@irish

Irish Born Investor's avatar

$16.4M follower assets

Recovering Growth Investor, Trader, Prolific Tweeter - Taking anything I say as advice wouldn’t be advisable. My opinions are probably someone else’s.
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Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.4m follower assets
23rd June 2022 - Trading Journal & Market Breadth
Today's trading journal is brought to you by IBKR. I use them as my main brokerage for both investing and trading. As a European investor I have tried several different platforms and I can safely say they have the most comprehensive platform available to any EU based investor. In terms of platform power, safety and products (Stocks, Options, Futures etc.) You can check out the platform here.

Market Outlook:

According to my charts the Russell is bouncing the hardest. The $QQQ & $SPXC remain somewhat lacklustre for now. New lows have dropped however.

$QQQ Stocks Above 100 Day, 150 Day & 50 Day

$SPXC Stocks Above 100Day, 150 Day & 50 Day

$SPXC $QQQ $IWM Stocks Above Short Term 20 Day Moving Average

$SPXC $QQQ New Highs/New Lows

Pre Market Work:
I have been somewhat lax this week with a trading journal. I actually missed a planned trade on the $SPXC futures with a limit order by .25. At the time I was fine with this but yesterday I entered a similar trade much earlier than I'd usually like and I am putting it down to a touch of "I'm not missing it again". I stopped out and later entered a better long trade with very tight RR to end the day in the green. I also attempted a trade in $VIVO as biotechs are looking strong but the volume wasn't there and I stopped for a decent day trade profit. I am working with my scans and updating my watchlists but right now I am somewhat suspect of the rally. I do not see sustainable swing setups that I am happy to take so I am biding my time with a few hit and run trades here and there.

Trading Day:
Here is the basis of my trading plan today. If i get a really nice entry to the futures I will go long for a potential run to $3850. I will also see if there is any movement on my watchlists but realistically I don't believe this will be the case.

Traded $GTLB & $VIVO along with $SPXC by way of futures. Ended the day with a small profit. I should have continued both first trades as swings but I'm still so hesitant and slipping back into day trade mode. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing to be super careful but I choked my trades yesterday because I didn't want to see them even go barely red.

No positions going into Friday.

Notes & Open Trades:
  • No Positions

Please note I operate my risk with options that I can lose 100% of the premium. This is the safest way to trade them in my opinion. Even if I cut at 50% once I am setup to lose 100% within my risk threshold then I will stay ahead of my required R:R.
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IBKR really does offer an amazing swath of features to the widest possible geographic area. Impressive.
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Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.4m follower assets
16th June 2022 - Trading Journal & Market Breadth
Today's trading journal is brought to you by IBKR. I use them as my main brokerage for both investing and trading. As a European investor I have tried several different platforms and I can safely say they have the most comprehensive platform available to any EU based investor. In terms of platform power, safety and products (Stocks, Options, Futures etc.) You can check out the platform here.

Market Outlook:

I want to develop this section somewhat along with the tools I use to measure the market. I have been building some simple market breadth indicators and charts. These could be very useful to any trader or investor. h/t to StageAnalysis on Twitter for some inspiration on these. All of these are built in Tradingview.

$QQQ Stocks Above 100 Day, 150 Day & 50 Day

$SPXC Stocks Above 100Day, 150 Day & 50 Day

$SPXC $QQQ $IWM Stocks Above Short Term 20 Day Moving Average

$SPXC $QQQ New Highs/New Lows

The above charts are useful warning or buy signals. For the moving averages you want to see at least 30% of stocks move above the main averages before considering a buy and you want to see that trending upward. Same for New High/Lows. As you can see today we have made 618 New Lows while only making 2 New Highs! That is not a market you want to buy!

Pre Market Work:
Only stock that caught my eye today was $GO. But not looking for any swings while this level of selling is happening. Trimmed all my watchlists with the stocks that have been badly broken the past week.

Trading Day:
Executed a small but good $SPXC futures trade toward the end of the day today. I entered at $3642.00 with a stop at $3635 and a profit target of $3665. I sold after a few minutes at $3670 exactly. Perfect in and out trade. It's really nice when they work like this.
End of day Thoughts:

It's very important in a market like this not to force trades. I've said before that if I try to consistently day trade I get frustrated. When I am working toward swing trading it's interesting I find the one or two hit and run day trades much easier. It's as if there is no pressure and I am far more patient. It is such a different feeling to sitting down at the beginning of the day searching for trades to make.

I hope we begin to level out soon however for now I will remain patient and look to make small moves or none at all. Tomorrow is a large options expiry date volatility and shenanigans will be high!
Notes & Open Trades:
  • No Positions

Please note I operate my risk with options that I can lose 100% of the premium. This is the safest way to trade them in my opinion. Even if I cut at 50% once I am setup to lose 100% within my risk threshold then I will stay ahead of my required R:R.
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Good on your for keeping a trading journal. I've started at least 3 times but it never sticks. Do you journal daily?
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Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.4m follower assets
Risk vs Reward
If you make make 100 Trades with a starting amount of $100. The order of the wins and losses doesn't matter.

You lose 1% each time on 74 of those trades.

You gain 3% each time on 26 of those trades (compounding the principal).

You will finish up 2.5% even though you've been wrong 74% of the time.

Now if you think to yourself. I'm better than that I can improve my results.

So we'll say you're still wrong 74% of the time but you manage to pick better winners and hold them longer and you make 10% on each winner.

You will return 460%.
Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.4m follower assets
I caught this trade with futures contracts. Have moved my entire account by 3% with a tiny measured risk. I wrote the scenario in which I would take the trade in @joincommonstock this morning and it played out.

Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.4m follower assets
15th June 2022 - Trading Journal
Today's trading journal is brought to you by IBKR. I use them as my main brokerage for both investing and trading. As a European investor I have tried several different platforms and I can safely say they have the most comprehensive platform available to any EU based investor. In terms of platform power, safety and products (Stocks, Options, Futures etc.) You can check out the platform here.

Situational awareness:
Note: June 10th all my stops were hit and some trades I actually cut before the stop was hit: $ZM & $SHLX to be precise. The market action was dire and in times like this it's best just to step aside.

June 13th & 14th: I made some day trades - shorting $DOCU, $HES & $CVX intraday for opportunistic small moves with size on a heavy downtrend day. June 14th I had a small win on another intraday trade with $LI on Chinese strength.

Not much pre work was done on these trades and I find they are difficult for me to do consistently on a daily basis but in short hits here and there when the trade is very obvious or good RR I'm okay with it to give me a small green day when there is no point in looking at swing setups.
Pre Market Work:
With the FOMC meeting today I will be simply waiting to see what happens with that. I have been studying the $SPXC this morning for a potential "scenario". This is mainly just an exercise but nevertheless here it is.

When the market has these moments such as the Fed Meetings or catalysts it tends to make a quick fake move one way in the minutes after the announcement or news then reverse the opposite way. This could happen hard today. I have no idea which way that will occur if it does however here is a potential.

We make a quick red move after the meeting then hard rally upward toward the 3900 area. This would catch a lot of people offside and the market likes to do that. The reason for the 3900 area is the gap and the 10MA.

Or maybe the market plummets. Who knows. If i was to trade this scenario I would be using the current market low as my area to trade against. That way the risk is managed objectively and the upside is great in terms of RR. 10:1. If the stock moves up instantly and you miss your entry well then that's that. Never chase.

Again this is scenario building out of interest.

------------

In other notes a lot of names were reset but Chinese stocks are still looking like they are making interesting moves. $PDD & $LI in particular.

Trading Day:
I eventually took the $SPXC trade using Mini Futures. I executed it fairly okay. It could have been done better but the idea played out to perfection. This was the only trade I took today and moved my account almost 3% with an excellent RR and risk in check.
End of day Thoughts:
In trading you do not even need to be right 50% of the time. You can become a multi millionaire being wrong 80% of the time once the odds are skewed in your favour. If I can flip a coin over and over and receive 2 Dollars every time I hit heads and only lose 1 Dollar ever time I hit tails I will compound. Now imagine you win 3, 5 or 10. That coin flip can actually be rigged against you in terms of win rate and you will still come out ahead.

Stanley Druckenmiller says SIZE SIZE SIZE when you see your opportunity skewed heavily in your favour. Pradeep Bonde calls it picking up free money.

That is the essence of trading and getting that mindset.
Notes & Open Trades:
  • No Positions

Please note I operate my risk with options that I can lose 100% of the premium. This is the safest way to trade them in my opinion. Even if I cut at 50% once I am setup to lose 100% within my risk threshold then I will stay ahead of my required R:R.
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Irish Born Investor's avatar
$16.4m follower assets
How it Started: How it’s going:
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I said it before and will say it again. All these cryptos are destined to fail except bitcoin and maybe Eth as well. How decentralized/different from the FED is a coin that has a head figure like Vitalik?

PoS is also the worst egalitarian system there is and is similar to what we have today. Those with all the money decide on a lot of issues (think Bill Gates). Bitcoin and proof of work take that away and the supply is limited too
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