Moses Sternstein's avatar
$20.3m follower assets
New York, I love you, but you're bringing me down
The old guard of big cities is giving way to a new guard of something else

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Home prices & mortgage rates
It's obvious that mortgage rates drive property values, but by how much? Could be a lot. Here's a plot of home prices (blue) v. the value of an $100K 30year loan (red) (i.e. the present-value of the right to get $100k in 30 years):

It's not 1:1, but there's a strong relationship. When rates are low, money is plentiful, so the discount to "future money" is low (and therefore the present value of 100K-in-30y is high). A house bought with a mortgage is functionally a "future asset," so unsurprisingly, the present value is also relatively high (to the amount borrowed).

When rates go up, money-today becomes more valuable, whereas money-tomorrow becomes less. That's the red-line falling off a cliff. Homes are less liquid, so no reason to expect prices to follow a similar dive, but whatever is moving now, is definitely going to take a haircut. If rates stay high for a while . . . that blue line will eventually follow.
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Moses Sternstein's avatar
$20.3m follower assets
Social media gives us what we want, good and hard
The key is recognising when an individual using the app as a tool to further their goals vs when an individual feels addicted. Definitely a discussing that will gain only more momentum as time progresses
Moses Sternstein's avatar
$20.3m follower assets
Are student loans toxic?
Plus a little check in on $HD and $LOW where the short call was right, albeit too early . . . better late than never, I guess?
Wow China's economy really gained on the US since 2000!
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$SBUX hanging in
Earnest foottraffic shows the extraordinary gap between "downtown" and "not-downtown" locations. None has returned to pre-pandemic levels (except LA), but downtown is really struggling.
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Tiktok's run and Meta's comeback
From Ramp's spending analysis, $META is making a comeback, but man did TikTok make a run for marketshare
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This is 160% increase in Ad spend on TikTok— am I reading that right? Quite impressive, especially since TikTok is taking market share while ad spend is down overall.

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