Apple Inc

BioNTech SE - ADR

Moderna Inc

Nike, Inc. - Class B

Pfizer Inc.

Peloton Interactive Inc - Class A

Ralph Lauren Corp - Class A

Remember back in 2020-2021 when [$PTON](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24PTON&src=cashtag_click) was struggling to produce enough bikes and treadmills?

When they had to acquire a fitness equipment manufacturer for $420 million just to have more infrastructure to meet the unprecedented demand. Source: [https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/21/peloton-to-acquire-fitness-equipment-maker-precor-for-420-million.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/21/peloton-to-acquire-fitness-equipment-maker-precor-for-420-million.html)

When they spent another $400 million to produce their first manufacturing facility in the US, in the state of Ohio, as a way to skirt past the supply chain woes. Source: [https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/24/peloton-to-invest-400-million-on-first-us-production-facility-in-ohio.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/24/peloton-to-invest-400-million-on-first-us-production-facility-in-ohio.html)

Now, they're dealing with the opposite situation. A situation where demand has fallen off a cliff. A situation so severe that they now have to halt production. Source: [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html)

While Peloton is the COVID stock spending its time in the limelight as investors are shocked at how a fast-growing company could suddenly be sitting on a ton of products that people wanted yesterday.

This situation that Peloton is facing could also be something many more firms will face in the future. Inflation is through the roof. Supply chain issues are reducing consumer sentiment. Everything that we're seeing from empty shelves to a parade of cargo ships off the coast of SoCal is making people rethink their consumption habits.

Many say that we're in a shortage of various goods like semiconductors and vehicles. However, when looking at the data, this "shortage" is the cause of an unprecedented demand surge.

The chart below shows the huge supply-demand gap for consumer goods. Global Real Production of Goods has been increasing. Comparing that to the nominal demand of goods, production is dwarfed compared to demand.

![](https://cdn.commonstock.com/6507368e9279f2f171bf0fe93053d0f4a5c45e54cd11c1b17f368481072fc3d5-545x497.png)

As seen below, the output is well above pre-COVID levels. Producers are producing way more than ever!

![](https://cdn.commonstock.com/c13ce3fffec00a29af2f67bc776f0c9394d6a503dd638a81cac7ed614161d0a0-640x346.png)

And imports are well above pre-COVID levels too! Despite the congestion at the ports, we manage to continue to import more product than ever.

![](https://cdn.commonstock.com/f0a090ea33fabbf002259dfa3adc2eb5e442038985352783af73d2068e449937-640x345.png)

As for the semiconductor industry, chipmakers are making more chips than ever. Every year, since 2019, chipmakers continue to expand their production of chips.

![](https://cdn.commonstock.com/d66907749fc47f134a9d1750ec4a64f36665dce43e3f6c244e588217b5c24ba7-640x289.png)

While the production of chips has been increasing consistently from 2019 to 2020, the unprecedented demand for chips in 2020 promoted chipmakers to expand production aggressively. That's why we see an acceleration in chipmaking in 2021.

While we might be seeing retail sales data (like the one below) today, in the future, that number could drop as consumers start to cut back on consumption and wait until these issues with "shortages" and supply chain issues get sorted out.

![](https://cdn.commonstock.com/9f84f269126b7a4f3e2a8fb6d9ad3a249d9db18607f2f384c43b0918813e8e2e-640x362.png)

And don't forget that it's not only Peloton that's seeing demand for goods slowing. $AAPL told its suppliers in late December that it's seeing demand for their new iPhones slowing as well. Source: [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-02/apple-tells-suppliers-iphone-demand-has-slowed-as-holidays-near](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-02/apple-tells-suppliers-iphone-demand-has-slowed-as-holidays-near)

As for the vaccine makers like $MRNA $BNTX and $PFE, they too are seeing demand for their vaccines slowing as well. The mad rush for boosters was quite temporary and many of the vaccinated are resisting the urge to get the booster because they don't see a point in getting it when bureaucrats and pharmaceutical companies are looking to add a 4th dose.

Google's Chromebooks are seeing lower demand: [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/intel-loses-ground-to-amd-as-demand-for-chromebook-chips-wanes](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/intel-loses-ground-to-amd-as-demand-for-chromebook-chips-wanes)

These few instances are just the beginning. We will soon see slowing sales for physical goods as time goes on. And with that possibility, we can see firms resorting to the sale of digital goods. $NKE and $RL are some of the retailers that look to benefit massively from resorting to the sale of NFT virtual clothing if ever demand for their physical clothes falls off a cliff.

_If there's one lesson I've learned from my high school economics class, it's that the peak of the Roaring '20s was evident when consumers started consuming less._

13h ago @Gautam__Baid tweeted: ""A pin lies in wait for every bubble. An.." - read what others are saying and join the conversation.

https://twitter.com/search?q=%24PTON&src=cashtag_click

$PTON - Twitter Search

Intel Corp. ceded more than 2 percentage points of market share to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. in the third quarter, marking another setback for a chip pioneer that has lost some of its technology edge.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/intel-loses-ground-to-amd-as-demand-for-chromebook-chips-wanes

Intel Loses Ground to AMD as Demand for Chromebook Chips Wanes

Apple Inc., suffering from a global supply crunch, is now confronting a different problem: slowing demand.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-02/apple-tells-suppliers-iphone-demand-has-slowed-as-holidays-near

Apple Tells Suppliers iPhone Demand Has Slowed as Holidays Near

Peloton plans to acquire the exercise equipment manufacturer Precor for $420 million, in a bid to speed up its production and meet promised delivery windows. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/21/peloton-to-acquire-fitness-equipment-maker-precor-for-420-million.html

Peloton shares soar after company announces $420 million deal for fitness equipment maker Precor

Peloton announced it will invest $400 million to build its first factory in the United States, in Troy Township in Wood County, Ohio. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/24/peloton-to-invest-400-million-on-first-us-production-facility-in-ohio.html

Peloton to invest $400 million to build its first U.S. manufacturing facility in Ohio

Peloton is temporarily halting production of its connected fitness products, according to internal documents obtained by CNBC. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html

Peloton to halt production of its Bikes, treadmills as demand wanes

Peloton's woes could be a preview of what's about to come

Dissecting the Markets

Ethereum

![](https://cdn.commonstock.com/6a89856711dcf861a4117749ce3a6dfb7d4d5ef000bef3b15d6f4a5a26694ba6-577x432.jpg?w=704&fit=max)
$ETH.X

Why isn’t ETH burning a gimmicky financial engineering narrative? What intrinsic value is associated with burning ETH?

This member connected a brokerage account and is sharing trades and portfolio performance with the community. 

Public Portfolio

Rick Gurner

Any brand with access to capital can buy more market share with more marketing dollars.

The truly unique & high quality brands (GoodRx and Duolingo come to mind) don’t need to. They can more heavily lean on their passionate, loyal customers to market for them.

Unaided brand awareness is a wonderful thing. It creates the path of least resistance for delivering sustainably lofty & profitable compounding.

The Power of a Brand 

This member is verified by the Commonstock team based on their contributions to the Commonstock community. 

Verified Member

Bradley Freeman

2022 hasn't started off so hot, but 2021 was great :)

![](https://cdn.commonstock.com/1f5500dafb73c08743151886c964d2863eb5245aa706807c50bc1e8513f82476-974x782.png)
$ETH.X

Best Trade of 2021: Ethereum

Doug Helton

MercadoLibre Inc

Seems like the fundamentals are there for $MELI

My take is that the recent drop in share price is just thematic rotation away from growth stocks.

@wolfofharcourt dives into some $MELI metrics more. Check it out:
https://commonstock.com/memo/b2f1c258-137d-42c1-808b-2ec5c33f088c by @wolfofharcourt

https://commonstock.com/memo/b2f1c258-137d-42c1-808b-2ec5c33f088c

Wolf of Harcourt Street

Heister Pierce is one of five commissioners at the SEC. She was sworn in back in 2018 and will serve until (approximately) 2025.

We like Heister because she doesn’t treat investors like children.

The SEC uses “investor protection” as justification to instate rules that make it harder for retail investors to get the same access to opportunities as institutions.

Hester points out that ‘investor opportunity’ is just as important as ‘investor protection’:

Heister Pierce:

“When confronted with new technologies, new products, and new ways of doing things,
the regulator’s tendency is to say no instead of yes, to say stop instead of go, to see danger instead of possibility… 

The SEC’s focus is appropriately on investor protection, particularly retail investor protection, and market integrity...[but] investor opportunity matters too. By investor opportunity, I mean the chance for investors to try new products and services, to include in their portfolios new types of assets, to use the latest technologies, to get in on the ground floor of new opportunities, to experiment and learn from investment successes and failures...

Investors want protection from fraud and easy access to robust disclosures, but they also want to be able to interact with their financial firms using the latest technologies, to have access to the full range of investment options, and to take charge of their financial future by spending their hard earned money as they see fit. 

Investors at times may be willing to take on more risk than the regulator thinks is prudent. A healthy regulatory response would resist the urge to override investor decisions and instead engage and educate investors using the same technologies through which they are investing.”

We like Heister Pierce!

![image](https://cdn.commonstock.com/844caeccaa8ce449377db089692b16f94e4b8446f7a8856498655af0071d9cd5-988x1307.png)


[https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/peirce-iac-090921](https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/peirce-iac-090921)

Remarks at Meeting of Investor Advisory Committee
September 9, 2021

https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/peirce-iac-090921

SEC.gov | Remarks at Meeting of Investor Advisory Committee

Why we like Heister Pierce

New position in ETH

Bought ETH

I'm expecting a parabolic run up in December just like there was in the 2017 cycle. If the trend holds we'll see $ETH.X at $10k.

Apologies for what is essentially a pump post. But wanted to share my verified trade so you know I have skin in the game (and also I am _very biased_)