pretium transaction, Jay assured me that they are fully focused on Camino and the development of Los Chapitos, followed by Maria Cecilia (for which they are in talks with other JV partners), and later Plata Dorada and potentially more acquisitions. Important to note as well that a lot of Camino’s permits have been granted which is always a big reason for delays.

Again please do your own research, I’m not a professional – but I always love hearing about new tickers and I assume others do too – so these are worth checking out and it’s up to you to decide whether or not you like them! If I have missed red flags, please don’t hesitate to share that with me…because I can’t say I am keen on losing money.

And that’s a wrap!!

TWEET ARTICLES/STATS:

Article from MIT Technology Review on why cobalt & nickel are being replaced or decreased;

https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/02/17/1068814/meet-the-new-batteries-unlocking-cheaper-electric-vehicles/?utm_source=the_spark&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the_spark.unpaid.engagement&utm_content=*%7Cdate:m-d-y%7C*

Great articles from MIT technology review & NYT & FT

CATL New Product Launch

Sodium-ion batteries from CATL and BYD to be installed in mass-produced cars by Q4 2023

No lithium, no cobalt, no nickel, no graphite and not flammable –

CNBC: How Sodium Might Replace Li-ion Batteries:

SP Global: Emerging Battery Chemistries

the removal of cobalt is an "inevitable trend,"

"we should never underestimate this disruption."

Info about REE's:

SP Global on India: